Calculating attributable cancer incidence: waste
- The text on this page is taken from an equivalent page of the IEHIAS-project.
Estimating attributable cancer incidence around an incinerator The basic formula to compute the number of cancer cases attributable to an incinerator is:
- AC = Rateunex * ER * Popexp
where:
- AC = the attributable cancer incidence
- Rateunex = background incidence rate in the general population
- ER = excess risk in the exposed population (relative risk – 1)
- Popexp = number of exposed people
A systematic review of the literature was conducted to derive the appropriate relative risk (Porta et al, 2009). This showed that the study by Elliott et al (2006) provides the best starting point for assessment (in terms of relative risk by distance from an incinerator).
Nevertheless, it is likely that the excess risk is not constant over time, but varies for a specific individual of the population at a give age and specific time as a function of various characteristics:
- level of attained cumulative exposure;
- latency since first exposure; and
- latency since cessation of exposure (if any).
We therefore need to assume a theoretical model of cancer occurrence and to impute the varying excess risk around different incinerators, as a function of the different characteristic of the plant and of the nearby population.
The attached excel file provides a simple calculator to estimate the attributable number of cancer cases in a specific population given a specific date of start of the plant.
References
- Elliott, P., Shaddick, G., Kleinschmidt, I., Jolley, D., Walls, P., Beresford, J. and Grundy, C. 1996 Cancer incidence near municipal solid waste incinerators in Great Britain. British Journal of Cancer 73, 702-710.
- Porta, D., Milani, S., Lazzarino, A.I., Perucci, C.A. and Forastiere, F. 2009 Systematic review of epidemiological studies on health effects associated with management of solid waste. Environmental Health 8:60.
