EXPEDITE

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The EXPEDITE meta-models have been developed to explore policy options and impacts on different segments of the transport markets in the European context. The EXPEDITE project and the EXPEDITE models exploit existing international and national transport models in particular the SCENES model. The EXPEDITE meta-model extends the available national models to cover the whole (future) EU. In this extension it is not of vital importance that models for all countries in the EU are included, but that the most relevant segments of the local travelling population in the EU are included in the models used and expanded properly. The outcomes are calibrated to observed base-year distributions for transport in the respective zones. The passenger meta-model can be used to predict the travel demand in terms of tours (tours are defined here as round trips that start and end at home) and passenger-kilometres by mode, travel purpose, distance band and detailed population segment (about 1,000 in total) generated in each of the NUTS2 zones for the base year 1995, the future reference year 2020 and several intermediate years. Moreover this model can be used to give the impact of many changes in policy variables, such as the travel time and cost of the different modes. It can also give a measure of the overall welfare change (direct effects) caused by a policy. This model also includes area-wide speed-flow curves to take account of the feedback effect of changes in congestion due to policies that induce a change in the amount of car use. The EXPEDITE freight meta-model has the same "look and feel" as the passenger meta-model, but is conceptually simpler. The EXPEDITE meta-model can only give the impact in terms of tonnes and tonne-kilometres of changes in policy variables such as the transport time and cost by mode, on top of the levels given by the models SCENES and NEAC.[1]

Result

Typical Model Applications:

The meta-models for freight and passengers have been used (together with the SCENES model),

  • to simulate reference scenarios;
  • to simulate the impact of a large number of policy measures;
  • to identify policy-sensitive and non-sensitive market segments;
  • to reach statements about feasible and efficient bundles of policy measures.

Policy evaluation modules, which use the policy impacts on travel demand from the meta-models as inputs, have been developed to simulate other impacts of the policy measures on society such as emissions, noise and accidents.[1]

Standard Model Specification:

EXPEDITE meta-model for passenger transport:

The modes considered for passenger transport are:

  • car driver
  • car passenger
  • train
  • bus/tram/metro
  • non-motorised modes

Furthermore, several population segments are distinguished (e.g. household car ownership, age, income class, travel purpose and area type).[1]

Segmentation of the full meta-model for passenger transport:

  • travel purpose:

- commuting;

- business travel;

- education;

- shopping;

- other purposes,

age:

  • under 18;
  • 18-65;
  • 65 and older,

�gender:

  • male;
  • female,

�occupation:

  • employed;
  • not employed,

�household size:

  • one-person household;
  • two-persons household;
  • three-persons household;
  • four-or-more-persons household,

household income class:

  • net annual income below 11300 Euros;
  • net annual income 11300-18200 Euros;
  • net annual income 18200-29500 Euros;
  • net annual income 29500-38600 Euros;
  • net annual income above 38600 Euros,
  • and car ownership (four categories):
  • person in a household without a car;
  • person without a driving licence in a household with a car;
  • person with a driving licence in a household that has more driving licences than cars (car competition in household);
  • persons with a driving licence in a household that has at least as many cars as licences (car freely available).[1]

EXPEDITE meta-model for freight transport:

The EXPEDITE meta-model can only give the impact in terms of tonnes and tonne-kilometres of changes in policy variables such as the transport time and cost by mode, on top of the levels given by the models SCENES and NEAC.

The modes used in the meta-model for freight transport are:

  • lorry;
  • conventional train;
  • combined road-rail transport;
  • inland waterways transport;
  • maritime transport.

Furthermore the model distinguishes between NUTS2 zones (which can be aggregated, e.g. to countries), distance class and commodity class (bulk, petroleum and petroleum products, general cargo).[1]

Behavioural assumptions:

The underlying national models for passengers are disaggregate models (the unit of observation is the person or household). These models assume that persons and households choose between discrete options on the basis of subjective utility maximisation.

Energy-environment module:

Average factors by country from the literature to be combined with vehicle km.

Dynamic structure:

Static `long run equilibrium' model.

Main model results:

Forecasts for passenger and freight transport for Europe for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

  • Development of passenger kilometres, tours, tonnes and tonne kilometrage
  • growth of long distance transport, general cargo, etc.[1]

Required technical infrastructure:

PC Software tool. Can be run on any modern PC, no specific software required.

Structure of Input Data:

It is not an explicit network model;

Other Data:

e.g.: Scenes Internet database: Information on a NUTS3 level on:

The SCENES Internet Database contains base year data for 31 indicators, which belong to the domains population and area, employment, economy, technology, trade, transport and tourism:

  • Population and area: Area, Population by age and sex, Population by profession, Population by level of education, Pupils and students, Motorisation, Households by size, Disposable income of households, Household expenditures.
  • Employment: Employment by sectors, Unemployment.
  • Economy: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Value Added (GVA) by sectors, Gross capital formation by sectors, Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power Standard (PPS).
  • Technology: R&D expenditures, Patent applications, R&D personnel.
  • Trade: Import/ export (tons), Import/ export (values).
  • Transport: Vehicle stock, Infrastructure road, Infrastructure rail, Infrastructure inland waterways, Infrastructure pipelines, Transport volume, Transport performance.
  • Tourism: Accommodations, beds, rooms, overnight stays.[1]

Base year data and baseline assumptions:

Base year: see above. For future year inputs (income, population, employment, costs), a reference scenario is used, largely based on SCENES. Motorisation however was based on ASTRA forecasts.

Calibration:

The EXPEDITE models have been calibrated to 1995 national mode and distance band distributions. The underlying models were estimated on national travel surveys (trip diary data).

Model Extensions:

In the ongoing SUMMA project the model is extended to include a detailed evaluation module and forecasts of the composition of the vehicle park from TREMOVE.

Links to other Models, Projects, Networks:

In many respects EXPEDITE uses results of the SCENES model/project. Regarding the Scenarios used there are interrelationships between many European studies. Results of the study SCENARIOS (finalised in 2000), e.g., have been used in other studies such as FORECAST 2020 (finalised in 1999), STREAMS (finalised in 2000), SCENES (finalised 2001) and ASTRA (finalised in 2001).[1]

Within the EXPEDITE project the EXPEDITE meta-models have been used along with many other models. These include:

Passenger transport:

European models:

STREAMS/SCENES;

National models:

  • the Dutch national model system (NMS or LMS);
  • the Norwegian national model system (NTM-4);
  • the Italian decision support system (SISD);
  • the Danish national model;
  • the Swedish national model (SAMPERS);

Freight transport:

European models:

  • STREAMS/SCENES;
  • NEAC;

National models:

  • the Norwegian national model system (NEMO);
  • the Italian decision support system (SISD);
  • the Swedish national model (SAMGODC);
  • the Belgian (Walloon Region) model (WFTM);

Regional Scope:

Both EXPEDITE meta-models cover the following countries (at the NUTS2 level):

  • "he EU15; Norway; Switzerland; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; Poland; Hungary; The Czech Republic; Slovakia; Slovenia.[1]

See also

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 JRC: IA TOOLS. Supporting inpact assessment in the European Commission. [1]
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