Uncertainty

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<section begin=glossary />
Uncertainty refers not only to statistical uncertainty. The typology used in INTARESE builds on an adapted version of the Walker & Harremoës framework.
One dimension of uncertainties is the location of uncertainties (where the uncertainty is located). For most models it is applicable to distinguish between:
  • context
  • model structure
  • inputs
  • parameters
  • model outcome (result)
For the other dimension of uncertainties it is distinguished between three levels of uncertainties:
  • statistical uncertainty (known outcomes, known probabilities)
  • scenario uncertainty (known outcomes, unknown probabilities)
  • identified ignorance (unknown outcomes, unknown probabilities).<section end=glossary />

References

The uncertainty report by WP 1.5.