Difference between revisions of "Climate change"

Revision as of 06:44, 17 July 2006

This page contains an assessment of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. the data used in this assessment is climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.

The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome

Focus

To study the causes that contribute to climate change and the health effects that derive from the changes in the climate.

Scope

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:

"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)." (Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)

The main questions in scoping are:

A. what should be chosen as the location under scrutiny

• local microclimate(s)
• regional mesoclimate(s)
• global macroclimate

B. how should we define the "long period of time"?

• order of 10¹ years - 10² years
• order of 10³ years - 10⁵ years
• order of 10⁶ years - 10⁸ years

Main indicators

?

Causal chain

• Driving force:
• Pressure:
• States:
• Exposure:
• Effects:
• Action:

Value judgements

?

"Vieraskynä" articles in brief

Prof. Matti Saarnisto (Geology) [1Ma-100Ma / 10a-1Ma]

Climate change
⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ weather changes

⇐ shifting of airflows

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ Reduction of CO2 in atmosphere through disintegration

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ sun energy impact on earth

⇐ changes in earth's orbit

⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ sun energy impact on earth

⇐ earth's inclination

VP Mikko Alestalo, (Meteorology) [1ka-10ka / 10a-100a]

⇒ melting of glaciers
Climate change
⇐ sun radiation variation

⇐ ashes from volcanic eruptions

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities)

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting of glaciers

Doc. Esko Kuusisto (Hydrology) [10-100a]

Climate change
⇐ water circulation

⇐ use of land

⇐ CO2 emissions to atmosphere

⇐ burning of fossil fuels

⇐ creation of pleasant microclimates for humans

Doc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck (Environmental Engineering) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇍ CO2 increase in atmosphere
← today's arctic temperatures compared to 1930's (reliable) arctic temperatures are approximately the same
← climate models produce unreliable results of greenhouse effect

← together the following

• effects of water vapour are not understood theoretically
• climate models overestimate the strengthening effects of water vapour
• climate models overestimate the total amount of fossil fuels

Prof. Markku Wilenius (Futures research) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ changes in ocean behaviour (ocean streams)

⇐ warming of oceans

⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

⇐ economical control systems

Res. Jari Lyytimäki [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ reduction in snow and ice covers

⇒ changes in living conditions of animals adapted to winters

⇒ changes in natural lighting conditions

⇒ changes in living conditions of organisms living in lakes

⇒ increased need of artificial lighting

⇒ increased energy use

⇒ psychological effects

⇒ increased travelling "to sun"

⇒ increased energy use

Man. Teija Lahti-Nuuttila (Energy & Environment Technology) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gas emissions

⇐ consumption

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

⇐ use of new techologies

⇐ political &economical control systems

⇐ technological development

Man. Veikko Marttila (Agriculture & Forestry) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ increased(?) crop yields
⇒ increase of forest downfalls
⇒ increase of pest insects & mycoses

⇒ further increase of forest downfalls

⇒ difficulties in wood harvest

⇒ difficulties in wood use

⇒ changes in fish populations

⇒ alterations in fish farming conditions

⇒ new needs in communal construction
⇒ increase in animal & algae transmitted diseases

⇒ changed demands for public health care