Difference between revisions of "Climate change"
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== Causal chain == | == Causal chain == | ||
| − | *'''Driving force''': | + | *'''Driving force''': Climate is changing and it has / will have various kinds of effects on human health |
| − | *''' | + | *'''Pressures''': Changing of climate seems apparent, but its causes are not fully understood which causes a lot of uncertainty to predicting future changes, their effects and making decisions about actions |
| − | *'''States''': | + | *'''States''': ? |
| − | *'''Exposure''': | + | *'''Exposure''': Everyone on earth is exposed to climate change, regional and local differences in weather (particular manifestation of climate) can be very big |
| − | *'''Effects''': | + | *'''Effects''': victims of flooding & storms, increase in animal transmitted diseases, potential effects stemming from problems in global food care and clean water delivery, psychological effects of changes in natural lighting conditions |
| − | *''' | + | *'''Actions''': political and economical control systems & technological development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to atmosphere coming from industrial activity, transportation and consumption |
| − | |||
== Value judgements == | == Value judgements == | ||
Revision as of 07:34, 17 July 2006
This page contains an assessment of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. the data used in this assessment is climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.
The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome
Contents
Focus
To study the causes that contribute to climate change and the health effects that derive from the changes in the climate.
Scope
According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:
"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)." (Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)
some important questions in scoping are:
A. what should be chosen as the location under scrutiny
- local microclimate(s)
- regional mesoclimate(s)
- global macroclimate
B. how should we define the "long period of time"?
- order of 101 years - 102 years
- order of 103 years - 105 years
- order of 106 years - 108 years
Main indicators
?
Causal chain
- Driving force: Climate is changing and it has / will have various kinds of effects on human health
- Pressures: Changing of climate seems apparent, but its causes are not fully understood which causes a lot of uncertainty to predicting future changes, their effects and making decisions about actions
- States: ?
- Exposure: Everyone on earth is exposed to climate change, regional and local differences in weather (particular manifestation of climate) can be very big
- Effects: victims of flooding & storms, increase in animal transmitted diseases, potential effects stemming from problems in global food care and clean water delivery, psychological effects of changes in natural lighting conditions
- Actions: political and economical control systems & technological development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to atmosphere coming from industrial activity, transportation and consumption
Value judgements
?
"Vieraskynä" articles in brief
Prof. Matti Saarnisto (Geology) [1Ma-100Ma / 10a-1Ma]
Climate change
⇐ differences in global heat transfer
- ⇐ changes in ocean streams
- ⇐ movement of tectonic plates
⇐ shifting of airflows
- ⇐ creation of mountain chains
- ⇐ movement of tectonic plates
⇐ Reduction of CO2 in atmosphere through disintegration
- ⇐ creation of mountain chains
- ⇐ movement of tectonic plates
⇐ differences in global heat transfer
- ⇐ changes in ocean streams
- ⇐ melting rate of glaciers
- ⇐ sun radiation balance on earth
- ⇐ changes in earth's orbit
- ⇐ sun radiation balance on earth
- ⇐ melting rate of glaciers
⇐ differences in global heat transfer
- ⇐ changes in ocean streams
- ⇐ melting rate of glaciers
- ⇐ sun radiation balance on earth
- ⇐ earth's inclination
- ⇐ sun radiation balance on earth
- ⇐ melting rate of glaciers
VP Mikko Alestalo, (Meteorology) [1ka-10ka / 10a-100a]
⇒ melting of glaciers
Climate change
⇐ sun radiation variation
- ⇐ ashes from volcanic eruptions
⇐ increase of greenhouse gases
- ⇐ human activities
⇐ changes in ocean streams
- ⇐ melting of glaciers
Doc. Esko Kuusisto (Hydrology) [10-100a]
Climate change
⇐ water circulation
- ⇐ use of land
⇐ CO2 emissions to atmosphere
- ⇐ burning of fossil fuels
- ⇐ creation of pleasant microclimates for humans
Doc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck (Environmental Engineering) [10a-100a]
Climate change
⇍ CO2 increase in atmosphere
← today's arctic temperatures compared to 1930's (reliable) arctic temperatures are approximately the same
← climate models produce unreliable results of greenhouse effect
- ← together the following
- effects of water vapour are not understood theoretically
- climate models overestimate the strengthening effects of water vapour
- climate models overestimate the total amount of fossil fuels
Prof. Markku Wilenius (Futures research) [10a-100a]
Climate change
⇐ changes in ocean behaviour (ocean streams)
- ⇐ warming of oceans
- ⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth
- ⇐ increase of greenhouse gases
- ⇐ human activities
- ⇐ economical control systems
- ⇐ human activities
- ⇐ increase of greenhouse gases
- ⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth
Res. Jari Lyytimäki [10a-100a]
Climate change
⇒ reduction in snow and ice covers
- ⇒ changes in living conditions of animals adapted to winters
- ⇒ changes in natural lighting conditions
- ⇒ changes in living conditions of organisms living in lakes
- ⇒ increased need of artificial lighting
- ⇒ increased energy use
- ⇒ psychological effects
- ⇒ increased travelling "to sun"
- ⇒ increased energy use
- ⇒ increased travelling "to sun"
Man. Teija Lahti-Nuuttila (Energy & Environment Technology) [10a-100a]
Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gas emissions
- ⇐ consumption
- ⇐ political & economical control systems
- ⇐ technological development
- ⇐ use of new techologies
- ⇐ political &economical control systems
- ⇐ technological development
Man. Veikko Marttila (Agriculture & Forestry) [10a-100a]
Climate change
⇒ increased(?) crop yields
⇒ increase of forest downfalls
⇒ increase of pest insects & mycoses
- ⇒ further increase of forest downfalls
⇒ difficulties in wood harvest
- ⇒ difficulties in wood use
⇒ changes in fish populations
- ⇒ alterations in fish farming conditions
⇒ new needs in communal construction
⇒ increase in animal & algae transmitted diseases
- ⇒ changed demands for public health care
