Difference between revisions of "Climate change"

Revision as of 12:32, 17 July 2006

This page contains an assessment of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. the data used in this assessment is climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.

The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome

Focus

To study the causes that contribute to climate change and the potential health effects that derive from the expected changes in the climate.

Scope

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:

"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)." (Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)

A. Climate can further be defined to:

• local microclimate(s)
• regional mesoclimate(s)
• global macroclimate

B. and the "long period of time" could be e.g. in the:

• order of 10¹ years - 10³ years
• order of 10³ years - 10⁶ years
• order of 10⁶ years - 10⁸ years

In this assessment the spatial scope is chosen as to consider global macroclimate, but also considering the implications of the global changes on regional and local scales. In this assessment it is better to limit the considerations primarily on the temporal scope of 10¹ - 10³ years, but it is important at least to also recognize the factors that affect climate change on longer timesacales as well. Health effects of climate change on a longer timescale than 10³ years include so much uncertainty that they are not considered here.

Main indicators

?

Causal chain

• Driving force: Climate is changing and it has / will have various kinds of potential effects on human health
• Pressures: Changing of climate seems apparent, but its causes are not fully understood which causes a lot of uncertainty to predicting future changes, their effects and making decisions about actions
• States: ?
• Exposure: Everyone on earth is exposed to climate change, regional and local differences in weather (particular, local manifestation of climate) can be very big
• Effects: victims of flooding & storms, increase in animal transmitted diseases, potential effects stemming from problems in global food care and clean water delivery, psychological effects of changes in natural lighting conditions
• Actions: political and economical control systems & technological development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to atmosphere coming from industrial activity, transportation and consumption

Value judgements

?

"Vieraskynä" articles in brief

Prof. Matti Saarnisto (Geology) [1Ma-100Ma / 10a-1Ma]

Climate change
⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ shifting of airflows

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ Reduction of CO2 in atmosphere through disintegration

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ changes in earth's orbit

⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ earth's inclination

VP Mikko Alestalo, (Meteorology) [1ka-10ka / 10a-100a]

⇒ melting of glaciers
Climate change
⇐ sun radiation variation

⇐ ashes from volcanic eruptions

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting of glaciers

Doc. Esko Kuusisto (Hydrology) [10-100a]

Climate change
⇐ water circulation

⇐ use of land

⇐ CO2 emissions to atmosphere

⇐ burning of fossil fuels

⇐ creation of pleasant microclimates for humans

Doc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck (Environmental Engineering) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇍ CO2 increase in atmosphere
← today's arctic temperatures compared to 1930's (reliable) arctic temperatures are approximately the same
← climate models produce unreliable results of greenhouse effect

← together the following

• effects of water vapour are not understood theoretically
• climate models overestimate the strengthening effects of water vapour
• climate models overestimate the total amount of fossil fuels

Prof. Markku Wilenius (Futures research) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ changes in ocean behaviour (ocean streams)

⇐ warming of oceans

⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

⇐ economical control systems

Res. Jari Lyytimäki [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ reduction in snow and ice covers

⇒ changes in living conditions of animals adapted to winters

⇒ changes in natural lighting conditions

⇒ changes in living conditions of organisms living in lakes

⇒ increased need of artificial lighting

⇒ increased energy use

⇒ psychological effects

⇒ increased travelling "to sun"

⇒ increased energy use

Man. Teija Lahti-Nuuttila (Energy & Environment Technology) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gas emissions

⇐ consumption

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

⇐ use of new techologies

⇐ political &economical control systems

⇐ technological development

Man. Veikko Marttila (Agriculture & Forestry) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ increased(?) crop yields
⇒ increase of forest downfalls
⇒ increase of pest insects & mycoses

⇒ further increase of forest downfalls

⇒ difficulties in wood harvest

⇒ difficulties in wood use

⇒ changes in fish populations

⇒ alterations in fish farming conditions

⇒ new needs in communal construction
⇒ increase in animal & algae transmitted diseases

⇒ changed demands for public health care