Difference between revisions of "SETURI: National estimates of DALY of environmental risks"

Revision as of 12:07, 18 December 2007

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The purpose of this page is to serve as a forum for estimating DALYs due to exposure to environmental and other risks.

Study plan for estimation of DALYs in FInland, Norway and the Netherlands

Working group in Finland

• Eero Priha, TTL
• Timo Kauppinen, TTL
• Päivi Kurttio, STUK
• Juha Pekkanen, KTL
• Tero Hirvonen, KTL
• Timo Ståhl, Stakes

General procedure

The work will start with selected exposures after which more exposures will be analyzed. The emphasis is on comparability, which means that we will not be able to analyze all exposures and all outcomes. The aim is to analyze current exposures and their consequences.

First, the current exposure distribution is estimated for all Finns (or only those exposed). Based on this exposure distribution and the uncertainties in its estimations, the best guess for the average exposure in Finland (or among those exposed) is estimated together with its uncertainty as a distribution. The uncertainty in the average exposure is expressed by almost lowest possible (5th percentile) and the almost highest possible (95th percentile) value for the average exposure (more details below).

In addition to current average exposure, one needs to determine, which is the lowest feasibly achievable average exposure in Finland. For several substances, this is not zero, e.g. there is a natural background for particulate air pollution.

Second, exposure/dose-response functions and their uncertainties (as above) are derived for all possible outcome. It is important that the exposure/dose-response function using exatly the same exposure/dose marker that was used in the exposure estimation above (more details below).

Third, attributable number of cases is estimated by multiplying the exposure with exposure/dose-response and number of exposed using probabilistic methods (Monte-Carlo)

List of potential exposures that should be considered in the evaluation

Criteria 1) Public health effects 2) Concern 3) High exposures in specific groups

• Alcohol, metanol
• Particulate air pollution by source
• Ozone
• CO and NO2 (probably included in the above)
• PAHs
• Environmental tobacco smoke
• CO indoors
• Benzene
• Formaldehyde, naphthalene, hexane, asetaldehyde
• 1,3-butadiene
• Lead
• Damp housing
• Noise
• Foodborn epidemics
• Waterborn epidemics
• Chlorination by-products
• Arsenic
• Fluoride
• Dioxin, PCBs, phtalates
• Methyl mercury, mercury
• Radon
• UV radiation
• EMF
• Man-made radiation
• Chemicals in food (acrylamide, pesticides, food additives)
• Accidents (traffic, occupational, domestic/other)

Provisional list of selected exposures and responsible persons

Radon, STUK/Päivi Kurttio and ? Alcohol, STAKES/Timo Ståhl Fine particles, KTL/Juha Pekkanen, Olli Leino? Dioxins, KTL/Juha Pekkanen, Olli Leino? ?Damp housing, KTL/Aino Nevalainen, Ulla Haverinen Arsenic, KTL/Hannu Komulainen ?Methyl mercury, KTL/Juha Pekkanen, Olli Leino?

Exposure estimation

Dose-response assessment

Estimation of DALYs

Probabilistic risk assessment

Example on how to link a file to the pages This table gives the estimated exposure distribution for selected exposures