Climate change

This page contains an assessment of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. the data used in this assessment is climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.

The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome

Focus

To study the causes that contribute to climate change and the potential health effects that derive from the expected changes in the climate.

Scope

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:

"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)." (Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)

A. Climate can further be defined to:

• local microclimate(s)
• regional mesoclimate(s)
• global macroclimate

B. and the "long period of time" could be e.g. in the:

• order of 10¹ years - 10³ years
• order of 10³ years - 10⁶ years
• order of 10⁶ years - 10⁸ years

In this assessment the spatial scope is chosen as to consider global macroclimate, but also considering the implications of the global changes on regional and local scales. In this assessment it is better to limit the considerations primarily on the temporal scope of 10¹ - 10³ years, but it is important at least to also recognize the factors that affect climate change on longer timesacales as well. Health effects of climate change on a longer timescale than 10³ years include so much uncertainty that they are not considered here.

• Population: whole human population, on considering regional implications North Europe, Finland in particular
• Health effects: directly climate change induced deaths/injuries, climate change induced diseases, climate change induced psychological effects, effects of changes in food/water supply, changes in living environment
• Methods: Existing literature studied with Pyrkilö method

Main indicators

• Global average temperature?
• CO₂ content in atmosphere?
• CO₂ emissions of human activities?
• average temperature of surface waters in big oceans?
• amount of strong storms/year?
• sizes of polar glaciers?
• sun activity?
• start/end times of annual snow/ice covered/free periods in arctic areas?

Causal chain

• Driving force: astronomical factors, volcanic activity, activity of the sun and human activity
• Pressures: changes in radiation balance on earth ⇒ climate change
• States: more storms, global warming, extreme weathers increasing, changes in living environment for different species
• Exposure: Everyone on earth is exposed to climate change, regional and local differences in weather (particular, local manifestation of climate) and the outcomes of it can be very big
• Effects: victims of flooding & storms, increase in animal transmitted diseases, potential effects stemming from problems in global food care and clean water delivery, psychological effects of changes in natural lighting conditions
• Actions: political and economical control systems & technological development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to atmosphere coming from industrial activity, transportation and consumption, adaptation of health care systems to the changing demands, communal construction changes to meet the upcoming requirements/conditions, adaptation/preparation of agriculture/forestry...

Value judgements

?

"Vieraskynä" articles in brief

Prof. Matti Saarnisto (Geology) [1Ma-100Ma / 10a-1Ma]

Climate change
⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ increase of sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ changes in earth's orbit

⇐ earth's inclination

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ shifting of airflows

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ decrease of sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ reduction of CO2 in atmosphere through disintegration

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

VP Mikko Alestalo, (Meteorology) [1ka-10ka / 10a-100a]

⇒ rising of sea levels

⇒ melting of glaciers
Climate change
⇐ sun radiation variation ⇐ ashes from volcanic eruptions ⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities (population growth, use of fossil fuels, world politics)

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting of glaciers

Doc. Esko Kuusisto (Hydrology) [10-100a]

Climate change
⇐ water circulation

⇐ use of land

⇐ CO2 emissions to atmosphere

⇐ burning of fossil fuels

⇐ creation of pleasant microclimates for humans

Doc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck (Environmental Engineering) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇍ CO2 increase in atmosphere
← today's arctic temperatures compared to 1930's (reliable) arctic temperatures are approximately the same
← climate models produce unreliable results of greenhouse effect

← together the following

• effects of water vapour are not understood theoretically
• climate models overestimate the strengthening effects of water vapour
• climate models overestimate the total amount of fossil fuels

Prof. Markku Wilenius (Futures research) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ changes in ocean behaviour (ocean streams)

⇐ warming of oceans

⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

⇐ economical control systems

Res. Jari Lyytimäki [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ reduction in snow and ice covers

⇒ changes in living conditions of animals adapted to winters

⇒ changes in natural lighting conditions

⇒ changes in living conditions of organisms living in lakes

⇒ increased need of artificial lighting

⇒ increased energy use

⇒ psychological effects

⇒ increased travelling "to sun"

⇒ increased energy use

Man. Teija Lahti-Nuuttila (Energy & Environment Technology) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gas emissions

⇐ industrial activity, transportation, consumption

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

⇐ use of new techologies

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

Man. Veikko Marttila (Agriculture & Forestry) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ increased(?) crop yields
⇒ increase of storms

⇒ increase of forest downfalls

⇒ increase of pest insects & mycoses

⇒ further increase of forest downfalls

⇒ difficulties in wood harvest

⇒ difficulties in wood use

⇒ warming of waters

⇒ changes in fish populations

⇒ alterations in fish farming conditions

⇒ new needs in communal construction
⇒ increase in animal & algae transmitted diseases

⇒ changed demands for public health care