Introduction to risk modelling and decision analysis (course in Univ Kuopio)
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This page contains the open material for the course Introduction to risk modelling and decision analysis, a course held in the University of Kuopio, 18.-22.9.2006.
Schedule of the course
Mon 18 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1
- 9:15-10:00 Introduction to course and distribution of homework Jouni
- 10:15-11:00 Perspective on risk (definition of risk measures, system boundaries) pp. 1-24, oma riskimääritelmä Jouni
- 11:15-12:00 History of risk research (Red book approach, Nuclear safety) Olli
Tue 19 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1
- 9:15-10:00 Risk management pp. 147-189 Jouni
- 10:15-11:00 Exposure assessment pp. 68-80 Olli
- 11:15-12:00 Dose-response assessment, Risk assessment tools (NOAEL, benchmark, CSF, RfD) pp. 46-68, animal-human extrapolation Olli
Wed 20 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MR10
- 9:15-10:00 Probability theory [frequentist and subjective (Bayesian) approach] Marja-Leenalla sopivia kirjoja? Uncertainty 220-230. Jouni
- 10:15-11:00 Monte Carlo simulation and other tools (uncertainty pp. 81-98) Analytica Olli
- 11:15-12:00 Decision theory (utility, decision tree, utilitarian, egalitarian and other decision rules) Markolla Introduction to decision theory? Jouni
Thu 21 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1
- 9:15-10:00 Graphical representations of risk (DAG, impact pathway, event tree, mind map, pyrkilo, flow chart) Mikan Intarese-paperi, Analytica, pp. 38-46, D1 Beneris Jouni
- 10:15-11:00 Perception of risks (trust, attributes of risk, expert vs. layman perception) pp. 99-134 Olli
- 11:15-12:00 Models in risk assessment (pharmacokinetic Jouni, atmospheric) pp. 68-75, Portierin luennot http://ytoswww/yhteiset/Huippuyksikko/Kirjallisuus/Portier_AdvMetERA_20051011/, Johnin luennot Harvard, Kopran esittely (Marko)
Fri 22 September, 2006 Canthia, Room MC3
- 9:15-12:00 Computer work in a computer classroom. Finishing and presenting homework. Using Wiki and Pyrkilo.
Topics for the homework
- Optimizing rules (disagreement)
- Utilitarian optimizing, general
- Egalitarian optimizing, general
- Elitist optimizing, general
- Precautionary principle (disagreement)
- PP based on expected value, general
- PP based on worst-case or another 'conservative' scenario, general
- PP applied to emissions of municipal solid wasti incinerator (MSWI) in Hämeenkyrö
- Intake fraction (disambiguation)
- iF based on measured concentration fields
- iF based on exposure monitoring
- iF based on shortcuts
- PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö
- PM2.5 emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö
- Baseline PM2.5 exposure in Hämeenkyrö
- PM2.5 exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
- PM2.5 exposure-response function on population level
- Dioxin emissions in Hämeenkyrö
- Baseline dioxin exposure in Hämeenkyrö
- Dioxin exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
- Dioxin exposure-response function on population level
- Decisions related to Hämeenkyrö case
- Municipal solid waste production in Häme
- Existing MSWI plants and current plans in southern Finland
- Possible indicators (optimising variables) in Hämeenkyrö
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Task:
- To create, define, and describe variables related to Hämeenkyrö case (both general and case-specific).