Introduction to risk modelling and decision analysis (course in Univ Kuopio)

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This page contains the open material for the course Introduction to risk modelling and decision analysis, a course held in the University of Kuopio, 18.-22.9.2006.

Schedule of the course

Mon 18 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1

  • 9:15-10:00 Introduction to course and distribution of homework Jouni
  • 10:15-11:00 Perspective on risk (definition of risk measures, system boundaries) pp. 1-24, oma riskimääritelmä Jouni
  • 11:15-12:00 History of risk research (Red book approach, Nuclear safety) Olli

Tue 19 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1

  • 9:15-10:00 Risk management pp. 147-189 Jouni
  • 10:15-11:00 Exposure assessment pp. 68-80 Olli
  • 11:15-12:00 Dose-response assessment, Risk assessment tools (NOAEL, benchmark, CSF, RfD) pp. 46-68, animal-human extrapolation Olli

Wed 20 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MR10

  • 9:15-10:00 Probability theory [frequentist and subjective (Bayesian) approach] Marja-Leenalla sopivia kirjoja? Uncertainty 220-230. Jouni
  • 10:15-11:00 Monte Carlo simulation and other tools (uncertainty pp. 81-98) Analytica Olli
  • 11:15-12:00 Decision theory (utility, decision tree, utilitarian, egalitarian and other decision rules) Markolla Introduction to decision theory? Jouni

Thu 21 September, 2006 Medistudia, Room MHS1

  • 9:15-10:00 Graphical representations of risk (DAG, impact pathway, event tree, mind map, pyrkilo, flow chart) Mikan Intarese-paperi, Analytica, pp. 38-46, D1 Beneris Jouni
  • 10:15-11:00 Perception of risks (trust, attributes of risk, expert vs. layman perception) pp. 99-134 Olli
  • 11:15-12:00 Models in risk assessment (pharmacokinetic Jouni, atmospheric) pp. 68-75, Portierin luennot http://ytoswww/yhteiset/Huippuyksikko/Kirjallisuus/Portier_AdvMetERA_20051011/, Johnin luennot Harvard, Kopran esittely (Marko)

Fri 22 September, 2006 Canthia, Room MC3

  • 9:15-12:00 Computer work in a computer classroom. Finishing and presenting homework. Using Wiki and Pyrkilo.

Topics for the homework

  1. Optimizing rules (disagreement)
    1. Utilitarian optimizing, general
    2. Egalitarian optimizing, general
    3. Elitist optimizing, general
  2. Precautionary principle (disagreement)
    1. PP based on expected value, general
    2. PP based on worst-case or another 'conservative' scenario, general
    3. PP applied to emissions of municipal solid wasti incinerator (MSWI) in Hämeenkyrö
  3. Intake fraction (disambiguation)
    1. iF based on measured concentration fields
    2. iF based on exposure monitoring
    3. iF based on shortcuts
  4. PM2.5 emissions in Hämeenkyrö
  5. PM2.5 emissions from MSWI, biofuel plant, and natural gas plant in Hämeenkyrö
  6. Baseline PM2.5 exposure in Hämeenkyrö
  7. PM2.5 exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
  8. PM2.5 exposure-response function on population level
  9. Dioxin emissions in Hämeenkyrö
  10. Baseline dioxin exposure in Hämeenkyrö
  11. Dioxin exposure due to MSWI in Hämeenkyrö
  12. Dioxin exposure-response function on population level
  13. Decisions related to Hämeenkyrö case
  14. Municipal solid waste production in Häme
  15. Existing MSWI plants and current plans in southern Finland
  16. Possible indicators (optimising variables) in Hämeenkyrö


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Task:

  • To create, define, and describe variables related to Hämeenkyrö case (both general and case-specific).
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