Pollutant health risk due to the consumption of salmon

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Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon: To the assessment page | To the Analytica model
Decision variables:

Variable:Recommendation for consumption of farmed salmon | Variable:Pollutant concentration limits for fish feed

Indicators:

Variable:Pollutant health risk due to the consumption of salmon | Variable:Net health effects due to the consumption of salmon

Other variables:

Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in fish feed | Variable:Persistent pollutant concentrations in salmon | Variable:Salmon intake in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Exposure to persistent pollutants due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of persistent pollutants | Variable:Omega-3 content in salmon | Variable:Omega-3 intake due to salmon in the population of the Western Europe | Variable:Dose-response function of cardiovascular effects of omega-3 fatty acids | Variable:Total mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe | Variable:Cardiovascular effects of omega-3 in salmon in the Western Europe

Scope

Pollutant health risk due to the consumption of salmon describes Pollutant health risk is calculated assuming additivity between the pollutants. However, dioxin risks are not considered because they were not considered in Hites' paper[1]. After unit conversion, numbers are calculated for Western Europe as cases per year. Note that negative numbers mean increased risk unlike in previous versions of the model.

Definition

Data

No direct data is available, so the result is calculated based on the knowledge of causality.

Causality

Upstream variables

Unit

avoided cases/a

Formula

<anacode>var a:= -Risk_slope*pollutant_exposure/1000*western_europe; var b:= (if pollutant1='Dioxin' then 0 else a); var c:= sum(b,pollutant1); c</anacode>

Result

Statistics or fractile Business as usual Recommend restrictions Stricter rules for feed Both
Mean -206 -151 -139 -102
SD 71 55 70 53
0.01 -408 -326 -340 -268
0.025 -371 -292 -302 -233
0.05 -339 -259 -270 -202
0.25 -249 -179 -180 -129
0.5 (Median) -196 -138 -130 -94
0.75 -153 -111 -87 -65
0.95 -107 -83 -40 -29
0.975 -96 -76 -28 -21
0.99 -84 -69 -17 -13

References

  1. ↑ R. A. Hites et al. Global assessment of organic contaminants in farmed salmon. Science, 9 Jan. 2004, p. 226
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