Difference between revisions of "Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon"
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+ | Table: Net health impacts of eating farmed salmon. The results include the health impacts of the total health impact of omega-3 intake from salmon. | ||
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+ | Table: Net health impacts of eating farmed salmon compared with the business-as-usual scenario. | ||
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+ | {| {{prettytable}} | ||
+ | |Statistics or fractile | ||
+ | |Business as usual | ||
+ | |Recommend restrictions | ||
+ | |Stricter rules for feed | ||
+ | |Both | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |Mean | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -8133 | ||
+ | |366 | ||
+ | | -7766 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |SD | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | |9703 | ||
+ | |982 | ||
+ | |9637 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.01 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -45895 | ||
+ | | -2335 | ||
+ | | -45557 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.025 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -35624 | ||
+ | | -1662 | ||
+ | | -35171 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.05 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -27745 | ||
+ | | -1155 | ||
+ | | -27041 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.25 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -10929 | ||
+ | | -60 | ||
+ | | -10553 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.5 (Median) | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -4876 | ||
+ | |264 | ||
+ | | -4560 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.75 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -1567 | ||
+ | |820 | ||
+ | | -1307 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.95 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -112 | ||
+ | |2117 | ||
+ | |147 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.975 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | | -10 | ||
+ | |2635 | ||
+ | |459 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |0.99 | ||
+ | |0 | ||
+ | |14 | ||
+ | |3180 | ||
+ | |995 | ||
+ | |---- | ||
+ | |} | ||
[[Image:VOI analysis for farmed salmon.PNG]] | [[Image:VOI analysis for farmed salmon.PNG]] |
Revision as of 14:08, 27 December 2007
Contents
Scope
Purpose
The purpose of the assessment is to evaluate the recommendation given by Hites et al [1] that people should not eat farmed salmon too often because of the pollutant concentrations.
Boundaries
- Pollutants: Toxaphene, dieldrin, PCB
- Nutrients: Omega-3 fatty acids
- Health impacts:
- Total cancer caused by pollutants
- Cardiovascular deaths and the impact of omega-3 fatty acids
- Population: the population of Western Europe (European Economic Area as of beginning of 2004)
- Current situation (year 2004)
Scenarios
- Recommendation for not to eat farmed salmon too often (yes/no)
- Setting up new stricter regulations about pollutants in fish feed (yes/no)
Intended users
- The primary users are public health authorities and decision-makers involved in giving food recommendations.
- The secondary user group is the general public. Quantitative estimates are offered to increase understanding of the magnitudes of the related issues.
Participants
The assessment is restricted to a group of environmental health researchers. See participant list in Farmed salmon (project).
Definition
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Analyses
- Value of information analyses
- Outcome: Net health effect; Decision: Recommend restricted farmed salmon consumption?; Variables tested: all
- Outcome: Net health effect; Decision: Lower limits for pollutants in fish feed?; Variables tested: all
- Importance analyses
- Outcome: Mortality by recommendation; Variables tested: all
- Outcome: Mortality by feed regulation; Variables tested: all
Result
Results
The main results and conclusions have been published by Tuomisto et al.[2]
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Table: Net health impacts of eating farmed salmon. The results include the health impacts of the total health impact of omega-3 intake from salmon.
Statistics or fractile | Business as usual | Recommend restrictions | Stricker rules for feed | Both |
Mean | 31062 | 22929 | 31428 | 23296 |
SD | 22650 | 17105 | 22842 | 17317 |
0.01 | 576 | 404 | 653 | 460 |
0.025 | 1782 | 1286 | 1847 | 1356 |
0.05 | 3632 | 2697 | 3766 | 2803 |
0.25 | 14547 | 10590 | 14780 | 10793 |
0.5 (Median) | 25187 | 18504 | 25479 | 18829 |
0.75 | 43064 | 31526 | 43628 | 32091 |
0.95 | 76141 | 56697 | 77010 | 57393 |
0.975 | 88267 | 66397 | 89040 | 67249 |
0.99 | 101832 | 79328 | 102202 | 80143 |
Table: Net health impacts of eating farmed salmon compared with the business-as-usual scenario.
Statistics or fractile | Business as usual | Recommend restrictions | Stricter rules for feed | Both |
Mean | 0 | -8133 | 366 | -7766 |
SD | 0 | 9703 | 982 | 9637 |
0.01 | 0 | -45895 | -2335 | -45557 |
0.025 | 0 | -35624 | -1662 | -35171 |
0.05 | 0 | -27745 | -1155 | -27041 |
0.25 | 0 | -10929 | -60 | -10553 |
0.5 (Median) | 0 | -4876 | 264 | -4560 |
0.75 | 0 | -1567 | 820 | -1307 |
0.95 | 0 | -112 | 2117 | 147 |
0.975 | 0 | -10 | 2635 | 459 |
0.99 | 0 | 14 | 3180 | 995 |
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Conclusions
- Pollutant risk is much smaller than the net health benefit of farmed salmon
- Scientific uncertainties related to recommendations are unimportant
- Some scientific and political uncertainties related to feed limits are important
References
- ↑ Hites et al. Science 2004.
- ↑ Tuomisto JT, Tuomisto J, Tainio M, Niittynen M, Verkasalo P, Vartiainen T, Kiviranta H, Pekkanen J. Risk-benefit analysis of eating farmed salmon. Science. 2004 Jul 23;305(5683):476-7 Read the article