Difference between revisions of "Climate change"

Revision as of 05:02, 8 August 2006

This page contains an assessment of the health effects of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.

The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome!

Before moving any further in making any more detailed specifications etc., it is better to consider a little bit what is this climate we are talking about.

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:

"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)."
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)

"Nevertheless, it is reasonable to try to answer the question “Why does climate vary?” To do so, the nature of climate must be considered:

(1) Climate is best described as the prevailing, and hence expected, sequence of states of the atmosphere (loosely, weather) at a given locality. This definition can be extended to cover regions, hemispheres, or even the entire globe. Climatic change is the shift of this sequence to some new apparently lasting state.
(2) The perceived scope of climate has recently been broadened to include a wider range of measurable parameters (e.g., humidity, particle load, ionization, cloud regime, salinity) and to extend over the entire depth and height of the lower atmosphere as well as the surface layers of the ocean.
(3) Climate may be viewed as part of a larger climatic system, an idea closely related to that of ecosystem. Thus, climate pervades not only the atmosphere and ocean but also the soil, ice masses, lakes and rivers, and the living cover of the Earth—all of which interact with the Sun-driven climate of the atmosphere.
(4) The atmosphere and ocean behave in part as chaotic systems. Although they obey well-known laws, they respond to the laws in a bewilderingly complex way. In spite, for example, of reliably periodic forcing by the Sun and tides, the sea and air appear never to repeat themselves precisely, showing instead a preference for nonperiodic behaviour. Tiny events—in principle even the batting of a butterfly's wings—can amplify into consequences that simply cannot be predicted from the known governing laws."
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-53335 2.8.2006)

Focus

To study the predicted health risks, both direct and indirect, that are induced by the climate.

Scope

Scoping in the data:

A. In the data used in this assessment, climate is variably referred to by different writers as:

• local microclimate(s)
• regional mesoclimate(s)
• global macroclimate

B. The writers variably consider the topic in timescales of approximately:

• order of 10¹ years - 10³ years
• order of 10³ years - 10⁶ years
• order of 10⁶ years - 10⁸ years

Scoping in this assessment:

• The spatial scope is chosen to be global when considering the whole climatic system and its causes, but it can be narrowed down as e.g. regional or local when considering its manifestations as climate or weather and their effects
• The temporal scope is primarily <10³ years, but it must be noticed that some variables affecting the climatic system may vary in timescales much longer than that, although the effects may take place within the limits of the scope
• Health effects of climate change on a longer timescale than 10³ years include so much uncertainty that they are not considered here.
• Population: whole human poulation, narrowed down regionally/locally as necessary
• Health effects: direct climate induced health effects, e.g. accidents & psychological effects as well as indirect biota mediated climate induced health effects, e.g. infections, nutritional problems etc.
• Methods: Existing literature (articles in HS) studied with Pyrkilö method

Main indicators

• Global average temperature?
• CO₂ content in atmosphere?
• CO₂ emissions of human activities?
• average temperature of surface waters in big oceans?
• amount of strong storms/year?
• sizes of polar glaciers?
• sun activity?
• start/end times of annual snow/ice covered/free periods in arctic areas?

Causal chain

• Driving force: astronomical factors, volcanic activity, activity of the sun and human activity (population growth ⇒ consumption / industrial activity / transportation increase ⇒ greenhouse gases increase)
• Pressures: changes in radiation balance on earth ⇒ climate change
• States: flooding, drying, more storms, global warming, extreme weathers increasing, changes in living environment for different species (ice/snow covers, water temperatures, humidity changes, ...)
• Exposure: Everyone on earth is exposed to climate change, regional and local differences in weather (particular, local manifestation of climate) and the outcomes of it can be very big
• Effects: victims of flooding & storms, increase in animal transmitted diseases, potential effects stemming from problems in global/regional/local food care and clean water delivery, psychological effects of changes in natural lighting conditions
• Actions: political and economical control systems & technological development to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to atmosphere coming from industrial activity, transportation and consumption, adaptation of health care systems to the changing demands, communal construction changes to meet the upcoming requirements/conditions, adaptation/preparation of agriculture/forestry...

Value judgements

?

Main variables

Outlines of the vieraskynä -articles (quick drafts)

Prof. Matti Saarnisto (GTK, Geology) [1Ma-100Ma / 10a-1Ma]

Climate change
⇐ differences in global heat transfer

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting rate of glaciers

⇐ increase of sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ changes in earth's orbit

⇐ earth's inclination

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ shifting of airflows

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

⇐ decrease of sun radiation balance on earth

⇐ reduction of CO₂ in atmosphere through disintegration

⇐ creation of mountain chains

⇐ movement of tectonic plates

VP Mikko Alestalo, (FMI, Meteorology) [1ka-10ka / 10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ sun radiation variation

⇐ ashes from volcanic eruptions

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities (population growth, use of fossil fuels, world politics)

⇐ changes in ocean streams

⇐ melting of glaciers

⇒ rising of sea levels

Doc. Esko Kuusisto (SYKE, Hydrology) [10-100a]

Climate change
⇐ water circulation

⇐ use of land

⇐ CO₂ emissions to atmosphere

⇐ burning of fossil fuels

⇐ creation of pleasant microclimates for humans

Doc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck (ÅA, Environmental Engineering) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇍ CO2 increase in atmosphere
← today's arctic temperatures compared to 1930's (reliable) arctic temperatures are approximately the same: {{{2}}} {{{3}}}
← climate models produce unreliable results of greenhouse effect: {{{2}}} {{{3}}}

← together the following: {{{2}}} {{{3}}}

• effects of water vapour are not understood theoretically
• climate models overestimate the strengthening effects of water vapour
• climate models overestimate the total amount of fossil fuels

Prof. Markku Wilenius (TuKKK, Futures research) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ changes in ocean behaviour (ocean streams)

⇐ warming of oceans

⇐ positive balance of sun radiation's heat effect on earth

⇐ increase of greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

⇐ economical control systems

Res. Jari Lyytimäki (SYKE) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ reduction in snow and ice covers

⇒ changes in living conditions of animals adapted to winters

⇒ changes in natural lighting conditions

⇒ changes in living conditions of organisms living in lakes

⇒ increased need of artificial lighting

⇒ increased energy use

⇒ psychological effects

⇒ increased travelling "to sun"

⇒ increased energy use

Man. Teija Lahti-Nuuttila (TEKES, Energy & Environment Technology) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gas emissions

⇐ industrial activity, transportation, consumption

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

⇐ use of new techologies

⇐ political & economical control systems

⇐ technological development

Man. Veikko Marttila (Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry, Environmental Management) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇒ increased(?) crop yields
⇒ increase of storms

⇒ increase of forest downfalls

⇒ increase of pest insects & mycoses

⇒ further increase of forest downfalls

⇒ difficulties in wood harvest

⇒ difficulties in wood use

⇒ warming of waters

⇒ changes in fish populations

⇒ alterations in fish farming conditions

⇒ new needs in communal construction
⇒ increase in animal & algae transmitted diseases

⇒ changed demands for public health care

Consulting official Outi Berghäll (Environmental administration, global climate) [10a-100a]

Climate change
⇐ emissions

⇐ all human activities

⇐ price mechanisms

⇐ technological development

Aleksi Neuvonen (Demos Helsinki & Dodo ry, climate change & democracy)

Climate change
⇐ greenhouse gases

⇐ human activities

• power production
• traffic
• other

⇐ international politics

⇐ big companies' policies

⇒ climate change effects

• worsening of farming conditions
• drying
• storms
• floods

⇒ well-being