Difference between revisions of "Climate change"

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m (→‎Causal chain diagram)
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=== Solar activity ===
 
=== Solar activity ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Solar activity
−
Name = Solar activity |
+
 
−
Focus = The radiation output of sun |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The radiation output of sun. Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 10<sup>1</sup> years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment.
−
Scope = Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 10<sup>1</sup> years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment. |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = |
+
 
−
Index = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Definition = |
 
−
Unit = |
 
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 |
+
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Earth's positioning in relation to sun ===
 
=== Earth's positioning in relation to sun ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Earth's positioning in relation to sun
−
Name = Earth's positioning in relation to sun |
+
 
−
Focus = The distance from sun and alignment of Earth |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The distance from sun and alignment of Earth. Temporally in the order of 10<sup>4</sup>-10<sup>5</sup> years
−
Scope = Temporally in the order of 10<sup>4</sup>-10<sup>5</sup> years |
+
 
−
Description = Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. |
+
'''Description''': Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. The factors include:
−
Inputs = |
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
 
 
*Orbital shape
 
*Orbital shape
 
*Axial tilt
 
*Axial tilt
 
*Axial orientation
 
*Axial orientation
−
*Orbital inclination |
+
*Orbital inclination
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors and other sources of information:
 
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles About Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change] |
+
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles About Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change]
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Solar energy input ===
 
=== Solar energy input ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Solar energy input
−
Name = Energy input |
+
 
−
Focus = The amount of energy as solar radiation that enters the Earth's climatic system |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The amount of energy as solar radiation that enters the Earth's climatic system. Global spatiotemporal distribution.
−
Scope = Global spatiotemporal distribution |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 
*[[#Solar activity]]
 
*[[#Solar activity]]
−
*[[#Earth's positioning in relation to sun]] |
+
*[[#Earth's positioning in relation to sun]]
−
Index = |
+
 
−
Definition = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Unit = |
+
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
Result = |
+
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
−
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
 
−
}}
 
  
 
=== Volcanic activity ===
 
=== Volcanic activity ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Volcanic activity
−
Name = Volcanic activity |
+
 
−
Focus = The heat producing processes that take place inside the Earth's core |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The heat producing processes that take place inside the Earth's core
−
Scope = |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''': Manifestations of volcanic activity are:
−
Inputs = |
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
 
 
*Volcano eruptions
 
*Volcano eruptions
−
*Movement of tectonic plates |
+
*Tectonic movement
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006 |
+
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Earth surface ===
 
=== Earth surface ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Earth surface
−
Name = Earth surface |
+
 
−
Focus = Composition of the surface layer of the Earth |
+
'''Focus and scope''': Composition of the surface layer of the Earth. Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of biota on the land areas and in the water areas.
−
Scope = Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of biota on the land areas and in the water areas. |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''': Includes:
−
Inputs = Input variables:
 
−
*[[#Volcanic activity]]
 
−
*[[#Human activity]] |
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
 
 
*Land
 
*Land
 
*Sea
 
*Sea
−
*Biota |
+
*Biota
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Inputs''':
−
Result = |
+
*[[#Volcanic activity]]
−
References = Contributors:
+
*[[#Human activity]]
 +
 
 +
'''Contributors''':
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 |
+
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Weathering ===
 
=== Weathering ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Weathering
−
Name = Weathering |
+
 
−
Focus = The slow erosion of rocks |
+
'''Focus and scope''':
−
Scope = |
+
 
−
Description = The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere. |
+
'''Description''': The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere.
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
 
−
*[[#Earth surface]] |
+
'''Inputs''':
−
Index = |
+
*[[#Earth surface]]
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Result = |
+
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
References = Contributors and further information:  
+
 
−
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
+
 
−
}}
+
=== World politics ===
 +
 
 +
'''Name''': World politics
 +
 
 +
'''Focus and scope''':
 +
 
 +
'''Description''':
 +
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 +
 
 +
'''Contributors''':
 +
 
 +
 
 +
=== Human population ===
 +
 
 +
'''Name''': Human population
 +
 
 +
'''Focus and scope''':
 +
 
 +
'''Description''':
 +
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 +
 
 +
'''Contributors''':
 +
 
  
 
=== Human activity ===
 
=== Human activity ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Human activity
−
Name = Human activity |
+
 
−
Focus = The human activities that have impact on the climate system |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The human activities that have impact on the climate system. Spatially from local to global.
−
Scope = Spatially from local to global |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = Input variables:
 
−
[[*#Human population]]<br>
 
−
[[*#World politics]]|
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
 
 
*Land use
 
*Land use
−
*Emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere |
+
*Emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere  
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Inputs''':
−
Result = |
+
*[[#Human population]]
−
References = Contributors:
+
*[[#World politics]]
−
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
+
 
−
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Heslingin Sanomat 3.7.2006 |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
}}
+
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
 +
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
 +
 
  
 
=== Composition of the atmosphere ===
 
=== Composition of the atmosphere ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Composition of the atmosphere
−
Name = Composition of the atmosphere |
+
 
−
Focus = The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect|
+
'''Focus and scope''': The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect.
−
Scope = |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
*CO<sub>2</sub> concentration
 +
*H<sub>2</sub>O concentration (+cloud formation)
 +
*Other greenhouse gases
 +
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 
*[[#Human activity]]  
 
*[[#Human activity]]  
 
*[[#Weathering]]
 
*[[#Weathering]]
−
*[[#Earth surface]]|
+
*[[#Earth surface]]
−
Index = Dimensions:
+
 
−
*CO<sub>2</sub> concentration
+
'''Contributors''':
−
*H<sub>2</sub>O concentration (+cloud formation)
+
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
−
*Other greenhouse gases |
 
−
Definition = |
 
−
Unit = |
 
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
−
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
 
 
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
 
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
−
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 |
+
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Reflected solar radiation ===
 
=== Reflected solar radiation ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Reflected solar radiation
−
Name = Reflected solar radiation |
+
 
−
Focus = The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface.
−
Scope =  |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 
*[[#Earth surface]]
 
*[[#Earth surface]]
−
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]] |
+
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]]
−
Index = |
+
 
−
Definition = |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
Unit = |
 
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
 
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
 
*Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
−
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 |
+
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006  
−
}}
+
 
  
 
=== Absorbed energy ===
 
=== Absorbed energy ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Absorbed energy
−
Name = Absorbed energy |
+
 
−
Focus = The total energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The total energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms.
−
Scope = |
+
 
−
Description = |
+
'''Description''':
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
 
 +
'''Inputs''':
 
*[[#Reflected solar radiation]]
 
*[[#Reflected solar radiation]]
−
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]] |
+
*[[#Composition of the atmosphere]]
−
Index =  |
 
−
Definition = |
 
−
Unit = |
 
−
Result = |
 
−
References = Contributors:
 
−
*Markku Wilenius, Ilmasto muuttuu 5, Helsingin Sanomat 7.7.2006|
 
−
}}
 
  
−
=== Heat transfer ===
+
'''Contributors''':
 +
*Markku Wilenius, Ilmasto muuttuu 5, Helsingin Sanomat 7.7.2006
  
−
{{Var|
+
 
−
Name = Heat transfer |
+
=== Air flows ===
−
Focus = Transfer of heat |
+
 
−
Scope = Horizontally happening heat transfer that evens the temperature differences on the globe. |
+
'''Name''': Air flows
−
Description = |
+
 
−
Inputs = Input variables:
+
'''Focus and scope''': Flows of air and water that transfer heat.
−
*[[#Earth surface]] |
+
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
+
'''Description''':
 
*Air flows
 
*Air flows
−
*Sea currents |
+
*Sea currents
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Inputs''':
−
Result = |
+
*[[#Earth surface]]
−
References = Contributors:
+
 
−
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006 |
+
'''Contributors''':
−
}}
+
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 +
 
  
 
=== Climate ===
 
=== Climate ===
  
−
{{Var|
+
'''Name''': Climate
−
Name = Climate |
+
 
−
Focus = The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate |
+
'''Focus and scope''': The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate. Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 10<sup>5</sup> years, spatial variation from very local to global.
−
Scope = Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 10<sup>5</sup> years, spatial variation from very local to global. |
+
 
−
Description = Distributions of different factors and especially the extreme phenomena are of greatest interest. |
+
'''Description''': Distributions of different factors and especially the extreme phenomena are of greatest interest. Factors include:
−
Inputs = Input variables:
 
−
*[[#Absorbed energy]]
 
−
*[[#Heat transfer]] |
 
−
Index = Dimensions:
 
 
*Temperature
 
*Temperature
 
*Humidity
 
*Humidity
 
*Wind (speed and direction)
 
*Wind (speed and direction)
−
*Precipitation (amount and type) |
+
*Precipitation (amount and type)
−
Definition = |
+
 
−
Unit = |
+
'''Iputs''':
−
Result = |
+
*[[#Absorbed energy]]
−
References = Contributors:
+
*[[#Heat transfer]]
 +
 
 +
'''Contributors''':
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
 
*Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
−
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat x.x.2006
+
*Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
 
*Esko kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
 
*Esko kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
−
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006 |
+
*Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
−
}}
 

Revision as of 08:29, 17 November 2006

This page contains a description of causes and effects of what is commonly referred to as climate using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of 10 climate change related articles by 10 invited experts published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006. 

The description currently only includes the variables that are upstream from climate variable.
The downstream-side of the description will be added later.

Focus of the description

  1. Base-level focus: to describe the causes and effects of climate as a compilation of the contributions of the 10 writers
  2. Meta-level focus: to try the applicability of pyrkilo method for describing such a complex issue as a net of variables

Scope of the description

All input from all of the 10 writers are accepted as contributions. In addition, the moderator of the exercise has the right to include additonal material where needed to make implicit issues explicit, to fill in important gaps if they shall exist and to make the overall description coherent.

  • The spatial scope is primarily global, but some phenomena are also considered on regional and local scopes as well
  • The temporal scope of different variables by different contributors varies approximately within the orders of 101 to 105 years
  • All causes and effects of climate change mentioned in the articles are considered

Moderator

Mikko Pohjola --Mikko

Causal chain diagram

(The graph currently only covers the variables upstream from climate variable)

Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination

Variable descriptions

Solar activity

Name: Solar activity

Focus and scope: The radiation output of sun. Variations in the output happen in the scope of approximately 101 years. As a source of energy, sun can be considered as continuous within the scope of the whole assessment.

Description:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
  • Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006


Earth's positioning in relation to sun

Name: Earth's positioning in relation to sun

Focus and scope: The distance from sun and alignment of Earth. Temporally in the order of 104-105 years

Description: Based on Milankovich's astronomical theory of climate change, complemented with orbital inclination. The factors include:

  • Orbital shape
  • Axial tilt
  • Axial orientation
  • Orbital inclination

Contributors:


Solar energy input

Name: Solar energy input

Focus and scope: The amount of energy as solar radiation that enters the Earth's climatic system. Global spatiotemporal distribution.

Description:

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006


Volcanic activity

Name: Volcanic activity

Focus and scope: The heat producing processes that take place inside the Earth's core

Description: Manifestations of volcanic activity are:

  • Volcano eruptions
  • Tectonic movement

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
  • Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006


Earth surface

Name: Earth surface

Focus and scope: Composition of the surface layer of the Earth. Distribution of land and water areas, vertical variation of the land areas, distribution of biota on the land areas and in the water areas.

Description: Includes:

  • Land
  • Sea
  • Biota

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
  • Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006


Weathering

Name: Weathering

Focus and scope:

Description: The weathering slowly decreases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006


World politics

Name: World politics

Focus and scope:

Description:

Inputs:

Contributors:


Human population

Name: Human population

Focus and scope:

Description:

Inputs:

Contributors:


Human activity

Name: Human activity

Focus and scope: The human activities that have impact on the climate system. Spatially from local to global.

Description:

  • Land use
  • Emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
  • Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006


Composition of the atmosphere

Name: Composition of the atmosphere

Focus and scope: The gases and airborne particulate matter that affect the greenhouse effect.

Description:

  • CO2 concentration
  • H2O concentration (+cloud formation)
  • Other greenhouse gases

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
  • Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
  • Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006


Reflected solar radiation

Name: Reflected solar radiation

Focus and scope: The sunlight that is reflected back to the space from the atmosphere and Earth surface.

Description:

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Esko Kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
  • Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006


Absorbed energy

Name: Absorbed energy

Focus and scope: The total energy that is absorbed to the climatic system of the Earth in various forms.

Description:

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Markku Wilenius, Ilmasto muuttuu 5, Helsingin Sanomat 7.7.2006


Air flows

Name: Air flows

Focus and scope: Flows of air and water that transfer heat.

Description:

  • Air flows
  • Sea currents

Inputs:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006


Climate

Name: Climate

Focus and scope: The phenomena that are together commonly perceived as climate. Temporal variation from minutes (weather) to > 105 years, spatial variation from very local to global.

Description: Distributions of different factors and especially the extreme phenomena are of greatest interest. Factors include:

  • Temperature
  • Humidity
  • Wind (speed and direction)
  • Precipitation (amount and type)

Iputs:

Contributors:

  • Matti Saarnisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 1, Helsingin Sanomat 28.6.2006
  • Mikko Alestalo, Ilmasto muuttuu 2, Helsingin Sanomat 30.6.2006
  • Esko kuusisto, Ilmasto muuttuu 3, Helsingin Sanomat 3.7.2006
  • Jarl R. Ahlbeck, Ilmasto muttuu 4, Helsingin Sanomat 5.7.2006
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