Climate change

This page contains an assessment of the health effects of climate change using the Pyrkilo method. The data used in this assessment is composed of climate change related articles published in Helsingin Sanomat during Summer 2006, a series of invited "vieraskynä" -articles as its core.

The assessment is in draft phase and comments and contribution of everyone interested is very welcome!

Before moving any further in making any more detailed specifications etc., it is better to consider a little bit what is this climate we are talking about.

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, climate is:

"Conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction)."
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9106248, 13.7.2006)

"Nevertheless, it is reasonable to try to answer the question “Why does climate vary?” To do so, the nature of climate must be considered:

(1) Climate is best described as the prevailing, and hence expected, sequence of states of the atmosphere (loosely, weather) at a given locality. This definition can be extended to cover regions, hemispheres, or even the entire globe. Climatic change is the shift of this sequence to some new apparently lasting state.
(2) The perceived scope of climate has recently been broadened to include a wider range of measurable parameters (e.g., humidity, particle load, ionization, cloud regime, salinity) and to extend over the entire depth and height of the lower atmosphere as well as the surface layers of the ocean.
(3) Climate may be viewed as part of a larger climatic system, an idea closely related to that of ecosystem. Thus, climate pervades not only the atmosphere and ocean but also the soil, ice masses, lakes and rivers, and the living cover of the Earth—all of which interact with the Sun-driven climate of the atmosphere.
(4) The atmosphere and ocean behave in part as chaotic systems. Although they obey well-known laws, they respond to the laws in a bewilderingly complex way. In spite, for example, of reliably periodic forcing by the Sun and tides, the sea and air appear never to repeat themselves precisely, showing instead a preference for nonperiodic behaviour. Tiny events—in principle even the batting of a butterfly's wings—can amplify into consequences that simply cannot be predicted from the known governing laws."
(Encyclopaedia Britannica Online, http://search.eb.com/eb/article-53335 2.8.2006)

Focus

1. Base-level focus: to describe climate change (as a compilation of all the accepted writers contributions)
2. Meta-level focus: to use the PYRKILO method and monitor, evaluate and report both the process and its results

Scope

All the input of all 10 writers accepted as the contributors of this study, added with the right of the moderator to include additonal material in order to make implicit issues explicit whenever necessary and to make the overall picture complete.

In relation to describing the phenomena of climate change this means that:

• The spatial scope is chosen to be global, narrowed down to regional and local scopes as necessary
• The temporal scope is primarily <10³ years, but it must be noticed that some variables affecting the climatic system may vary in timescales much longer than that, although the effects may take place within the limits of the scope
• All mentioned effects of climate change are considered
• The assessment covers whole human population, narrowed down regionally/locally as necessary
• Health effects are divided into direct climate induced health effects, e.g. accidents & psychological effects and indirect biota mediated climate induced health effects, e.g. infections, nutritional problems etc.
• All mentioned cause affecting climate are considered

Main indicators

The following variables have been mentioned as important indicators by the contributors:

• global average temperature
• CO₂ content in atmosphere
• average temperature of surface waters in big oceans
• sea surface levels
• sizes of polar and mountain glaciers
• start/end times of annual snow/ice covered/free periods in arctic areas
• emissions/content of other greenhouse gases to/in atmosphere

Causal chain

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Solar activity

Solar activity

Focus:	The radiation output of sun
Scope:
Description:
Inputs:
Index:
Definition:
Unit:	W/m2
Result:
References:	{{{References}}}