Difference between revisions of "Comparative risk assessment of dioxin and fine particles"
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== Result == | == Result == | ||
| + | {|{{prettytable}} | ||
| + | ! Fish species | ||
| + | ! Consumption | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Salmon | ||
| + | | 2.1 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Rainbow trout | ||
| + | | 0.6 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Tuna | ||
| + | | 1.6 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Herring preservatives | ||
| + | | 0.5 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Saithe | ||
| + | | 0.4 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Others | ||
| + | | 2.8 | ||
| + | |----- | ||
| + | | Total | ||
| + | | 8 | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
''Variable #4: '''Dose-response of dioxins:''''' | ''Variable #4: '''Dose-response of dioxins:''''' | ||
Revision as of 11:37, 20 March 2007
Contents
Comparative risk assessment of dioxin and fine particles
The full model is available from http://heande.pyrkilo.fi/heande/images/1/1d/PMvsDX.ANA
Background information about the study
Dioxins and airborne fine particles both are environmental health problems that have been subject to active public debate. Knowledge on fine particles has increased substantially during the last ten years, and even the current, lowered levels in Europe and the United States appear to be a larger public health problem than previously thought. On the other hand, dioxins are ubiquitous persistent contaminants and animal carcinogens at high doses, and therefore of a great concern. Our aim was to quantitatively analyze these two health risks and compare whether there are differences in given risks scenarios. Scenarios were chosen to match current and forthcoming EU regulations and standards for these two pollutants. We performed a comparative risk assessment for both pollutants in the Helsinki metropolitan area (Finland), and estimated the health effects for several scenarios: For primary fine particles: a comparison between the present emission situation of heavy-duty vehicles (CURRENT PRACTISE) to particle emission standards set by the EU, For dioxins: an EU-directive that regulates for commercial fishing of Baltic salmon and herring that exceed the dioxin concentration limit, and a derogation from the directive for these two species. Both of these two decisions are very topical issues. We found the risk of fine particles emitted by heavy-duty vehicles clearly outweighing the risk of dioxin in Finnish fish. Substantial improvement to public health could be achieved by advancing in emission standards from present situation to stricter emission standards, about 30 avoided premature deaths annually in Helsinki. In addition, we found that benefits of fish consumption due to omega-3 exposure were hundreds of times larger than the potential dioxin cancer risk.
DIOXIN RISK MODEL
Here are some key variables of the model introduced to raise some discussion and to improve the model. Please, use the discussion tab located next to tab 'article' to add a comment or an argument. The relevant outcomes of the discussions will be transferred to this page and the variables will be changed accordingly when needed.
Variable #1: Dioxin concentrations of domestic fish:
Description
Concentrations of dioxins in domestic fish. Samples include skin and ventral fat. Therefore we can consider these concentrations as worst case scenarios.
References
- Hallikainen A. et al 2004
- KTL. Kirjolohien_pitoisuuksia_6_10_2004.xls
- RKTL. Kalatalous tilastoina 2002
Definition
| Fish species | Dioxin WHO-TEQ in fresh weight |
|---|---|
| Farmed salmon (sea+freswater) | Fractiles(0.4954 0.4965 0.6628 0.6871 0.6911 0.9743 1.124 1.399) |
| Wild salmon (sea) | Fractiles(2.32 3.21 8.77 9.11 9.27 9.7 10.8 14.6 15.7 17.4) |
| Herring +17 cm (sea) | Fractiles(8.23 15.9 16.6) |
| Herring -17 cm (sea) | Fractiles(2 2.52) |
| White fish (sea) | Fractiles(1.2 1.2 1.39 1.62 3.21 3.84 7.07) |
| Sprat (sea) | Fractiles(0.882 2.04 2.72 2.98) |
| Perch (sea) | Fractiles(0.529 1.18 1.28 1.51 1.85 2.74 4.23 5.23) |
| Flounder (sea) | Fractiles(1.4 2.29) |
| Pike-perch (sea) | Fractiles(0.721 0.777 1.66 2.04) |
| Bream (sea) | Fractiles(0.386 0.99 1.05 1.68 3.37 4.58) |
| Pike (sea) | Fractiles(0.447 0.617 0.71 0.945 1.31 1.39) |
| Vendace (sea) | Fractiles(0.364 0.39 0.391 0.417 0.747 0.756 1.29 1.44 2.3) |
| Burbot (sea) | Fractiles(0.132 0.178 0.262) |
| Wild salmon (freshwater) | Fractiles(2.32 3.21 8.77 9.11 9.27 9.7 10.8 14.6 15.7 17.4) |
| White fish (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.164 0.168 0.552 0.615 0.877 2.63) |
| Perch (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.077 0.116 0.219 0.324 0.324 0.441) |
| Pike-perch (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.147 0.273 0.276 0.319 0.744 0.814) |
| Bream (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.386 0.99 1.05 1.68 3.37 4.58) |
| Pike (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.07 0.14 0.202 0.218 0.379 1.6) |
| Vendace (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.364 0.39 0.391 0.417 0.747 0.756 1.29 1.44 2.3) |
| Burbot (freshwater) | Fractiles(0.061 0.167 0.533) |
Causality
List of parents: N/A (original data)
Formula
N/A
Unit
ng/kg in fresh weight
Result
| Fish species | Mean WHO-TEQ in fresh weight |
|---|---|
| Farmed salmon (sea+freswater) | 0.7976 |
| Wild salmon (sea) | 10.11 |
| Herring +17 cm (sea) | 14.16 |
| Herring -17 cm (sea) | 2.26 |
| White fish (sea) | 2.566 |
| Sprat (sea) | 2.23 |
| Perch (sea) | 2.238 |
| Flounder (sea) | 1.845 |
| Pike-perch (sea) | 1.272 |
| Bream (sea) | 1.915 |
| Pike (sea) | 0.9001 |
| Vendace (sea) | 0.8454 |
| Burbot (sea) | 0.1875 |
| Wild salmon (freshwater) | 10.11 |
| White fish (freshwater) | 0.7218 |
| Perch (freshwater) | 0.2484 |
| Pike-perch (freshwater) | 0.4185 |
| Bream (freshwater) | 1.915 |
| Pike (freshwater) | 0.3548 |
| Vendace (freshwater) | 0.8454 |
| Burbot (freshwater) | 0.232 |
Variable #2: Consumption of domestic fish species:
Scope
Includes fish from sea-areas, lakes and rivers of Finland.
Consumption of domestic fish species describes
Description
In these tables are the most common domestic fish species available for consumers.
References
- RKTL. Kalatalous tilastoina 2002.
- Suomen ympäristö 687
Definition
| Fish species | Consumption |
|---|---|
| Farmed salmon (sea+freshwater) | (1.3*Forfood) |
| Wild salmon (sea) | ((((((4.440e+005+1.520e+005)/Populationoffinland)*0.59)+(((6.900e+004+5.900e+004)/Populationoffinland)*0.59))+(((9.200e+004+3.240e+005)/Populationoffinland)*0.52))*Forfood) |
| Herring +17 cm (sea) | ((Triangular(0.9,0.9,1.1)*(1-Sum(Herring_size_distrib[Sizecat=[12-14.9,15-16.9]])))*Forfood) |
| Herring -17 cm (sea) | ((Triangular(0.9,0.9,1.1)*Sum(Herring_size_distrib[Sizecat=[12-14.9,15-16.9]]))*Forfood) |
| White fish (sea) | ((((8.820e+005+9.440e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Sprat (sea) | ((((1.574e+007+0.000e+000)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Perch (sea) | ((((8.030e+005+2.993e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Flounder (sea) | ((((1.300e+005+3.740e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Pike-perch (sea) | ((((4.120e+005+6.150e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Bream (sea) | ((((2.110e+005+7.760e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Pike (sea) | ((((2.290e+005+2.312e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Vendace (sea) | ((((9.800e+004+8.900e+004)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Burbot (sea) | ((((1.040e+005+2.330e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Wild salmon (freshwater) | ((((((9000+5.300e+004)/Populationoffinland)*0.59)+(((0.000e+000+6.600e+005)/Populationoffinland)*0.52))+(((1.200e+004+5.980e+005)/Populationoffinland)*0.52))*Forfood) |
| White fish (freshwater) | ((((3.670e+005+2.054e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Perch (freshwater) | ((((2.590e+005+9.340e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Pike-perch (freshwater) | ((((7.500e+004+6.850e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Bream (freshwater) | ((((2.170e+005+1.443e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Pike (freshwater) | ((((1.270e+005+7.760e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Vendace (freshwater) | ((((2.815e+006+2.022e+006)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Burbot (freshwater) | ((((4.300e+004+7.880e+005)/Populationoffinland)*Filletingfactor)*Forfood) |
| Total | 5.285 |
Causality
List of parents:
- fish for human food
- herring size distribution
- filleting factor
- Population of Finland
Data
Formula
Analytica_id:
<anacode></anacode>
Unit
kg/person/year
Result
| Fish species | Consumption |
|---|---|
| Farmed salmon (sea+freshwater) | 1.3 |
| Wild salmon (sea) | 0.1242 |
| Herring +17 cm (sea) | 0.6419 |
| Herring -17 cm (sea) | 0.3248 |
| White fish (sea) | 0.1814 |
| Sprat (sea) | 0.03669 |
| Perch (sea) | 0.1816 |
| Flounder (sea) | 0.01879 |
| Pike-perch (sea) | 0.09217 |
| Bream (sea) | 0.05563 |
| Pike (sea) | 0.1746 |
| Vendace (sea) | 0.02166 |
| Burbot (sea) | 0.01815 |
| Wild salmon (freshwater) | 0.1345 |
| White fish (freshwater) | 0.2406 |
| Perch (freshwater) | 0.4593 |
| Pike-perch (freshwater) | 0.0382 |
| Bream (freshwater) | 0.09356 |
| Pike (freshwater) | 0.5419 |
| Vendace (freshwater) | 0.5601 |
| Burbot (freshwater) | 0.04475 |
| Total | 5.285 |
Variable #3: Consumption of exported fish:
Scope
Consumption of fish exported to Finland.
Consumption of exported fish describes
Description
Amount of how much imported fish is eaten in Finland.
References
- RKTL. Taskutilasto 2002.
Definition
| Fish species | Consumption |
|---|---|
| Salmon | 2.1 |
| Rainbow trout | 0.6 |
| Tuna | 1.6 |
| Herring preservatives | 0.5 |
| Saithe | 0.4 |
| Others | 2.8 |
| Total | 8 |
Causality
List of parents:
- original data
Data
Formula
Analytica_id:
<anacode></anacode>
Unit
kg/person/year
Result
| Fish species | Consumption |
|---|---|
| Salmon | 2.1 |
| Rainbow trout | 0.6 |
| Tuna | 1.6 |
| Herring preservatives | 0.5 |
| Saithe | 0.4 |
| Others | 2.8 |
| Total | 8 |
Variable #4: Dose-response of dioxins:
Variable #5: Dose-response of Omega-3:
Variable #6: Selected end points:
- for dioxins - cancer
- for omega-3 - avoided coronary heart diseases
