User:Ehab Mustafa

DARM, 2017 Homework

Homework 1

←# : Very good! --Jouni (talk) 08:00, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Homework 1a: Open policy practice

2. What is shared understanding?

A situation where all individual (assessors, managers, stakeholders) are able to correctly explain what the other thinks about a certain topic and why, including information on:

• Objective pursued

• considered decision options

• possible outcomes

• selected decision option

• consequence of policy implementation

This definition can be extended also to a larger group. Here shared understanding is a written description of the topic that covers the thinking and reasoning on the topic of all members.

7. What is open assessment?

Open assessment is a method that attempts to answer the following research question and to apply the answer in practical assessments: how can scientific information (based on information) and value judgments (based on individuals opinions) be organised for improving societal decision-making in a situation where open participation is allowed?

8. What are the dimensions of openness?

Dimensions of Openness

Dimension	Explanation
Scope of participation	Who are allowed to participate?
Access to information	What information is available?
Timing of openness	When are participants invited or allowed to participate?
Scope of contribution	To which aspects of the issue are participants invited or allowed to contribute?
Impact of contribution	How much are participant contributions allowed to have influence on the outcomes? In other words, how much weight is given to participant contributions?

Homework 1b: Learn the terms in Quizlet

Done, It was really interesting to paly the flip-cards thing and taking knowledge assessment test as well.

Homework 1c: Introduction to critical thinking

Done, most of videos were watched. Most of exercises were performed.

Homework 1d: Introduction to probabilities

Done, most of videos were watched. Most of exercises were performed.

Homework 3

←# : Excellent! --Jouni (talk) 08:00, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Task 1

1. I think definition of convergence was not clearly stated, it would be great if we discuss more about it the lecture.
2. I'm not an expert in statistics, it is not my area of specialty. In turn, I found it a bit difficult to understand the following terms;

• Binomial distribution

• Beta-binomial distribution

• Correlated binomial distribution

• Bernoulli distribution

• Gamma distribution

It will be appreciated if more information in this regard is offered.

Task 2

Co-creation is a process in which valued outcomes are produced by bringing different parties (e.g. companies and customers) all together. In context of business system, consumers appreciated when they are able to see their their influence not only in the exchange point of goods but also in designing products, developing production processes, crafting marketing messages, and controlling sales channels. In environmental risk assessment regard, it also involves that modelers help decision makers to get answers through performing quantitative risk assessment. It Emphasize on the Joint effort to collaboratively produce information, typically supported by facilitators and performed utilising online tools.

Advantages of co-creation over traditional decision support process include:

1. it builds trust among participants and outside observers
2. it is an efficient way to ensure that all relevant issues are raised and handled properly
3. it facilitates learning when all information is easily available to everyone

Facilitator is meant to handle the task of creating collaboration, facilitator usually helps any of possible participants to express their opinion.

A good facilitator should have following skills:

Skills of Good Facilitator

Skill	Explanation
Enthusiasm	A good facilitator should be able to motivate participants to express their opinions by helping participants with unfamiliar tools or letting them use their own tools and then translating the information into the workspace.
Textuality	A good facilitator should be capable of producing and converting information into practical textual formats.
Openness	A good facilitator should be accessible by participants with no restrictions.
Modelling	A good facilitator should have sufficient capabilities to use probabilities, statistics and different ways of modelling to
Web-workspaces supporting	A good facilitator should be satisfied by sufficient skills regarding dealing with different and updated tools of software.

Homework 4

←# : Overall: excellent! Some detailed comments below. --Jouni (talk) 08:42, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

Scope

Question

• How city of Rotterdam will be climate-proof city and structurally take into account the long-term foreseeable climate change in different area of spatial development, while allowing for any associated uncertainties?

Intended use and users

The assessment is to serve the city of Rotterdam authorities indicating which measures can be implemented in the various parts of the city in order to combat the effects of climate change and discusses where opportunities lie. A number of instruments are available to support the implementation.

Participants

• Rotterdam City Council

• Set boundaries to the assessment and action plans
• Supervision and evaluation of implemented measures

• Wide range of consultants from different business

• Assessment of placing the essential infrastructure and other frameworks adopted.
• Assessment of suggesting tool for measure the public awareness.

• Any possible stakeholders

• Ensure the assessment openness, acceptability, and effectiveness.

• Interest groups

• Consider environment and population

Boundaries

• Area: geographical area of Rotterdam City
• Time: Change Adaptation Strategy has been developed in October 2013 with the aim of making Rotterdam climate proof by 2025.
• Noted factors:
  • Water levels for outer-dike areas
  • Water levels for dikes and inner-dike areas
  • Extreme rainfall
  • Drought
  • High temperatures

Decisions and scenarios

--# : Here you could try to identify alternatives: now the text sounds like an implementation plan. But if everything has been decided, why would Rotterdam need this assessment? Note that you can here deviate from the actual situation, because this is an exercise: even if this had been decided already, you can assume in this homework that it is not. Then, you can think of issues that possibly would change the decision and e.g. stop one of these activities. What issues could they be, and what information is needed to find out whether it is a good or bad idea to implement these plans? --Jouni (talk) 08:42, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

There different scenarios for green adaptation for climate change that will simultaneously make surroundings of Rotterdam City more attractive and livable:

• Outer-dike flood protection

Climate change will lead to higher sea and river levels, which will increase the likelihood of flooding. The higher elevation of the outer-dike areas limits the extent and depth of the flooding there. The consequences of flooding will mainly be limited to an increased risk of economic losses and environmental damage. In the outer-dike areas the strategy focuses on a combination of prevention and adaptation:

• The robust system of protection, consisting of raising the elevation and closing the storm surge barriers during storm tides.
• Augmentiton with measure such as adaptive building and the redevelopment of outer-dike properties, construction of floating buildings and the adaptive design of outdoor areas including roadways, utility infrastructure, wilderness areas and parks.

• Inner-dike flood protection

Climate change will lead to higher sea and river levels. This will place more pressure on the dikes and the agreed safety standards at a number of places in Rotterdam will be exceeded. The strategy is aimed at preventing flooding using a system of strong dikes and storm surge barriers, with a focus on prevention through:

• If the current agreed standards are exceeded, then the first course is to reinforce the already existing primary dikes.
• For the regional dikes, there is also a system of outlets that can be closed in the event of any disaster.

• Protection against extreme rainfall

The changing climate will lead to more frequent extreme rainfall and heavier downpours. This will increase the risk of disruption and damage caused by flooding, particularly in areas that already have a water storage capacity deficit and densely built-up, paved urban areas. The drainage and storage capacity of the urban water system is being adapted to deal with extreme rainfall through:

• maintaining and where necessary improving the urban water system so that in the future the city will become less vulnerable to flooding, for example by increasing the storage and drainage capacity.
• taking some of the pressure off the water system. Where possible, in all parts of the city, rainwater must be captured and retained where it falls and drainage delayed. Where necessary, rainwater should be used to augment the groundwater and to irrigate the flora of the city.
• Effective measures in public areas include removing paving and planting trees and bushes along the streets and in open areas.

• Protection against drought

Longer periods of drought and groundwater deficits affect the water table and can also lead to lower river levels. Lower groundwater levels in turn affects the peat ground drying out and sinking. This poses a risk to wooden pile foundations. Drying out can also cause peat dikes to subside and threatens the urban flora. Climate change will only increase these risks. In order to make the city less vulnerable to the effects of drought and rainfall shortage, Rotterdam is focusing on retaining rainwater and replenishing the (ground)water where possible: The current robust water system is being maintained and strengthened by, for example, making more room for water in ditches, canals, waterways and lakes, controlling water levels and sluicing with relatively high-quality water.

• An effective robust measure is to create extra surface water in the city where necessary and possible. Examples here include the expansion of existing or the creation of new lakes, canals, waterways and ditches.
• On a city-wide scale, this can be achieved by extending existing green blue networks and constructing new ones, such as in the south of Rotterdam. These networks are also known as ‘climate buffers’ and can be linked to the regional water network.
• Increasing the potential for sluicing is another robust measure

• Protection against waves of high temperature

Climate change will lead to longer, more frequent periods of high temperatures. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect will compound the effects of heat in the city. In the summer, the most important consequences of this warming will be health problems and increased levels of mortality, a reduction in the thermal comfort both indoors and outdoors, higher energy consumption, lower productivity, reduction in air quality, reduction in water quality and biodiversity and malfunctioning infrastructure. The task is to reduce the vulnerability of the city and its inhabitants to heat stress through:

• incorporate more flora in the city, especially in its paved, densely built-up areas. This is being done at all levels in the city, from pavements to city parks. In those places where it is not possible to incorporate greenery, other adaptation measures will be included in the design and maintenance plans.
• At the same time, use is being made of the opportunities provided by a warmer city. More parks and gardens create a more attractive environment, a richer urban biodiversity and extra activities in the field of recreation and tourism.

Timing

• The assessment should be made as soon as possible to reach a decision to agree on the best possible measure that enable to face climate change in Rotterdam City

Answer

Results

• Outer-dike flood protection

• Proposed strategy leads to the minimization of possible damaging effects because of flooding in the outer-dike areas offering protection to private properties as well as public ones.

• Inner-dike flood protection

• Proposed strategy leads not only to protect the city against the water catastrophes; but also to be a part of the spatial structure of the city and frequently interwoven into the urban fabric.
• In some places the dikes are green and recreational, but elsewhere, such as the Boompjes, they are an integral part of the urban infrastructure. In addition to their protective function, the dikes have other functions such as major access roads or recreational cycle routes.

• Protection against extreme rainfall

• The ‘waterproof city’ is robust and resilient (grey and green-blue) with a mix of paving and vegetation. The focus is on adaptive measures whereby the rainwater is captured and drainage is delayed.

• Protection against drought

• Inhabitants, businesses and visitors can all benefit from reinforcing the green-blue network in Rotterdam, both in the immediate vicinity of their homes and neighborhoods (green roofs and façades) and in the city itself (water squares and lakes, green-blue network). Furthermore, the measures provide an attractive context for the transformation of the existing city.

• Protection against waves of high temperature

• Even with the changing climate, the urban climate in Rotterdam will remain pleasant and healthy, both indoors and outdoors where there are enough cool places such as shady parks or water features.

Conclusions

With the proposed improvements listed above it might be possible to minimize climate changes impact on Rotterdam city significantly. The measures will be a drain on resources but doing nothing would be even more costly.

Rationale

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Rotterdam Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Stakeholders

• City of Rotterdam
• Citizens of Rotterdam City
• Enterprises e.g. construction companies and media
• Responsible city agencies e.g. environmental agencies, premises center and building supervision.
• Central government

Dependencies

--# : Here you could list issues that are important information for decision making. So what things must be known before an informed decision about climate actions can be taken. Also: how can this assessment help clarifying those issues? --Jouni (talk) 08:42, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

In addition to the nowadays state of suitability of waterproof protective measures, the current levels of water river and lakes in the city have to be assessed. Regular and precise recoding in the change of temperature and rain gauge should be followed. Through out the implementation process costs (money, time, work force) have to be calculated, while health and environmental imapacts have to be monitored.