Revision as of 16:40, 25 June 2017

DECISION ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Home Work 1

←# : Very good. --Jouni (talk) 08:27, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

1a:

Open assessment is a method that attempts to answer research question regarding how scientific information and value judgements are organised for improving societal decision-making in a situation where open participation is allowed and how these scientific information are applied in practical assessments.This assessment processes are performed using Internet tools such as; Opasnet and other internet tools. Participation in the assessment can be done by Stakeholders and other interested people and this include; commenting, and editting the content as it develops, from an early phase of the process.

Shared understanding means a situation where all participants can understand what decision options are considered, what outcomes are of interest, what objectives are pursued, what facts, opinions, and disagreements exist and why, and finally why a particular decision option was selected. Shared understanding is written down and shared with everyone.

Open assessment is the overall method for knowledge support in a situation where open participation is allowed. Specifically, it deals with the issue of systematically combining scientific information and value judgements for improving societal decision making.

In dimensions of openness there are five different perspectives to openness in external participation of assessment processes: scope of participation, access to information, timing of openness, scope of contribution, and impact of contribution.

1b: Learning terms in Quizlet

Shared understanding: A situation where everyone has been heard about the topic at hand and where there is a written description about all facts, values, and reasoning and why there are agreements and disagreements.
Critique: A principle of open policy practice that all information must be subject to attacking scientific arguments. All statements not consistent with observations or not relevant in their context are invalidated and not used for making conclusions. The aim is to reject ideas, hypotheses - and ultimately decision options - that do not hold against scientific arguments.
Openness: A principle of open policy practice that all work and all information is constantly available for anyone to read, contribute, and criticize. If there are exceptions, these must be publicly justified. It is not judged a priori who may have important information or value judgments about the topic.
Intentionality: A principle of open policy practice that the management of work should be based on understanding of the objectives and values of the person for whom the work is done. Therefore, the decision maker explicates her objectives and decision options under consideration. The work studies impacts of the decision related to the objectives of the decision maker.
Knowledge crystal: A written description about a specific topic produced according to the principles of open policy practice. It has the structure question, answer, and rationale. It has an own page in a web-workspace, e.g. Opasnet.
Causality: A principle of open policy practice that policy support should be based on understanding of causes and effects related to the impacts of policy options, i.e. whether and why the policy options would lead to desired outcomes.
Shared information objects:A principle of open policy practice that information work should be performed by producing all information on topic-based web pages with permanent address. All information is organized using a systematic structure and a common workspace where all participants can work. Each topic has its own page with a permanent identifier (URL). Pages are continually updated as new information arises. Assessments, variables, and methods are typical page classes.
Reuse: All information is produced in a format and with methods that facilitate its use for other purposes by other people. For example, content in a PDF file is not machine readable, and therefore e.g. Opasnet variable pages are favored.
Co-creation: Joint effort to collaboratively produce information, typically supported by facilitators and performed utilizing online tools.
Shared information objects: A principle of open policy practice that information work should be performed by producing all information on topic-based web pages with permanent address. All information is organized using a systematic structure and a common workspace where all participants can work. Each topic has its own page with a permanent identifier (URL). Pages are continually updated as new information arises. Assessments, variables, and methods are typical page classes.
Evaluation and management: Guidance and criteria to observe the performance and potential of the work and its products, and taking corrective actions when necessary.
Grouping: Producing the participants a feeling that they belong to a group that works on an important topic and that values participants' contributions.
Respect: Valuation given to participants based on their contributions to produce and share information.

1c: Introduction to critical thinking

According to what i learn in khan academy, critical thinking is all about making good reasons for your beliefs.

1d: Introduction to probabilities

According to Khan academy, probability is the likelihood that something will happen and this can be calculated by looking at the possible outcomes.

Homework 3: Basic concepts of open assessment and co-creation

←# : Good. --Jouni (talk) 07:35, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

TASK A

I read and study homeworks 1 and 2.
I learn and study Glossary Terms in open policy practice.
I learn the introductory pages.

Some of the terms in open policy practice are;

Asymptotic test: It is a statistical tests that approach known properties as sample sizes increase.

Benchmark dose (BMD): It is an exposure due to a dose of a substance associated with a specified low incidence of risk, generally in the range of 1% to 10%, of a health effect; or the dose associated with a specified measure or change of a biological effect.

Cubic : It is an effect is a function of a measure raised to the third power.

Questions

I will like to find answer to the following statistical questions as the class continue.

What is P-value? --# : P value is a statistical test about how likely it would be to get results that deviate even more from the null hypothesis than what was observed. For example, if you compare means of some property (say, weight) in two groups with a t test, p value tells the probability that in a new similar study the means would differ even more. P value is based on several assumptions and you should be aware of those to avoid misinterpretations. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC)
What is regression analysis? --# : Regression analysis attempts to predict values of a "dependent variable" based on what is known about some "independent variables". For example, the independent variable of interest could be body weight of a laboratory animal (as body weight loss is an indicator of chronic toxicity), and the independent variables could be dose of a toxic chemical and sex of the animal, because they are thought to affect the body weight. As the outcome, you could get estimates about how much weight loss occurs per 1 mg/kg dose of the chemical, and how much sex affects this weight loss. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC)
what is Bernoulli distribution? --# : Bernoulli distribution is a probability distribution that describes situations where one event may lead to exactly two possible outcomes, often called TRUE/FALSE, or success/failure. Parameter p describes the probability of success. For example, tossing a coin is a Bernoulli process, and if the coin is fair (i.e., both sides are equally likely, p is 0.5. --Jouni (talk) 07:58, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

TASK B

The process in which the consumers participates in the decision on the production of goods and services for general consumption of the public is co-creation. The consumers interest, ideas and options is put in use and developed for the production of a satisfying goods and services. The first step in co-creation is the interaction of the firm with the consumers in a dialogue, access, transparency, and understanding of risk benefits that is central to value creations of goods. Unlike co-creation, traditional decision support processes, is carried out in such a way that consumers were in a sense “outside the firm.” Value creation occurred inside the firm (through its activities) and outside markets. in traditional decision support processes, the market is viewed as an aggregation of consumers and it was separated from the value creation process with no role in value creation, simply put, its role was value exchange and extraction.

An effective facilitator helps a group complete its primary task by trying to capitalize on the benefits derived from group work and also helping to overcome its dysfunctional dynamics such as free-riding, production blocking, evaluation apprehension, information overload, and cognitive inertia. To achieve an effective work, a facilitator encourages full participation, promotes mutual understanding, fosters inclusive solutions, and cultivates shared responsibility.

A good facilitator must have the following good skills:

**Skills of Good Facilitator**
SKILLS	EXPLANATION
Openness	A good facilitator should make the information of the work constantly available for anyone to read, contribute, and criticise. If there are exceptions, these must be publicly justified.
Co-creation	A good facilitator should make joint effort to collaboratively produce information with other workers.
A good sense of grouping	A good facilitator should make his co-workers or participants feel that they belong to a group that works on an important topic and that values participants' contributions. Simply put, he or she must make his participant feel a sense of belonging and that their contributions is valued.
Respect	A good facilitator should appreciate and give valuation to participants based on their contributions to produce and share information.
Active listener	A good facilitator must be a good listener. He must be good at balancing discussion and participation to discussion. Gathering lists of contributions and summarizing them and also paraphrasing and mirroring contribution.
Chart-writing	A good facilitator must have a clear writing manner. He must be good at flip-chart, Printing in straight, thick-lined, plain block and capital letters for clearer understanding by his co-worker.

Homework 4: Draft of an assessment plan

←# : Good. You can improve your answer based on my comments. The current evaluation of this homework is 1.0 / 2 points. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Scope

Question

How can the Bavarian Climate Programme 2020 achieve reduction of greenhouse-gases emission by year 2020 and how can this policy affect the rest of the world in mitigating pollution?

Intended use and users

The “Bavarian Climate Programme 2020” will proactively complement and boost the efforts being undertaken on international and national level on energy and climate programme of the German Federal Government and implementation of laws on national climate protection programme with a view to counteracting climate change and its consequences even more effectively.

Participants

The participants include; Bavarian Ministry of Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection (StMUGV). Other Ministries involved are the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology (StMWIVT), the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior (StMI), the Bavarian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (StMLF), the Bavarian Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (StMWFK) and the Bavarian Ministry of Finance (StMF). Scientists at universities and research institutions in Bavaria will also be able to participate in the programmes and also the Bavarian Council of Ministers.

Boundaries

This assessment is majorly designed for the city of Bavarian, though Bavaria’s share of global greenhouse-gas emissions is low, it wants to live up to its standard and as a role model. The only way to limit climate change as a global challenge is by non-EU industrial states also practicing sustainable climate protection and developing countries also making a reasonable contribution to climate protection. A key feature of the Bavarian Climate Programme is the preventive dual strategy of “Reduction and Adaptation”. Reduction policy in reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions and Adaptation policy in adaptation to the inevitable portion of climate change. This programme is an important project that need finance provided for them in the state budget or by third party financing institutions. Bavarian Climate Protection Policy programme focuses on both mitigation (reduction) and adaptation policy for the climate protection policy. Sustainable use of the development of renewable energies has to be made e.g. development potential of hydroelectric power of about 10 percent. Other adaptation to climate change implimented by the Bavarian include the introduction of a climate change factor in flood control measures, the forest redevelopment programme and the Bavarian storm warning system. Reduction action taken is the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions.

The reduction Policy include :

To reduce annual energy-related CO2 emissions to well below 6 tons per capita (subject to further use being made of nuclear energy),
To increase energy productivity by 30%,
To double the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption to 20 %,
To increase the share of renewable energies in electricity generated to 25 to 30 %,
To exploit the potential for increasing electricity generated from hydro-electric power taking account of the concerns of water management and nature conservation,
To increase the contribution of geothermal energy to 1 to 2 % of electricity generated and heat supplied,
To increase the share of biomass in the production of primary energy to 8 %,
To double the share of combined heat and power in the electricity produced (subject to future framework conditions on EU and Federal level),
To reduce the share of fossil sources of energy in the electricity produced.

The Bavaria's climate protection policy is aim on consistent saving of energy and even more efficient generation and use of energy on buildings, transport as well as the generation and use of electricity. The industry also make a decisive contribution towards increased energy efficiency and a more rational use of energy through innovative drive and new technologies. The building sectors is responsible for approximately 35 % of energy-related CO2 emissions in Bavaria, this sector is very important in saving energy and reducing CO2 emissions. other policy actions are CO2 reduction in municipalities (building). Social infrastructure such as schools, day care facilities and school gymnasiums requires refurbishment for a more efficient and reduce use of energy. In the aspect of transportation (traffic), the policy is aim at increasing energy efficiency in transport in a sustainable manner in order to reduce the emission of climate gases and ensure that mobility in passenger and goods traffic is maintained. to achieve this aim the Bavarian State Government policy introduce ambitious and realistic average emission limits for cars of 120g CO2/km in 2012, in compliance with the concepts of the European Union, by stipulating differentiated limiting values which take into consideration such parameters as vehicle weight, for example. However, the Bavarian Government rejects an undifferentiated limit because it cannot achieve a maximum reduction regarding the small and medium class vehicles that in Europe.

--# : Here you could comment more about what issues and aspects are taken into the assessment and what are left outside. For example: mitigation or adaptation actions or both? Are all sectors covered (industry, traffic, commerce...)? --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Decisions and scenarios

The collaboration or extension of this assessment to developing countries might pose lot of challenges. Since climate change can not be solely reduce by reducing greenhouse gases. Adaptation policy is very effective to achieve the Bavaria 2020 climate change policy. The adaptation policy of Bavarian Climate Change policy is applicable in sectors and areas which include: Water management, Agriculture and forestry, Nature conservation. The mitigation policy of Bavarian Climate Change policy is applicable in sectors such as; industry, building and transport.

WATER MANAGEMENT: Flood control is one aspect in water management which involves taking into account the dimensioning of flood control systems, with other actions such as increasing wide-scale flood-water retention, by reducing residual risks in flood control systems exposed to a risk of overflow and by keeping emergency overflow facilities clear for storage capacities. Precautionary step against drought and dry spells is important in water management. To achieve this, sustainable protection of usable groundwater resources and sensitive surface water bodies; updating thermal load plans and drawing up low-water management plans is important and should be implemented.

Industry: In reducing greenhouse gases the industry can make a decisive contribution towards increased energy efficiency and a more rational use of energy through innovative drive and new technologies.

CO2 Reduction in SMEs

In small and medium-sized commercial and industrial enterprises (SMEs) there is a high potential for improvement with regard to the efficient use of energy and therefore for a reduction in CO2 emissions.

Reduction and Absorption of Greenhouse-Gases in Other Sectors

Through improved feeding and organic fertilizer management, optimised performance in cattle farming, it is possible to reduce emissions in the animal husbandry sector. Optimising and minimising the use of nitrogen fertilizer in farming help to further reduce the emission of greenhouse-gases.

Buildings: Low energy construction and energetic refurbishment of new buildings that enable a more efficient use of energy is an efficient way of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Energy-efficient refurbishment of new buildings should be applicable to both properties owned by the State and private building also by church and social infrastructure such as schools, day care facilities and school gymnasiums, all these buildings needs refurbishment for a more efficient use of energy. This refurbishment measures apply to both buildings and technical equipment. Another measure to implement in reducing energy consumption in municipal buildings is to reduce CO2 generation in municipal building.

Transport: To increase energy efficiency in transport in a sustainable manner in order to reduce the emission of climate gases and ensure that mobility in passenger and goods traffic is maintained. Usage of public transport should be encourage and reduction in individual transport should be encourage, this will reduce generation of CO2 emissions caused by transportation. To further encourage this policy, the Bavarian State Government therefore supports the introduction of average emission limits for cars of 120g CO2/km since 2012.

Road Transport Infrastructure: Malfunctions and hindrances in the flow of traffic must be reduced to a minimum through good road network and traffic management measures. Through good road infrastructure planning, road construction can contribute greatly towards climate protection. It can reduce pollution from transport which is generated from exhaust from tail pipe of automobiles during traffic and congestions which could be due to heavy traffic. In Bavarian climate protection policy, 15 new traffic management systems are planned, predominantly in conglomerations and also provision of additional large-scale variable traffic guidance systems extending across the borders to other federal states and countries.

Renewable energies: Renewable energies can be generated through biomass, hydro-electric power and geothermal energy. These renewable energies can advance climate protection and secure the energy supply. Application of biomass can be seen in Biomass thermal power plants and the development of biomass local heating networks, as well as low-capacity heating systems using wood chips. Also it helps to enhanced waste-heat recovery from biogas plants. Application is also seen in use of biogenic fuels in Bavarian agricultural and forest farming as well as in vehicles of the state administration.

Hydro-Electric Power: The generation of electricity from hydropower can, however, be enhanced by building new facilities and improving the efficiency of the power plants. The main goal is to improve coordination of the use of hydropower with the concerns of water management and nature conservation.

Geothermal Energy: The aim is to generate electricity from geothermal energy which is already supported through the Renewable Energy Act, with utilisation of the energy for heating purposes with the aim purpose of climate protection.

⇤# : This is about the actions or policies that are evaluated in the assessment. Typically, this describes a group of possible actions, and the assessment conclusions are about recommending some of them. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Timing

The Bavarian Council of Ministers decided to update the Bavarian Climate Protection Programme launched in 2000 and amended in 2003 into a “Bavarian Climate Programme 2020”, with this in mind, the assessment as been launched since year 2000 and the assessment is gradually comming to an end.

Answer

With the discussed Bavarian climate protection policy which include both adaptation and reduction policy, the city of Bavaria should be able to achieve their goal of climate protection policy by the year 2020.

--# : Although you cannot know the answers of an assessments when you are just planning the assessment, you may describe here what kinds of answers you expect to achieve during the assessment work. --Jouni (talk) 06:15, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Results

The Bavarian climate protection policy utilization of nuclear power and hydropower in a climate-Friendly generation of electricity has yeilded a positive result in which in Bavaria merely 20% of electricity is generated in power plants that run on fossil fuel.

Conclusions

Rationale

Margaret

Stakeholders

Federal Government of Germany
The State Government of Bavaria city
Banks e.g KfW bank
Researchers
Engineers
Architects
automotive manufacturers
International Climate Partners

Dependencies

Analyses

The analysis to be performed during the assessment include the following:

Special programme for energetic refurbishment of state properties.
CO2 reduction in municipalities (municipal energy-saving concepts).
To strengthen climate protection in cooperation with the automotive industry.
To develop telematics and traffic guidance systems.
Information campaign for saving energy in buildings.
Information campaign on energy efficiency in private households and businesses
Precautions for preserving natural carbon sinks and improving the local climate

Indices

Calculations

Keywords

Climate protection, Adaptation, reduction, research, Bavaria, assessment

References

Bavarian climate programme 2020^[1]

↑ http://en.opasnet.org/w/File:Klimaprogramm2020_en_05_2009_ba.pdf

Related files

HOMEWORK 5

Questions:

1. What are the aims/goals of the strategy/program, i.e. what are the desired impacts and outcomes striven for?

Based on the huge Bavarian programme of climate protection policy in 2020, they plan to implement two policies which are Adaptation and Reduction. To achieve this, they have many aims.

The main aim of Bavaria climate protection policy 2020 was to illustrate the potential impact of climate change in Bavaria so that suitable preventive measures could be introduced to limit negative developments and new positive developments could be identified in good time.

Under Sustainable urban development they aim at reducing the amount of land used, creating compact housing units with cost effective forms of construction and housing development, introducing traffic-calming measures in residential areas and making rational use of energy by means of adapted urban concepts.

Under International Climate Partnership the aim of the partnership is to help reduce the consequences of climate change on local level.

Under Research Network for Power Plants for the 21st Century, the aim of the research network of power-plant manufacturers and scientific institutions is to improve the technology of thermal power plants with a view to improving their degree of effectiveness (efficiency) thus reducing climate-relevant emissions.

Under Reorganisation of the Schneefernerhaus Environmental Research Centre, the aim is to systematically develop the UFS into an internationally networked centre for climate and altitude research, in particular for the development, demonstration and operation of innovative technologies for validating satellite data, observing the climate and atmosphere as well as for early detection of natural hazards.

1.1. Who are those that benefit if the aims/goals of the strategy/program are reached?

the city of Bavaria benefit mostly if the aims and goals of the programme are reached and by extension the whole country of Germany. Sectors that are most likely to benefits include; water management, agriculture and forestry, nature conservation, Public health, soil protection and georisks. For example, in water management adaptation policy of the flood control action programme 2020 will help to increase wide-scale flood-water retention, by reducing residual risks in flood control systems that are exposed to a risk of overflow and also help to prevent drought and dry spells.

2. What are the actions that are needed/intended to take in order to progress towards the aims/goals?

The Bavarian Climate Programme 2020 was launched in 2000 and amended in 2003. It consist of cabinet committee who are commissioned to perform the task under the direction of the Bavarian Ministry of Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection (StMUGV). Other Ministries involved were the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology (StMWIVT), the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior (StMI), the

Bavarian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (StMLF), the Bavarian Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (StMWFK) and the Bavarian Ministry of Finance (StMF). The Bavarian Government also need the participation of non-EU industrial states and developing countries in practising sustainable climate protection. The actions to be taken are implemented in the following sectors: water management, agriculture and forestry, nature conservation, Public health, soil protection and georisks. The action include: reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 20% or by 30%. To increase the share of renewable energies in the total energy mix of the EU to 20%. To increase the share of biofuels in the total fuel market to 10%. To improve energy efficiency by 20%. In agricultural and forest farming climate-friendly farming methods and structural improvements, including instruments for land consolidation are encourage to reduce the emission of greenhouse-gases. Self-guided learning and action based on climate protection policies such as adaptation policy and reduction policy must start at an early age, with children and young people, and must continue and be encouraged on a lifelong basis. 2.1. Who are those that actually realize these actions?

They are; The Bavarian Council of Ministers, The Bavarian Ministry of Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection (StMUGV). The Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology (StMWIVT), the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior (StMI), The Bavarian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (StMLF), The Bavarian Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (StMWFK) and The Bavarian Ministry of Finance (StMF).

3. What are the decisions that are needed to make in order to enable/promote the actions?

Although it is a known fact that climate change could not be faced solely by reducing greenhouse gases or simply put through reduction methods therefore, adaptation strategy is needed to fully achieve climate protection goal. The Bavarian Climate Protection decisively take some good measures regarding the adaptation measures which include, flood control action programme for year 2020, taking precautions against drought and dry spells, forest redevelopment programme and programme to control georisks.

3.1. Who are the decision makers

[1] ttp://en.opasnet.org/w/File:Klimaprogramm2020_en_05_2009_ba.pdf

[1]

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 ===Conclusions===
-{{#l:Margaret.docx}}==Rationale==
+==Rationale==
+{{#l:Margaret.docx}}
 ===Stakeholders===
 :*Federal Government of Germany

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