Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

From Testiwiki
Jump to: navigation, search
(→‎Content and schedule: links to first session videos added)
m
 
(68 intermediate revisions by 6 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
 +
:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013]].
 +
 
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big>
 
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big>
  
Line 47: Line 49:
 
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
 
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
  
−
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: [[Decision analysis and risk management - background information]].
+
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
−
 
 
 
== Case study exercise ==
 
== Case study exercise ==
  
Line 57: Line 58:
 
== Evaluation ==
 
== Evaluation ==
  
−
Scale: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent) 
+
=== Whole course (6 ECTS) ===
  
−
'''Evaluation is based on:
+
The course grade consists of:
 +
* Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
 
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
 
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
−
* Completion of calculation exercises (1/3)
+
* Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
−
* Active participation during lectures will be taken into account while deciding final grades
+
 
 +
'''Classroom exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
 +
* Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
 +
 
 +
Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
 +
 
 +
'''Case study exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
 +
* Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
 +
 
 +
In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|case study exercise page]]. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
 +
 
 +
'''Course grading
 +
 
 +
The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
 +
 
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Course grade
 +
! Total score
 +
|-----
 +
| 0
 +
| <20
 +
|-----
 +
| 1
 +
| 21-25
 +
|-----
 +
| 2
 +
| 26-30
 +
|-----
 +
| 3
 +
| 31-35
 +
|-----
 +
| 4
 +
| 36-40
 +
|-----
 +
| 5
 +
| 41-45
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
 +
 
 +
'''Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the [[:heande:Decision analysis and risk management|corresponding password protected course page]] in Heande.
 +
 
 +
=== Partial accomplishments ===
 +
 
 +
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
 +
* Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 1: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 1: Decision analysis study plan|DA study plan]] (2 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 2: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 2: Risk management actions and options report|RM analysis]] (1 ECTS)
  
−
''For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course: lectures (3 ECTS), case study exercise part 1 (2 ECTS), or case study exercise part 2 (1 ECTS). Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale.
+
Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
  
 
== Content and schedule ==
 
== Content and schedule ==
Line 70: Line 125:
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course.'''  
 
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course.'''  
−
*Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work, in total 69 hours of teaching. In addition, self-organised group work and individual learning is expected to take ca. 100 hours.  
+
* Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.  
−
*Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.  
+
* Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.  
−
*Abbreviations: RA = risk assessment, DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RC = risk communication.
+
* Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 79: Line 134:
 
! Lecturer  
 
! Lecturer  
 
! Lecture room  
 
! Lecture room  
−
! Theory lectures and exercises
+
! Topics
 
! Material  
 
! Material  
−
! Case study discussions and exercises
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 28.2.  
 
| 28.2.  
 
| 10-13  
 
| 10-13  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
−
| S22
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
| '''[[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|Practical introduction to the course]]'''. (Jouni)
+
| '''Introduction to the course  
−
*Objectives, aims, expectations.
+
* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
*Content and teaching/study methods.
+
* introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 video], [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
*Example from risk assessment &amp; management study?
+
* Introduction to the swine flu story: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 video], [[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|slides]]
−
 
+
|
−
|
 
−
*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 Video:Intro to the course]  
 
−
*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 Video:Practical issues]
 
−
*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 Video:Swine flu intro]
 
−
| '''Introduction to the case study and exercises''' (Mikko)
 
−
*swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland 2009-2011: effects and side effects?
 
−
*group work: decision analysis study plan
 
−
*individual work: reflections on risk management options and actions
 
−
 
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 3.3.  
 
| 3.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
−
| S31
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=f26f90bb-1dd9-45cb-9b08-10ff419304cb&groupId=10128&t=1255516413730 S31]
−
| '''[[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|Introduction to risk management]]'''. What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+
| '''Introduction to risk management
−
*Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.
+
* Conventional perspectives to RM: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057097 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
*Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.  
+
* Open risk management: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057604 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
*Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
 
−
*Developing risk management options.
 
−
*Development of risk assessment questions.
 
−
*Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
 
−
*Boundaries of RA and RM
 
−
 
 
−
alternative framing:
 
−
* Risk
 
−
** what risk(s)?
 
−
** how about benefits (costs)?
 
−
** whose risks / whose benefits?
 
−
* Management:
 
−
** who manages?
 
−
** manages what?
 
−
** on what basis (&rarr; role of knowledge/learning)?
 
−
** manages how?
 
−
* &rarr; RM: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
 
−
** is ''risk'' the right question?
 
−
** are traditional RA, RM, RC approaches sufficient?
 
−
** a societal knowledge process
 
−
 
 
−
|  
 
 
|  
 
|  
 +
* [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/State_of_the_art_of_environmental_health_assessments State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 3.3.  
 
| 3.3.  
 
| 13-16  
 
| 13-16  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
 
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
−
| S23
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 +
| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/e/ed/Whiteboard_online.jpg whiteboard]
 +
* independent exploration
 +
** Beginning of the pandemic
 +
** preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
 +
* mini-presentations and discussion
 +
* summary
 
|  
 
|  
−
|
 
−
| '''Beginning of the swine flu story:''' How the swine flu problem emerged (spring 2009) and spread in the world. '''[[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|Swine flu story]]''' (summer 2009): Preparedness in Finland and internationally. Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns.
 
−
*Should we launch a vaccination campaign?
 
−
*Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination?
 
−
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 4.3.  
 
| 4.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| '''Mikko''', Jouni, Marko  
+
| '''Mikko''', Marko  
−
| MC9
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''  
 
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''  
−
*reading and browsing
+
* Introduction to Opasnet
−
*modes of contribution
+
* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
−
*user accounts / logging in
+
* Exercises
−
*basic editing
+
** user accounts
−
*commenting and discussing content
+
** DA study plan page
−
*Task: Build the page for the group work.
+
** RM report page
−
 
+
** browsing and searching
−
|
+
** commenting and discussing
 
|  
 
|  
 +
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
 +
* [[Opasnet]]
 +
* [[Help:Contents]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 4.3.  
 
| 4.3.  
 
| 13-16  
 
| 13-16  
−
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
+
| '''Jouni''', Marko  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''[[:File:Decision analysis.ppt|Decision analysis]]: introduction'''  
+
| '''Introduction to probability theory''': [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video], [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
−
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
 
−
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
 
−
*Measures of outcome: [[Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[WTP]]
 
−
 
 
−
'''[[:File:Probability theory.ppt|Probability theory]]'''
 
  
 
*[[Subjective probability]]  
 
*[[Subjective probability]]  
 
*Practical exercise  
 
*Practical exercise  
−
*Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks
+
*Bayesian rule [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13080233 video]
 
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
 
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
  
−
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]  
+
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
−
| '''Exercise part one begins:''' make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
+
 
 +
[[:heande:File:Lindley Philosophy of Statistics JRSS 200.pdf|Lindley, a backup file]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 8.3.  
 
| 8.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Jouni  
 
| Jouni  
−
| S22
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''.  
+
| '''Introduction to probability theory.''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13171805 video] [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|slides]]
−
|  
+
* Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.
−
| '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
+
'''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Measures of outcome: [[:en:Utility|Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[:en:Willingness to pay|WTP]]
 +
|
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 9.3.  
 
| 9.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Jouni  
 
| Jouni  
−
| S22
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''.  
+
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]; sorry, no video
−
|
+
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
 +
*Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
 +
'''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 +
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
 
|  
 
|  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 197: Line 229:
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Marko  
 
| Marko  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation'''  
+
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
−
*What is modeling or model?
+
*Computer modeling [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13220482 video]
−
*Why would you like to use Monte Carlo?  
+
**Why?
−
*Background of the MC method
+
*Approximation
−
*Monte Carlo, simulation and Monte Carlo simulation  
+
**When data is not available
−
*Practical implementation of MC
+
*Monte Carlo simulation
−
**Programs
+
**When and why to use?
−
**Defining the probability functions
+
*Common uncertainty distributions [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13221263 video]
−
**Reading the results
+
**Normal distribution is not the only option
−
*Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping
 
  
 +
'''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 11.3.  
 
| 11.3.  
 
| 8-11  
 
| 8-11  
 
| Marko  
 
| Marko  
−
| MC9
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
−
| '''Calculation exercise'''.  
+
| '''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
−
*Case: Mortality due to PM in Kuopio:
+
*Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
−
**Exposure-response function
 
−
**Exposure concentration
 
−
**Background mortality
 
  
−
|  
+
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/images/7/7b/Pope_2002.pdf Pope et al. 2002]
−
|
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 16.3.  
 
| 16.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Jouni
+
| '''Jouni''', Marko
−
| S22
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
| '''[[Bayesian updating]]'''  
 
−
*[[:File:Probability theory.ppt|Probability theory.ppt]]
 
−
 
 
−
|
 
 
|  
 
|  
 +
* '''Probabilistic models''' video [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
 +
| [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 17.3.  
 
| 17.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Jouni  
+
| '''Jouni''', Marko
−
| MC4
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=e40d7322-7e1e-44a2-93ef-32e284b65a69&groupId=10128&t=1262952468685 MC4]
−
| '''Calculation exercise of Bayes'''  
+
| '''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''  
−
|  
+
* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
−
|  
+
* [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
 +
* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' no video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
 +
| [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 18.3.  
 
| 18.3.  
 
| 13-16  
 
| 13-16  
 
| Jouni  
 
| Jouni  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Overall view of different models''': [[Producing result from rationale]].
+
| '''Overall view of different models''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13397033 video], [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
−
*[[:File:Overall view of models.ppt|Overall view of models.ppt]]  
+
Why do we do modelling?
−
*Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.  
+
* [[Producing result from rationale]].
−
*Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.  
+
**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.  
−
*Other relations (neural networks).
+
**Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.  
 +
**Other relations (neural networks).
 +
 
 +
'''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
  
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 21.3.  
 
| 21.3.  
−
| 9-12
+
| 11-14
 
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko  
 
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''  
 
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''  
−
*[[:File:Evaluating an assessment.ppt|Evaluating an assessment.ppt]]  
+
* Why decision analysis?: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13473130 video], [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]  
−
*Uncertainty and it's impact (1h Jouni)
+
* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
−
*Sensitivity analysis (1h Marko)
+
* Value of information: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13489919 video], [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]
−
*Value of information (1h Marko)
+
|
−
*Acceptability
+
*[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
−
*Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure
+
* [[Value of information]]
−
 
+
* [[Value of information analysis]]
−
|  
 
−
| '''Swine flu story:''' Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 22.3.  
 
| 22.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko  
+
| Mikko, Marko, Jouni 
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''. [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]].
+
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''.  
−
*Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
+
* Assessment performance: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13490379 video], [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
−
 
+
** quality assurance/quality control
−
|
+
** uncertainty
 +
** model performance
 +
** information in use
 +
** &rarr; [[:heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments]]
 
|  
 
|  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 284: Line 314:
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Marko  
 
| Marko  
−
| S24, MC9
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
−
| '''VOI calculation exercise. '''  
+
| '''Calculation exercise. '''  
−
*Case 1: Weather example:
+
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
−
**Two cities, daily temperature data for 1 year
 
−
**Question: what is the VOI to know the daily temperature vs. average temperature
 
−
**Calculations done in excel
 
−
*Case 2: Risk model:
 
−
**calculation of VOI by hand
 
−
**calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
 
  
−
|
 
 
|  
 
|  
 
|-
 
|-
Line 300: Line 323:
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
−
| S4069
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
−
|  
+
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.'''
 +
* Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
 +
* A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
 +
* DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.''' Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
 
−
*Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs?
 
−
*What should the model do? How should the results be used?
 
−
*The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work?
 
−
*The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
 
−
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 30.3.  
 
| 30.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Mikko, Jouni  
 
| Mikko, Jouni  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Risk management''' (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+
| '''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?
−
*Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.  
+
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13656373 video]
−
*What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM?
+
** perspectives to assessment and management
−
*Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.
+
** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
−
*Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
+
** What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
−
*Developing risk management options.
+
** RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
−
*Development of risk assessment questions.
+
** contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
−
*Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
+
* discussion:
−
 
+
** assessment and management in the swine flu case
−
'''[[Opasnet]]''' and other web-based decision support systems.
+
** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
−
 
 
−
|
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
'''Exercise part two begins''': Risk management actions and options.  
+
* [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
−
 
+
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
 +
* [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 31.3.  
 
| 31.3.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
| Mikko, Jouni  
−
| S23
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
−
| '''[[Trialogue]], collective learning'''  
+
| '''Risk management''': a social learning perspective
−
*[[:File:Shared understanding.ppt|Shared understanding.ppt]]  
+
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13676880 video]
−
*[[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]] and its problems
+
** participation in assessment and management
−
*[[Inference rules]]: how do we know what we know?
+
** dimensions of openness
−
*Shared information vs. private information  
+
** assessments as collaborative information production projects
−
*Actions by a group based on shared information
+
* discussion:
−
*[[Shared belief system]]s
+
** role of public in swine flu case RM?
−
*Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
+
** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
−
 
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Swine flu story:''' Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
+
* [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 1.4.  
 
| 1.4.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
| Mikko, Jouni  
−
| MC9
 
−
| '''[[Inference rules]]. [[Scientific method]]''' as open discussion. [[Falsification]].
 
−
*Do we need pre-peer-review?
 
−
 
 
 
|  
 
|  
 +
* 9-10: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S21]
 +
* 10-12: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
** collective knowledge creation
 +
*** ''pragmatism, abduction and [[Trialogue|trialogical approach]]
 +
*** ''a game of questions and answers
 +
** pragmatic knowledge services
 +
** from an information society towards a knowledge society
 +
* exercise ([[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|task]]):
 +
** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
 +
** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
 
|  
 
|  
 +
* [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
 +
* [[Argumentation]]
 +
* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
 +
* [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 7.4.  
 
| 7.4.  
 
| 13-16  
 
| 13-16  
−
| Mikko  
+
| Jouni, Mikko  
−
| S4069
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
−
|  
+
| '''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
−
'''[[Discussion]]''': Lectures of concepts
+
* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]] video: Mikko, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13830606 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831230 2] Jouni, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831527 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831967 2]
−
 
+
** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
−
*[[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]], [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].  
+
** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
−
*Parts of [[Argumentation]].
+
*** hypothesis development and testing
−
 
+
*** discussion
−
Structuring of discussions in practice and theory
+
*** shared belief systems
−
 
+
*** inference rules
−
*Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation
+
*** evaluation of page content in Opasnet
−
*Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day.
+
* Discussion
−
*Build a structured discussion out of this in groups.
+
** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
−
*Possibly utilise group writing tools?
 
−
 
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Swine flu story (autumn 2010)''': Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
+
* [[Inference rules]]
 +
* [[Scientific method]]
 +
* [[Falsification]]
 +
* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
 +
* [[Shared belief system]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 8.4.  
 
| 8.4.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
−
| Mikko  
+
| Jouni, Mikko  
−
| S22
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
|  
+
| '''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13848926 video]
 +
* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
 +
** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
 +
** Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
 +
* An [[Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|example of a swine flu DA]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13849567 video]
 +
** overview
 +
** model
 +
** results and analyses
 +
** conclusions
 +
** relations to groups' DA study plans
 +
* What's new about the swine flu case?
 +
* Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
 +
* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
 +
** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 11.4.  
 
| 11.4.  
 
| 9-12  
 
| 9-12  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
|  
+
| '''Final seminar:'''
 +
* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
 +
** focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
 +
** presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 12.4.  
 
| 12.4.  
 
| 8-11  
 
| 8-11  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
 
| Jouni, Mikko  
−
| S24
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Wrap-up and course feedback.'''  
+
| '''Final seminar'''
−
|  
+
* Presentations of the RM exercises continues
−
| '''Final seminar''' (cont'd).
+
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
== Help and guidance ==
 +
 
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Topic
 +
! Contact
 +
|-----
 +
| General arrangements
 +
| [[User:Jouni]], [[User:Mikko Pohjola]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: content
 +
| [[User:Jouni]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: technical
 +
| [[User:Teemu R]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Calculation exercises
 +
| [[User:Marko]]
 
|}
 
|}
  
−
'''For the case study description, see {{disclink|Case study exercise (draft)}}.'''
+
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
 +
 
 +
== See also ==
  
−
==See also==
+
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
  
−
=== General information sources on H1N1 influenza (Swine flu) ===
+
=== Links to additional RM materials ===
 +
 
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_1_Risk_Governance__reprinted_version_.pdf IRGC risk governance framework]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_rgd_web_final.pdf Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration]
 +
* [http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/volume2/pdf/v2epa.PDF Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org International Risk Governance Council]
 +
* [http://nap.edu/ The National Academies Press] (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
 +
 
 +
=== General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu) ===
  
 
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1v Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)]
 
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1v Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)]
Line 416: Line 499:
 
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1 EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination]
 
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1 EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination]
  
−
=== Links to information on specific topics ===
+
=== Links to information on specific swine flu topics ===
  
 
''(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
 
''(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
Line 424: Line 507:
  
 
'''Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
 
'''Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
−
*[http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitus/artikkeli/Sikainfluenssa+uhkaa+koulujen+alkua/HS20090714SI1MA01b9h],[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/vimo/sll202009-1894.pdf],[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx],[http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/documents/Report%20McKinsey%20Business%20Plan%20Flu3.pdf]
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=15437],[http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitus/artikkeli/Sikainfluenssa+uhkaa+koulujen+alkua/HS20090714SI1MA01b9h],[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/vimo/sll202009-1894.pdf],[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx],[http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/documents/Report%20McKinsey%20Business%20Plan%20Flu3.pdf],[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_vaccine],[http://www.gsk.com/media/pressreleases/2009/2009_pressrelease_10089.htm],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23508]],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Health+officials+say+WHO+pandemic+pronouncement+does+not+alter+Finland%E2%80%99s+preparations+for+swine+flu/1135246834295]
  
 
'''Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
 
'''Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
−
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/rokotteet/sikainfluenssa_html]
+
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/rokotteet/sikainfluenssa_html],[http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/artikkeli/MTV3+Arkkiatri+moittii+sikainfluenssarokotteen+vastustajia/1135250236010]
  
 
'''The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
 
'''The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
−
*[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/osastot/infe/h1n1_2.pdf],[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/ajankohtaista/?bid=3328]
+
*[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/osastot/infe/h1n1_2.pdf],[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/ajankohtaista/?bid=3328],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=21364],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=13307]
  
−
'''Implementation of the vaccination campaign in FInland
+
'''Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland
 +
*[http://www.thl.fi/thl-client/pdfs/d8b1f8bd-1885-48cd-b924-cc6130f55f42],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1/generalinformation/swinefluvaccination/schedule],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22030],[http://yle.mobi/w/uutiset/yle24/ns-yduu-3-1171969],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=15578]
  
 
'''Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
 
'''Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
−
*[http://euro-med.dk/?p=13428],[http://blog.frequencyfoundation.com/2010/01/who-refuses-to-name-members-of-secret.html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/yhd/tiedotteet/tiedote_091024_html]
+
*[http://euro-med.dk/?p=13428],[http://blog.frequencyfoundation.com/2010/01/who-refuses-to-name-members-of-secret.html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/yhd/tiedotteet/tiedote_091024_html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html]
  
 
'''Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
 
'''Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
−
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/medicines/human/medicines/000832/human_med_000965.jsp&murl=menus/medicines/medicines.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058001d125],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_All_Authorised_presentations/human/000832/WC500038123.pdf],[http://www.drugdevelopment-technology.com/projects/pandemrix/],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23508]
+
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/medicines/human/medicines/000832/human_med_000965.jsp&murl=menus/medicines/medicines.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058001d125],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_All_Authorised_presentations/human/000832/WC500038123.pdf],[http://www.drugdevelopment-technology.com/projects/pandemrix/],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Summary_for_the_public/human/000832/WC500038122.pdf]
  
 
'''Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
 
'''Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
Line 444: Line 528:
  
 
'''Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
 
'''Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
 +
*[http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2010/09/eu_agency_no_link_between_pandemrix_and_narcolepsy_2006172.html],[http://www.mediuutiset.fi/uutisarkisto/article488794.ece]
  
 
'''Halting of vaccination campaign
 
'''Halting of vaccination campaign
−
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22930 THL]
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22930 THL],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/H1N1+vaccinations+suspended+over+narcolepsy+scare/1135259606164]
  
 
'''THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
 
'''THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
Line 452: Line 537:
  
 
'''Searching for the guilty
 
'''Searching for the guilty
 +
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html],[http://www.laakarilehti.fi/uutinen.html?opcode=show/news_id=10005/type=1],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Ministry+official+defends+decision+to+order+swine+flu+vaccine/1135259622342]
  
 
'''EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
 
'''EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
Line 476: Line 562:
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
 +
 +
<references/>
  
 
== Related files  ==
 
== Related files  ==
Line 481: Line 569:
 
{{mfiles}}
 
{{mfiles}}
 
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
 
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
 +
[[Category:Open assessment training]]
 +
[[Category:DARM exercise]]
 +
 +
{{eracedu}}

Latest revision as of 12:41, 5 December 2012

This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013.

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

  • To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
    • utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
    • avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
  • Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 60 h
  • Calculation exercises 9 h
  • Independent assessment study
    • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
    • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
  • Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

The course grade consists of:

  • Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
  • Case study exercise (2/3)
  • Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)

Classroom exercise scoring

  • Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
  • Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 4: max. score 5 points

Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).

Case study exercise scoring

  • Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
  • Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points

In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.

Course grading

The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.

Course grade Total score
0 <20
1 21-25
2 26-30
3 31-35
4 36-40
5 41-45

The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.

Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the corresponding password protected course page in Heande.

Partial accomplishments

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:

  • Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.

Content and schedule

Schedule and contents of the course.
  • Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
  • Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
  • Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Date Time Lecturer Lecture room Topics Material
28.2. 10-13 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S22 Introduction to the course
  • introduction to decision analysis: video , slides
  • introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides
  • Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S31 Introduction to risk management
3.3. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S23 Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard
  • independent exploration
    • Beginning of the pandemic
    • preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
  • mini-presentations and discussion
  • summary
4.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko MC9 Introduction to using Opasnet
  • Introduction to Opasnet
  • Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
  • Exercises
    • user accounts
    • DA study plan page
    • RM report page
    • browsing and searching
    • commenting and discussing
4.3. 13-16 Jouni, Marko S24 Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics

Lindley, a backup file

8.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Introduction to probability theory. video slides
  • Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.

Decision analysis (continued). slides

9.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.

Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?

  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
10.3. 9-12 Marko S24 Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides
  • Computer modeling video
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions video
    • Normal distribution is not the only option

Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.

11.3. 8-11 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise: slides
  • Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 Pope et al. 2002
16.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko S22
  • Probabilistic models video slides
 Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model
17.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko MC4 Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation
18.3. 13-16 Jouni S24 Overall view of different models video, slides

Why do we do modelling?

  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).

First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.

21.3. 11-14 Jouni, Marko, Mikko S24 Decision making under uncertainty
22.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko, Jouni S24 Decision-making under uncertainty (continued).
25.3. 9-12 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise.
29.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Full drafts of DA study plans.
  • Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
  • A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
  • DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
30.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S24 Risk management: State-of-the-art?
  • lecture: slides, video
    • perspectives to assessment and management
    • tendencies in EHA and EHRM
    • What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
    • RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
    • contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
  • discussion:
    • assessment and management in the swine flu case
    • questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
31.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S23 Risk management: a social learning perspective
  • lecture: slides, video
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
1.4. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management
  • lecture: slides
    • collective knowledge creation
    • pragmatic knowledge services
    • from an information society towards a knowledge society
  • exercise (task):
    • Discussion and structured argumentation in Opasnet
    • argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
7.4. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
  • Lecture: slides video: Mikko, part 1 2 Jouni, part 1 2
    • Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
    • It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
      • hypothesis development and testing
      • discussion
      • shared belief systems
      • inference rules
      • evaluation of page content in Opasnet
  • Discussion
    • Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
8.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S22 Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides, video
  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
    • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
  • An example of a swine flu DA, video
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
11.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar:
  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
    • presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
12.4. 8-11 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar
  • Presentations of the RM exercises continues
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

Links to information on specific swine flu topics

(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)

Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic

Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland

Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland

The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland

Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland

Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)

Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.

Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere

Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy

Halting of vaccination campaign

THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication

Searching for the guilty

EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy

Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere



Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>

Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination
Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination
Retrieved from "http://www.opasnet.org/testiwiki/index.php?title=Decision_analysis_and_risk_management&oldid=26779"