Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

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Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
- utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
- avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.

Course details

Name: Decision analysis and risk management
Abbreviation: DARM
ECTS-credits: 6
Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
Registration for the Course: Wossikka

Teaching / Learning Methods

Lectures and discussions 60 h
Calculation exercises 9 h
Independent assessment study
- Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
- Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: Decision analysis and risk management - background information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Scale: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Evaluation is based on:

Case study exercise (2/3)
Completion of calculation exercises (1/3)
Active participation during lectures will be taken into account while deciding final grades

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course: lectures (3 ECTS), case study exercise part 1 (2 ECTS), or case study exercise part 2 (1 ECTS). Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale.

Content and schedule

**Schedule and contents of the course.**
Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work, in total 69 hours of teaching. In addition, self-organised group work and individual learning is expected to take ca. 100 hours.

Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.

Abbreviations: RA = risk assessment, DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RC = risk communication.
Date	Time	Lecturer	Lecture room	Topics	Material
28.2.	10-13	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S22	Introduction to the course introduction to decision analysis: video , slides introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S31	Introduction to risk management Conventional perspectives to RM: video, slides Open risk management: video, slides	Framework for environmental health risk management Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework IRGC risk governance framework Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration Risk governance deficits - Policy brief State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)
3.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S23	Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides independent exploration Beginning of the pandemic preparedness in Finland and elsewhere mini-presentations and discussion summary
4.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni, Marko	MC9	Introduction to using Opasnet Introduction to Opasnet Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities Exercises user accounts DA study plan page RM report page browsing and searching commenting and discussing	Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet Opasnet Help:Contents
4.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S24	Decision analysis: introduction Purpose of assessment: Why it is done Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP Probability theory Subjective probability Practical exercise Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage) Exercise part one begins: make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?	Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics
8.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued). Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
9.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued).
10.3.	9-12	Marko	S24	Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation What is modeling or model? Why would you like to use Monte Carlo? Background of the MC method Monte Carlo, simulation and Monte Carlo simulation Practical implementation of MC Programs Defining the probability functions Reading the results Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3.	8-11	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise. Case: Mortality due to PM in Kuopio: Exposure-response function Exposure concentration Background mortality
16.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Bayesian updating Probability theory.ppt
17.3.	9-12	Jouni	MC4	Calculation exercise of Bayes
18.3.	13-16	Jouni	S24	Overall view of different models: Producing result from rationale. Overall view of models.ppt Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates. Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations. Other relations (neural networks). First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
21.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko, Mikko	S24	Decision making under uncertainty Evaluating an assessment.ppt Uncertainty and it's impact (1h Jouni) Sensitivity analysis (1h Marko) Value of information (1h Marko) Acceptability Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure Swine flu story: Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
22.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S24	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Value of information, Value of information analysis. Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
25.3.	9-12	Marko	S24, MC9	VOI calculation exercise. Case 1: Weather example: Two cities, daily temperature data for 1 year Question: what is the VOI to know the daily temperature vs. average temperature Calculations done in excel Case 2: Risk model: calculation of VOI by hand calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
29.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S4069	Full drafts of DA study plans. Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary. Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs? What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
30.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S24	Risk management (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM? Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate. Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded? Developing risk management options. Development of risk assessment questions. Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist. Opasnet and other web-based decision support systems. Exercise part two begins: Risk management actions and options.
31.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S23	Trialogue, collective learning Shared understanding.ppt Justified true belief and its problems Inference rules: how do we know what we know? Shared information vs. private information Actions by a group based on shared information Shared belief systems Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production. Swine flu story: Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
1.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	MC9	Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion. Falsification. Do we need pre-peer-review?
7.4.	13-16	Mikko	S4069	Discussion: Lectures of concepts Pragma-dialectics, argumentation theory. Parts of Argumentation. Structuring of discussions in practice and theory Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day. Build a structured discussion out of this in groups. Possibly utilise group writing tools? Swine flu story (autumn 2010): Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
8.4.	9-12	Mikko	S22	Swine flu story (January 2011): Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
11.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
12.4.	8-11	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar (cont'd). Wrap-up and course feedback.

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.

References

Related files

Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

Revision as of 15:27, 1 March 2011

Contents

Aims of the course

Course details

Lectures

Case study exercise

Evaluation

Content and schedule

See also

General information sources on H1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

Links to information on specific topics

Keywords

References

Related files

Navigation menu

Personal tools

Namespaces

Variants

Views

More

Search

Navigation

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Tools

In other websites

@@ Line 79: / Line 79: @@
 ! Lecturer
 ! Lecture room
-! Theory lectures and exercises
+! Topics
 ! Material
-! Case study discussions and exercises
 |-
 | 28.2.
@@ Line 87: / Line 86: @@
 | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 | S22
-| '''[[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|Practical introduction to the course]]'''. (Jouni)
+| '''Introduction to the course
-*Objectives, aims, expectations.
+* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
-*Content and teaching/study methods.
+* introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 video], [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
-*Example from risk assessment &amp; management study?
+* Introduction to the swine flu story: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 video], [[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|slides]]
+|
-|
-*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 Video:Intro to the course]
-*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 Video:Practical issues]
-*[http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 Video:Swine flu intro]
-| '''Introduction to the case study and exercises''' (Mikko)
-*swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland 2009-2011: effects and side effects?
-*group work: decision analysis study plan
-*individual work: reflections on risk management options and actions
 |-
 | 3.3.
@@ Line 106: / Line 96: @@
 | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 | S31
-| '''[[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|Introduction to risk management]]'''. What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+| '''Introduction to risk management
-*Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.
+* Conventional perspectives to RM: video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
-*Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.
+* Open risk management: video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
-*Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
-*Developing risk management options.
-*Development of risk assessment questions.
-*Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
-*Boundaries of RA and RM
-alternative framing:
-* Risk
-** what risk(s)?
-** how about benefits (costs)?
-** whose risks / whose benefits?
-* Management:
-** who manages?
-** manages what?
-** on what basis (&rarr; role of knowledge/learning)?
-** manages how?
-* &rarr; RM: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
-** is ''risk'' the right question?
-** are traditional RA, RM, RC approaches sufficient?
-** a societal knowledge process
-|
 |
+* [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
+* [http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/volume2/pdf/v2epa.PDF Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making]
+* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
+* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_1_Risk_Governance__reprinted_version_.pdf IRGC risk governance framework]
+* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_rgd_web_final.pdf Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration]
+* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
+* [http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/State_of_the_art_of_environmental_health_assessments State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)]
 |-
 | 3.3.
@@ Line 137: / Line 112: @@
 | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 | S23
+| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
+* independent exploration
+** Beginning of the pandemic
+** preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
+* mini-presentations and discussion
+* summary
 |
-|
-| '''Beginning of the swine flu story:''' How the swine flu problem emerged (spring 2009) and spread in the world. '''[[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|Swine flu story]]''' (summer 2009): Preparedness in Finland and internationally. Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns.
-*Should we launch a vaccination campaign?
-*Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination?
 |-
 | 4.3.
@@ Line 149: / Line 125: @@
 | MC9
 | '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''
-*reading and browsing
+* Introduction to Opasnet
-*modes of contribution
+* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
-*user accounts / logging in
+* Exercises
-*basic editing
+** user accounts
-*commenting and discussing content
+** DA study plan page
-*Task: Build the page for the group work.
+** RM report page
+** browsing and searching
-|
+** commenting and discussing
 |
+* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
+* [[Opasnet]]
+* [[Help:Contents]]
 |-
 | 4.3.
@@ Line 175: / Line 154: @@
 *Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
-| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
+'''Exercise part one begins:''' make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
-| '''Exercise part one begins:''' make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
+| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
 |-
 | 8.3.
@@ Line 182: / Line 161: @@
 | Jouni
 | S22
-| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''.
+| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 |
-| '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 |-
 | 9.3.
@@ Line 191: / Line 169: @@
 | S22
 | '''Decision analysis (continued)'''.
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 209: / Line 186: @@
 *Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping
+'''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 |
-| '''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 |-
 | 11.3.
@@ Line 222: / Line 199: @@
 **Background mortality
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 232: / Line 208: @@
 *[[:File:Probability theory.ppt|Probability theory.ppt]]
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 240: / Line 215: @@
 | MC4
 | '''Calculation exercise of Bayes'''
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 252: / Line 226: @@
 *Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
 *Other relations (neural networks).
+'''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
 |
-| '''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
 |-
 | 21.3.
@@ Line 267: / Line 242: @@
 *Acceptability
 *Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure
+'''Swine flu story:''' Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
 |
-| '''Swine flu story:''' Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
 |-
 | 22.3.
@@ Line 278: / Line 254: @@
 *Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 294: / Line 269: @@
 **calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 301: / Line 275: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | S4069
-|
-|
 | '''Full drafts of DA study plans.''' Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
 *Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs?
@@ Line 308: / Line 280: @@
 *The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work?
 *The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
+|
 |-
 | 30.3.
@@ Line 325: / Line 297: @@
 '''[[Opasnet]]''' and other web-based decision support systems.
+'''Exercise part two begins''': Risk management actions and options.
 |
-|
-'''Exercise part two begins''': Risk management actions and options.
 |-
 | 31.3.
@@ Line 343: / Line 313: @@
 *Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
+'''Swine flu story:''' Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
 |
-| '''Swine flu story:''' Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
 |-
 | 1.4.
@@ Line 353: / Line 323: @@
 *Do we need pre-peer-review?
-|
 |
 |-
@@ Line 373: / Line 342: @@
 *Possibly utilise group writing tools?
+'''Swine flu story (autumn 2010)''': Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
 |
-| '''Swine flu story (autumn 2010)''': Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
 |-
 | 8.4.
@@ Line 380: / Line 349: @@
 | Mikko
 | S22
+| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
 |
-|
-| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
 |-
 | 11.4.
@@ Line 388: / Line 356: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | S24
+| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
 |
-|
-| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
 |-
 | 12.4.
@@ Line 396: / Line 363: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | S24
-| '''Wrap-up and course feedback.'''
-|
 | '''Final seminar''' (cont'd).
+'''Wrap-up and course feedback.'''
 |}
-'''For the case study description, see {{disclink|Case study exercise (draft)}}.'''
 ==See also==