Difference between revisions of "Helsinki energy decision 2015"

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Revision as of 06:19, 9 June 2015



Scope

Question

What options does Helsinki have for main energy solutions, and which options are good or bad in terms of

  • climate mitigation,
  • stability (fuel availability etc),
  • cost to the city and citizens,
  • environment,
  • biofuel use,
  • national energy balance,
  • domestic source,
  • health?[1]

Intended use and users

Helsinki City Council will make a major decision in autumn 2015 about renovating old power plants, building a new one, or some other option replacing the need of the old power plants. Therefore, the City Council is the major user of the assessment. There are also secondary uses, such as informing national energy discussion and demonstrating the usefulness of an open combined energy balance and building model.

Participants

The work is coordinated by Jouni Tuomisto from THL / Impact Assessment Unit. Their motivation is to assess the environmental health aspects of the decision. Participants that we hope get involved when they are informed about the assessment include (not in any particular order)

  • THL: Jouni, Pauli, Teemu, Matleena, Julia, Olli
  • the City of Helsinki,
  • Helen energy company,
  • Jorma Jokiniemi (expert in emission factors from UEF),
  • Osmo Soininvaara (politician, economist from Helsinki),
  • Peter Lund (energy expert from Aalto University),
  • Niko Karvosenoja (air emission expert from SYKE),
  • Sanna Syri (energy expert from SYKE),
  • Sanni Väisänen (expert in greenhouse gas emission factors).
  • Matti Jantunen (expert in environmental health, exposure, and energy)
  • Satu Taavitsainen, parliamentarist, chairman of Mikkeli city council [2]
  • Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen (energy costs and pricing, SYKE [3])

Boundaries

  • Time: 2015 - 2060
  • Energy need estimated for Helsinki.
  • Main focus is on local heat and power need. Energy balance estimated for Helsinki (electricity nationally).
  • Health impacts estimated for the regional area (ca. 300 km radius)
  • Impacts are assessed separately for the citizen, the city, Helen energy company, and Finland.
  • Transport is not looked at although it is an important energy consumer. This is because there is no interaction with heating except via city structure, and there are no resources to look at that in this assessment. Electric cars would have an interaction with electricity production, but that applies to the total electricity market area (Finland, partly Scandinavia) and is too complex to look at.

Decisions and scenarios

Main article: Helsinki energy decision options 2015

The first two options are those that are in the official decision preparation. However, also other options have been suggested, and also they are evaluated at least superficially.

  1. Hanasaari and Salmisaari power plants are renovated so that they can use 50 % wood-based fuel.
  2. A new power plant is built in Vuosaari with capacity to burn 100 % wood-based fuel. Hanasaari power plant is demolished and replaced with apartments.
  3. Decentralised energy production is built as much as is feasible. In practice, this means solar panels (on roofs) and wind mills, possibly also geothermal energy. A special focus is to estimate the plausible upper capacity of this option (temporally resolved!).
  4. Business as usual: Like number 1 but remain with coal and gas.
  5. Massive energy saving campaign to reduce the need of energy.
  6. District heating from Loviisa 3 power plant.
  7. A new power plant is built in Vuosaari to burn 80 % wood-based fuel? [4]
  8. Hanasaari B and Salmisaari B power plants are renovated to burn 100% biofuels [5]
  9. --# : What were the four options considered in ca. 2013? --Jouni (talk) 05:09, 14 May 2015 (UTC)

Timing

The assessment started in May 2015. First draft results are expected before midsummer 2015. Final results should be available well before the City Council makes the decision in autumn, which means that results should exist by September 15th, 2015.

Answer

Results

Conclusions

Rationale

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Causal diagram for the assessment.

Teaching and training for students in Helsinki for julia et al

Olli can you do css that shows blueboxes and hidden codes?

Politics is not about getting your mind. It is about learning about good and bad actions based on values. Negotiationsa are useful only when you know which actions promote your values.

Costs of fuel. Costs on energy type in general. Predict fuel prices into the future and adjust. How do you minimize a matrix? Run lots of iterations and select from oosterior distribution?

Stakeholders

The impacts are assessed and valued from the point of view of the following stakeholders:

  • The city of Helsinki
  • Helen Oy energy company
  • A citizen of Helsinki
  • Finland
  • Global view

Dependencies

Data needed about each energy production process. Note: the energy in the denominator is always the total thermal energy of all fuels going into the process. Thermal energy means the amount of energy that is released when the fuel is burned in optimal conditions.

  • Inputs:
    • Fuels used per total thermal energy (each fuel separately) (kg/MJ)
    • Fixed costs (construction and maintenance) (€/a)
    • Operational costs (costs to run) (€/MJ)
    • Other inputs (chemicals etc.)
  • Outputs:
    • Heat produced (MJ/MJ)
    • Power (electricity) produced (MJ/MJ)
    • Other energy produced (e.g. steam or other products going to somethin useful) (MJ/MJ)
    • Energy loss (MJ/MJ)
    • PM2.5 emissions (kg/MJ)
    • CO2 emissions (kg/MJ)
    • Other emissions (e.g. ash, P etc.) (kg/MJ)
  • Other info
    • Maximum capacity of the energy plant (MW)
    • Description on how the plant is run (at what demand level it is started, is the plant run up and down based on need)
    • Other info

Other data that we need to check where it goes.

Variables in the assessment model
Variable Measure Indices
buildings (from the Building model)
stockBuildings From statistics data in OB Building stock in floor-m2 at given timepoints: Stock details in Opasnet Base Time (Valmistusmisaika), City_area (Sijainti), Building (Käyttötarkoitus), Heating (Lämmitystapa, Polttoaine), Efficiency (Varusteena koneellinen ilmanvaihto, Perusparannus)
heatingShares = 1 Building stock in Helsinki Fractions of heating types. Should sum up to 1 within each group defined by optional indices. Data is already in stockBuildings, so we use 1 here. Heating, Time, Building
efficiencyShares Energy efficiency of new buildings in the future. OpasnetBase Fraction of energy efficiency types of new buildings in the future. Should sum up to 1 for each group defined by other indices. Fractions of heating and energy efficiency: from Facta data and Energiatodistusrekisteri This can be used to derive energy classes and the U values for buildings in Helsinki. Efficiency, Time, Building.
changeBuildings = stockBuildings * 0.02 /a Construction or demolition rate as floor-m2 at given timepoints. Implemented in code. Time, Efficiency, Heating. changeBuildings should have all indices in stockBuildings, heatingShares, and efficiencyShares.
renovationShares Guesstimate data in OB Fraction of renovation types when renovation is done. Should sum to 1 for each group defined by other indices. Renovation, Startyear. Startyear is the time when the renovation is done, and it must be different than the Time index.
renovationRate Guesstimate data in OB Rate of renovation (fraction per time unit). Age (the time difference between construction and renovation, i.e. Startyear - Time for each building).
obstime Ten-year intervals 1980 - 2060. one-column data.frame about the years to be used in output. Startyear
heating_before = FALSE If TRUE, heatingShares contains data and is added to buildings before obstime.
efficiency_before = TRUE If TRUE, efficiencyShares contains data and is added to buildings before obstime.
heatingEnergy: Energy consumption from the Building model ←# : Move code to Heating consumption of buildings --Jouni (talk) 03:48, 9 June 2015 (UTC)
energyUse Baseline energy consumption [6] ←# : Update this to use U values and ambient temperatures. --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC) Also use Building stock in Helsinki, Table 6. --# : Again relevant, because energy consumption is estimated. --Heta (talk) 10:02, 15 May 2015 (UTC) Energy consumption per floor area (kWh / m2 /a) (U: W/m2/K * T: K * Area: m2) Building, Heating.
efficiencyRatio Energy use of buildings#Energy efficiency in heating) Opasnet Base Relative energy consumption compared with the efficiency group Old. Efficiency.
renovationRatio Impact of renovations Opasnet Base Relative energy consumption compared with the Renovation location None. Renovation.
energyBalance Energy balance in Helsinki
heatingEnergy (see above)
consumerElectricity: from Baseline energy consumption Opasnet Base based on floor area Amount of consumer electricity use (MW) calculated based on either amount of people or floor-m2 Hour (time of day), others?
otherEnergy Helsinki energy consumption Other energy consumption (industry, transport, other): from statistics of Helsinki Helsingin ympäristötilasto ←# : There's a lot data of which at least some statistics will be useful for this project. --Heta (talk) 13:38, 19 May 2015 (UTC). Thermal energy need in Helsinki Metropolitan Area ←# : We will use this data for checking model results. And also for sectors that are not modelled (industry, transport). --Jouni (talk) 15:45, 17 May 2015 (UTC) Time
windElectricity Check [1] about possibilities and Wind pattern Tuuliatlas about useful wind mill sites in Helsinki. Amount of wind power produced (MW) by wind type. We also need amounts of hours with different wind patterns per year. Hour (do we need this, is wind power production dependent on time of day?), Weather (temperature and weather types), maybe Wind (Windy, Normal, Calm)
solarElectricity Amount of solar energy produced (MW) in certain conditions. Data source? Hour, Month, Weather, maybe Sun (Sunny, Cloudy, Dark) --# : Have to decide which of these is used. --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC)
airpumpHeat This means air-driven heat pumps installed in individual homes and run based on ambient temperature. The efficiency of air heat pump reduces with very cold weather. We assume that the heat pump will be used for cooling as well, if it is installed. (We assume that cooling is not used in apartments without heat pump; cooling is otherwise only used in offices etc). Weather, Hour, maybe Temperature. --# : Should we have index for day/night so that daily storage of heat/cool can be assessed? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC)
energyProduction Helsinki energy production Energy production based on need: basically, we need to know a) what power plants exist, b) what fuels they use and what (heat, power or both) they produce, c) what emissions they produce, d) what is their maximum capacity, e) at what demand level are they turned on.
emissions (from the model) (emissions in mass per time) Emissions of energy production (ton/a). Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area
energyBalance (from the model; see above)
fuelShares Energy balance in Helsinki[2] Tells how much of fuel is used for a certain neating energy need. --# : Should this be on page Energy balance in Helsinki or, like in Kuopio and Basel, a separate table? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC)

--# : Use shares of different fuels. Currently this data is on page Emission factors for burning processes Table Fuel use in different heating types. However, this is clearly case-specific data and should be on a case-specific page. This should be done retrospectively to Kuopio and Basel as well. --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC)

Fuel_type.
emissionFactors Emission factors for burning processes # |This work should be carefully read. It may affect conclusions.|--Jouni (talk) 13:27, 20 March 2014 (EET) Exposure_agent, Emission_height.
exposure is in ug/m3 in ambient air average concentration. Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland
emissions (from the model; see above) is in ton /a Time, City_area, Exposure_agent, Emission_height.
iF (generic data but depends on population density, emission height etc) Intake fractions of PM. conc (g /m3) * pop (#) * BR (m3 /s) / emis (g /s) <=> conc = emis * iF / BR / pop # conc is the exposure

⇤# : This is NOT the right page, but there are some pages such as Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland that should be merged. --Jouni (talk) 15:45, 17 May 2015 (UTC) ⇤# : Rather use iFs based on Piltti? --Jouni (talk) 12:22, 24 May 2015 (UTC)

    • Fate and dispersion: is embedded in intake fractions and is not separately needed. Rename?
    • Time use and activity: not explicitly needed? Remove? With transport it would make a difference.
 Emission_height, Pollutant, Area
population Population of Helsinki metropolitan area Amount of population exposed. Data from Statistics Finland? Time, Area, Age, Sex
ambientTemperature: Weather in Helsinki (also contains solar radiation and wind patterns) Ambient temperatures. --# : We actually need hourly temperatures. How do we manage this in the model? Temperatures should match indices Sun, Wind, Hour, and Month. --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC)
Health impact assessment
exposure (see above)
Disease risk Incidences of diseases of interest. --# : What if prevalence values would be more useful? --Jouni (talk) 17:27, 24 May 2015 (UTC) Age, Sex, Response
ERF Exposure-response function Exposure-response functions of all relevant exposure agents
Burden of disease in Finland--# : Is this relevant when we have the Disease risk -page? --Heta (talk) 07:55, 16 May 2015 (UTC)
Other human health effects, indoor environment, and well-being is not probably handled here? Remove or keep as an important placeholder?
Costs: Where do we get this? From Vuosaari YVA? From [1]? Costs of activities (energy production mainly) but also health impacts. Time

Analyses

  • Cost-benefit analysis of different options. Costs considered: capital and operational costs of energy production, climate costs (CO2e emissions converted to euros), health (DALYs converted to euros).
  • Total capacity availability and feasibility (applies especially to decentralised option).
  • Temporal heat and power demand and supply (hourly resolution).

Indices

  • Temporal: Month (non-marginal), Hour (non-marginal), Year (2015, 2025, 2040, 2060)
  • Temperature (Very cold (< -20 C), Cold (-20- -5 C), Cool (-5 - 5 C), Mild (5 - 14 C), Warm (15 - 23 C; neither heating nor cooling need in residences), Hot (> 24 C; cooling need)
  • Decisions (options 1-7)
  • Stakeholder (Citizen, City, Helen, Finland)
  • Spatial: City area (summed up after energy need)
  • Health: Disease (any disease that is linked to Exposure agents emitted)
  • Emission, exposure: Exposure agent (any agent that is emitted by energy production)
  • Energy production: Burner, Fuel, Heating.
  • Buildings: Building [use type], Heating, Constructed, City area, Renovation, Efficiency.

Calculations

See also

Helsinki energy decision 2015
In English
Assessment Main page | Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data Building stock in Helsinki | Helsinki energy production | Helsinki energy consumption | Energy use of buildings | Emission factors for burning processes | Prices of fuels in heat production | External cost
Models Building model | Energy balance | Health impact assessment | Economic impacts
Related assessments Climate change policies in Helsinki | Climate change policies and health in Kuopio | Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja | Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

Things to memorize

Units needed:

  • Work, energy, työ: joule J = Nm. 1 J = work needed to move an object by 1 m using a force of 1 N.
    • 1 kWh kilowatt-hour = 1000 W * 1 hour = 1000 W * 3600 s = 3.6 MJ
  • Force, voima: Newton N. E.g. the gravity force of 1 kg object is 9.8 N
  • Power, teho: J/s = W (watt) Note that power also means electricity.

Useful pieces of data.

  • To heat 1 kg of water from 0 to 100 C takes 420 kJ = 0.42 MJ = 0.12 kWh.
  • To boil 1 kg of water to vapor takes 2300 kJ = 2.3 MJ
  • Coal contains ca. 40 MJ/kg
  • Wood contains ca. 17 MJ/kg
  • Wood chips contain ca 7 MJ/kg (because of moisture)
  • Fine particles kill 1800 people/a in Finland.
  • When you burn 1 kg of coal, you get 3.7 kg of CO2.
  • A typical industial-size wind mill produces max 3 MW of electricity
  • A large power-plant produces 200-1500 MW of electricity.


Prefixes:

  • µ micro 10-6 0.000001
  • m milli 10-3 0.001
  • 1
  • k kilo 103 1000
  • M mega 106 1000000
  • G giga 109 1000000000
  • T tera 1012 1000000000000
  • P peta 1015 1000000000000000

Keywords

Energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, fossil energy, wood pellets, power plants, district heating, decentralised energy production, centralised energy production, cost-effectiveness

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Halme, Minna; Hukkinen, Janne; Korppi-Tommola, Jouko; Linnanen, Lassi; Liski, Matti; Lovio, Raimo; Lund, Peter; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Nokso-Koivisto, Oskari; Partanen, Jarmo; Wilenius, Markku. Kasvua ja työllisyyttä uudella energiapolitiikalla. Jyväskylän yliopiston julkaisuja 2014. [1]
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Jáchym Judl, Sirkka Koskela, Timo Korpela, Niko Karvosenoja, Anna Häyrinen, Jari Rantsi. Net environmental impacts of low-share wood pellet co-combustion in an existing coal-fired CHP (combined heat and power) production in Helsinki, Finland. Energy 77 (2014) 844-851. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.068
  3. ↑ Sanni Väisänen: Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat — Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology

Related files

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