Difference between revisions of "Disease burden of air pollution"

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(placefolder based on Lelieveld et al abstract)
 
(→‎Answer: Lelieveld and IHME GBD data was put to t2b)
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== Answer ==
 
== Answer ==
  
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In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
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=== Results ===
  
−
For details, see Lelieveld et al, Nature 2015.<ref name="lelieveld">Lelieveld J, Evans JS, Fnais M, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature. 2015 Sep 17;525(7569):367-71. {{doi|10.1038/nature15371}} [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26381985].</ref>
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<t2b name="Attributable deaths due to air pollution" index="Country,Study" locations="IHME GBD 2010,Lelieveld et al 2015" unit="#deaths/a">
 +
Global|5410949|3297000
 +
China|1594207|1357000
 +
India|1356579|645000
 +
Pakistan|151882|111000
 +
Bangladesh|148330|92000
 +
Nigeria|94118|89000
 +
Russia|119037|67000
 +
United States|98529|55000
 +
Indonesia|167863|52000
 +
Ukraine|51280|51000
 +
Vietnam|65331|44000
 +
Egypt|37076|35000
 +
Germany|41677|34000
 +
Turkey|28586|32000
 +
Iran|19814|26000
 +
Japan|60971|25000
 +
Poland|23846|15000
 +
Ghana|17535|9000
 +
Brazil|57176|<9000
 +
Mexico|25538|<9000
 +
South Africa|24423|<9000
 +
Kenya|17250|<9000
 +
Kazakhstan|13598|<9000
 +
Angola|13182|<9000
 +
Argentina|9972|<9000
 +
Peru|8790|<9000
 +
Cuba|2929|<9000
 +
Australia|1418|<9000
 +
Fiji|466|<9000
 +
</t2b>
  
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=== Results ===
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Lelieveld et al 2015<ref name="lelieveld"/>,
 +
Global burden of disease 2010 by IHME Institute<ref name="gbd2010">Lim et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet Volume 380, No. 9859, p2224–2260, 15 December 2012. {{doi|10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8}} [http://ihmeuw.org/3sgh]</ref>
  
 
=== Conclusions ===
 
=== Conclusions ===
 +
 +
In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
 +
 +
For details, see Lelieveld et al, Nature 2015.<ref name="lelieveld">Lelieveld J, Evans JS, Fnais M, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature. 2015 Sep 17;525(7569):367-71. {{doi|10.1038/nature15371}} [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26381985].</ref>
  
 
== Rationale ==
 
== Rationale ==

Revision as of 10:05, 1 April 2016

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Main message:
Question:

What is the disease burden of fine particles globally?

Note! This assessment was not performed in Opasnet. This is just a page to reflect the methods, results, and conclusions of the original article[1]. Also, this page is a place for discussions about the methods and results of the assessment.

Answer:

Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.


Scope

Question

What is the disease burden of fine particles globally?

Intended use and users

Participants

Boundaries

Decisions and scenarios

Timing

Answer

Results

Attributable deaths due to air pollution(#deaths/a)
ObsCountryIHME GBD 2010Lelieveld et al 2015
1Global54109493297000
2China15942071357000
3India1356579645000
4Pakistan151882111000
5Bangladesh14833092000
6Nigeria9411889000
7Russia11903767000
8United States9852955000
9Indonesia16786352000
10Ukraine5128051000
11Vietnam6533144000
12Egypt3707635000
13Germany4167734000
14Turkey2858632000
15Iran1981426000
16Japan6097125000
17Poland2384615000
18Ghana175359000
19Brazil57176<9000
20Mexico25538<9000
21South Africa24423<9000
22Kenya17250<9000
23Kazakhstan13598<9000
24Angola13182<9000
25Argentina9972<9000
26Peru8790<9000
27Cuba2929<9000
28Australia1418<9000
29Fiji466<9000

Lelieveld et al 2015[1], Global burden of disease 2010 by IHME Institute[2]

Conclusions

In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

For details, see Lelieveld et al, Nature 2015.[1]

Rationale

Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments.

See also


Keywords

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Lelieveld J, Evans JS, Fnais M, Giannadaki D, Pozzer A. The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale. Nature. 2015 Sep 17;525(7569):367-71. doi:10.1038/nature15371 [1].
  2. ↑ Lim et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet Volume 380, No. 9859, p2224–2260, 15 December 2012. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8 [2]

Related files

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