ERF of ambient temperature on mortality

This page is a variable. The page identifier is Op_en4597
Moderator:Teemu R (see all)
Give your opinion to the peer rating of the content of this page. {{ #opasnet_rater: }}
Upload data Show results

Scope

What is the exposure-response function (ERF) of ambient temperature on mortality in Europe measured as % difference in summer (April-September) mortality per degree (Max Apparent Temperature) above the heat threshold (95% confidence intervals).

Definition

Data

Table

	Mediterranean pooled estimate	North-continental pooled estimate
Heat threshold	29.4 (25.7-32.4)	23.3 (22.5-24.0)
Age	Natural mortality
15-64	0.92 (-1.92, 3.13)	1.31 (-0.94. 3.72)
65-74	2.13 (-0.42, 4.74)	1.65 (-0.5, 3.87)
75+	4.22 (1.33, 7.20)	2.07 (0.24, 3.89)
All ages	3.12 (0.60, 5.72)	1.84 (0.06, 3.64)
Age	Cardiovascular mortality
15-64	0.57 (-2.47 to 3.83)	1.04 (-2.20 to 4.92)
65-74	1.92 (-1.49 to 5.35)	1.50 (1.12 to 4.62)
75+	4.66 (1.13 to 8.18)	2.55 (0.24 to 5.51)
All ages	3.70 (0.36 to 7.04)	2.44 (0.09 to 5.32)
Age	Respiratory mortality
15-64	1.54 (-3.68 to 7.22)	3.02 (-1.55 to 7.42)
65-74	3.37 (-1.46 to 8.22)	3.90 (-0.16 to 8.92)
75+	8.10 (3.24 to 13.37)	6.62 (3.04 to 11.42))
All ages	6.71 (2.43 to 11.26)	6.10 (2.46 to 11.08)

• Following WP3.7-work and WP4.3-screening, DRF will be based on the PHEWE project, which investigated the acute health effects of weather in 15 European cities and provided both pooled estimates (Mediterranean region and North-Continental region) of the impact of heat on mortality (Michelozzi et al. 2007; Baccini et al. 2008). DRFs are based on a linear threshold model. Heat exposure is defined as follows: °C Daily maximum Apparent Temperature over threshold temperature, warm season (April-September).
• DRF available for: mortality due to natural causes, CVD mortality and RESP morality.
• Assumption: Threshold and the DRF differ for the Mediterranean region and the North-continental region; we therefore assume that the EU-27 can be divided into two larger regions with different DRF.
• Assumption: Temperatures above thresholds will only occur in warm season (April-September)
• Assumption: DRF for mortality due to natural causes can be applied to total mortality

Unit

%/°C

Result

Show results