ERF of ambient temperature on mortality
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Scope
Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.
Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable
- Cause of death
- Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
- Age of exposed population
Definition
Data
PHEWE-project [1]
Meta-analytical percent changes in daily mortality by age-group with 1oC increase in daily maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities
| Mediterranean pooled estimate | North-continental pooled estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| Heat threshold | 29.4 (25.7-32.4) | 23.3 (22.5-24.0) |
| Age | Natural mortality | |
| 15-64 | 0.92 (-1.92, 3.13) | 1.31 (-0.94. 3.72) |
| 65-74 | 2.13 (-0.42, 4.74) | 1.65 (-0.5, 3.87) |
| 75+ | 4.22 (1.33, 7.20) | 2.07 (0.24, 3.89) |
| All ages | 3.12 (0.60, 5.72) | 1.84 (0.06, 3.64) |
| Age | Cardiovascular mortality | |
| 15-64 | 0.57 (-2.47 to 3.83) | 1.04 (-2.20 to 4.92) |
| 65-74 | 1.92 (-1.49 to 5.35) | 1.50 (1.12 to 4.62) |
| 75+ | 4.66 (1.13 to 8.18) | 2.55 (0.24 to 5.51) |
| All ages | 3.70 (0.36 to 7.04) | 2.44 (0.09 to 5.32) |
| Age | Respiratory mortality | |
| 15-64 | 1.54 (-3.68 to 7.22) | 3.02 (-1.55 to 7.42) |
| 65-74 | 3.37 (-1.46 to 8.22) | 3.90 (-0.16 to 8.92) |
| 75+ | 8.10 (3.24 to 13.37) | 6.62 (3.04 to 11.42)) |
| All ages | 6.71 (2.43 to 11.26) | 6.10 (2.46 to 11.08) |
- Meta-analytical estimates are based on studies in the following cities:
- Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
- North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
- Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
- Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)
INTARESE/HEIMTSA Common case study related issues:
- Following WP3.7-work and WP4.3-screening, DRF will be based on the PHEWE project, which investigated the acute health effects of weather in 15 European cities and provided both pooled estimates (Mediterranean region and North-Continental region) of the impact of heat on mortality (Michelozzi et al. 2007; Baccini et al. 2008). DRFs are based on a linear threshold model. Heat exposure is defined as follows: °C Daily maximum Apparent Temperature over threshold temperature, warm season (April-September).
- Assumption: Threshold and the DRF differ for the Mediterranean region and the North-continental region; we therefore assume that the EU-27 can be divided into two larger regions with different DRF.
- Assumption: Temperatures above thresholds will only occur in warm season (April-September)
- Assumption: DRF for mortality due to natural causes can be applied to total mortality
Unit
%/°C
Result
See also
References
- ↑ Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.
