Assessments - science-based decision support

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Assessments - science-based decision support is a lecture about assessments as processes and their products that on the one hand are determined by the practical needs of societal decision making, and on the other hand are bounded by the scientific quest for truth. The lecture discusses how these sometimes apparently conflicting goals influence the making and outcomes of assessments.

Scope

Purpose: To describe how the practical needs of societal decision making should be taken account of in assessment and how these needs can be addressed without compromising the scientific quality of the process and its outcomes.

Intended audience: Researchers (especially at doctoral student level) in any field of science (mainly natural, not social scientists).

Duration: 1.5 h + 1.5 h

Definition

• Introductory presentations of concepts
• Real-world example case
• Discussions to organize available information about the example case

Result

Part I:

Introduction to concepts:

• Societal needs
• Societal decision makers
• Societal actions
• Indicators: issues of interest
• What is required in order to know what should be done in order to improve the state of issue of interest?
  • Decision → factor → outcome
• Transforming need into an assessment problem → assessment scope - what is needed to know, why, who will use the knowledge (why will they acquire the knowledge)?
  • purpose, intended users,
• Assessment is about finding solutions to the assessment problem
  • probably also as much finding out what is not known in order to solve the problem (consider knowledge management vs. ignorance management)

Example-based discussion:

• what need is addressed, whose need is it?
• who is interested, who is responsible, who is in position to do something about it, who is affected either by the state of affairs or possible actions about them?
• what could be done about it, do we know what should be done about it?
• what is known or not known?
• are there conflicts of interest or differences of perception regarding the needs or possible actions about them?
• if increased understanding about the issue is obtainable, whose level of understanding, and about which aspects of the issue, should be primarily targeted (e.g. scientists, policy-makers, some specific stakeholder groups, common citizens)?
• what are actual specific issues of interest to look at?
• Try to formulate a description of the assessment purpose, boundaries and intended users and sum the assessment problem into a question or a set of questions

Part II:

Introduction to concepts:

• Assessments as collections of variables
• Assessments as answers to practical questions
• Assessments as causal networks
• Information structure of assessment objects - scope, definition, result
  • Definition describes the way the assessment problem is attempted to solve
    • decision variables, indicators, value variables, other variables → causal network
    • analyses: e.g. (decision) optimization, conditioning, importance and value of information analysis
• Bayes belief nets - optimization
• Value of information - need for and targeting of extra work?
• Scenarios - conditioning the causal network
• making conclusions and conveying/converging them to use
• appraisal
• indices

Example-based discussion: