Difference between revisions of "Common Case Study"

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(EU funded projects in the Cordis database added)
(adjusted for the whole MCS; links to new variables added)
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[[heande:Mega Case Study]]
 
[[heande:Mega Case Study]]
 +
[[Category:Mega case study]]
 
{{assessment|moderator = [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]}}
 
{{assessment|moderator = [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]}}
−
'''Mega case study''' is an assessment with the focus on climate change but several different aspects looked at the same time.
+
'''Mega case study''' is a European-wide ([[EU-30]]) assessment with the focus on climate change but several different aspects looked at the same time.
−
 
 
−
[[image:Agriculature mega case study.png]]
 
  
 
==Scope==
 
==Scope==
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===Purpose===
 
===Purpose===
  
−
What are the health effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Europe? Both direct effects of policies and indirect effects of climate change are included.
+
What are the health effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Europe ([[EU-30]])? Both effects of climate policies and effects of climate change are included.
 +
 
 +
===Boundaries===
 +
 
 +
* Temporal: Current situation to 2050. Special emphasis on years 2020, 2030, 2050.
 +
* Spatial: [[EU-30]]
 +
* Sectors: Energy supply and consumption with special emphasis on building heating/cooling, electricity use, and road transport; agriculture; water supply.
 +
* Endpoints: Application costs, health impacts, health care costs, greenhouse gas emissions.
  
 
===Scenarios===
 
===Scenarios===
  
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* IPCC A1F1 scenario as the reference scenario
+
Global [[IPCC scenarios]]:
−
* IPCC ?? scenario most likely to lead to only +2 °C change in temperature
+
* Business-as-usual (BAU): IPCC A1B scenario as the reference scenario
 +
* Policy scenario: IPCC B1 scenario most likely to lead to only +2 °C change in temperature
 +
 
 +
[[European climate scenarios]]
 +
* Business-as-usual scenario: [[NEEDS]] reference scenario + [[GAINS]] reference scenario
 +
* Policy scenario: [[NEEDS]] 450 ppm climate protection scenario + [[GAINS]] policy scenario
 +
 
 +
Both sets of scenarios are looked at separately, so in the analysis we will get four sets of results. In practice the first two are of the main interest.
 +
# Global BAU + European BAU
 +
# Global BAU + European policy scenario
 +
# Global policy scenario + European BAU
 +
# Global policy scenario + European policy scenario.
  
 
===Intended users===
 
===Intended users===
 +
 +
* Policy-makers in the Copenhagen (Mexico City) process.
 +
* National policy-makers.
  
 
===Participants===
 
===Participants===
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* [[Intarese]]
 
* [[Intarese]]
 
* [[Heimtsa]]
 
* [[Heimtsa]]
 +
* This is an [[open assessment]]. Anyone is welcome to participate.
  
 
==Definition==
 
==Definition==
  
−
* [[:Image:Agriculture mega case study.ANA|Agriculture mega case study.ANA]] model file for agriculture module ([[Analytica]] file).
+
===Energy, buildings, and transport sub-assessment===
 +
 
 +
Decision variables:
 +
[[Road transport policies in Europe]] |
 +
[[Building policies in Europe]] |
 +
[[Energy efficiency policies on domestic appliances in Europe]] |
 +
[[Energy supply policies in Europe]] |
  
−
===Indicators===
+
Indicators:
 +
[[Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe]] |
 +
[[Burden of disease in Europe]] |
 +
[[Costs of climate change policies in Europe]] |
  
−
* [[Neurodevelopmental effect of nitrate]]
+
Other variables / pollutants:
−
* [[Cancer due to pesticides in Europe]]
+
[[Air pollutant emissions in Europe]] |
−
* [[Gastric infections in Europe]]
+
[[Air pollutant exposures in Europe]] |
 +
[[ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population]] |
 +
[[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]] |
 +
[[ERF for heat exposure and morbidity]]
  
−
===Decisions===
+
Other variables / population:
 +
[[Cardiovascular diseases in Europe]] |
 +
[[Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe]] |
 +
[[Cardiovascular morbidity/mortality]] *|
 +
[[Respiratory diseases in Europe]] |
 +
[[Respiratory morbidity/mortality]] *|
 +
[[Cancer]] *|
 +
[[Cancer in Europe]] |
 +
[[Variable:Total mortality in the Western Europe]] *|
 +
[[WHO mortality data]] |
 +
[[Morbidity data for Europe]] |
 +
[[Duration of morbidity]] |
 +
[[Exposure scaling factors in Europe]] |
 +
[[Population of Europe]] |
 +
[[DALY weights]]
  
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* [[Pesticide regulation in Europe]]
+
<nowiki>*</nowiki> These variables need renaming and complete re-editing.
−
* [[Irrigation practices of agricultural land in Europe]]
 
−
* [[Biofuel production in Europe]]
 
−
* [[Meat consumption in Europe]]
 
  
−
===Other variables===
+
===Agriculture sub-assessment===
  
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* [[Population of Europe]]
+
[[image:Agriculature mega case study.png|thumb]]
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* [[Number of farm animals in Europe]]
+
 
−
* [[Fertilizer use in Europe]]
+
[[:Image:Agriculture mega case study.ANA|Agriculture mega case study.ANA]] model file for agriculture module ([[Analytica]] file).
−
* [[Pesticide use in Europe]]
+
 
−
* [[Pesticide exposure in Europe]]
+
Indicators:
−
* [[ERF of pesticides on cancer]]
+
[[Neurodevelopmental effect of nitrate]] |
−
* [[Livestock wastes in Europe]]
+
[[Cancer due to pesticides in Europe]] |
−
* [[Nitrate leaching and run-off in Europe]]
+
[[Gastric infections in Europe]]
−
* [[Livestock waste leaching and run-off in Europe]]
+
 
 +
Decisions:
 +
[[Pesticide regulation in Europe]] |
 +
[[Irrigation practices of agricultural land in Europe]] |
 +
[[Biofuel production in Europe]] |
 +
[[Meat consumption in Europe]]
 +
 
 +
Other variables:
 +
[[Population of Europe]] |
 +
[[Number of farm animals in Europe]] |
 +
[[Fertilizer use in Europe]] |
 +
[[Pesticide use in Europe]] |
 +
[[Pesticide exposure in Europe]] |
 +
[[ERF of pesticides on cancer]] |
 +
[[Livestock wastes in Europe]] |
 +
[[Nitrate leaching and run-off in Europe]] |
 +
[[Livestock waste leaching and run-off in Europe]] |
 +
 
 +
===Analyses===
 +
 
 +
* Cost-benefit analysis
 +
* [[Value of information analysis]]
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
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* [http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/ambition/evidence/health Act on Copenhagen]
 
* [http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/ambition/evidence/health Act on Copenhagen]
 
* [http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/content/en/embeds/flash/4-degrees-large-map-final Impact of global temperature rise]
 
* [http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/content/en/embeds/flash/4-degrees-large-map-final Impact of global temperature rise]
−
 
+
* EU funded projects from Cordis database: [http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=OFFR_O_SOC_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=143&CAT=OFFR&QUERY=012565604f71:38d3:3832eff0&RCN=1810 Predicting the socio-economic impact of climate change]
−
 
 
−
;EU funded projects from Cordis database
 
−
* [http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=OFFR_O_SOC_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=143&CAT=OFFR&QUERY=012565604f71:38d3:3832eff0&RCN=1810 Predicting the socio-economic impact of climate change]
 
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
  
 
<references/>
 
<references/>

Revision as of 14:04, 26 February 2010



Mega case study is a European-wide (EU-30) assessment with the focus on climate change but several different aspects looked at the same time.

Scope

Purpose

What are the health effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Europe (EU-30)? Both effects of climate policies and effects of climate change are included.

Boundaries

  • Temporal: Current situation to 2050. Special emphasis on years 2020, 2030, 2050.
  • Spatial: EU-30
  • Sectors: Energy supply and consumption with special emphasis on building heating/cooling, electricity use, and road transport; agriculture; water supply.
  • Endpoints: Application costs, health impacts, health care costs, greenhouse gas emissions.

Scenarios

Global IPCC scenarios:

  • Business-as-usual (BAU): IPCC A1B scenario as the reference scenario
  • Policy scenario: IPCC B1 scenario most likely to lead to only +2 °C change in temperature

European climate scenarios

  • Business-as-usual scenario: NEEDS reference scenario + GAINS reference scenario
  • Policy scenario: NEEDS 450 ppm climate protection scenario + GAINS policy scenario

Both sets of scenarios are looked at separately, so in the analysis we will get four sets of results. In practice the first two are of the main interest.

  1. Global BAU + European BAU
  2. Global BAU + European policy scenario
  3. Global policy scenario + European BAU
  4. Global policy scenario + European policy scenario.

Intended users

  • Policy-makers in the Copenhagen (Mexico City) process.
  • National policy-makers.

Participants

Definition

Energy, buildings, and transport sub-assessment

Decision variables: Road transport policies in Europe | Building policies in Europe | Energy efficiency policies on domestic appliances in Europe | Energy supply policies in Europe |

Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe | Burden of disease in Europe | Costs of climate change policies in Europe |

Other variables / pollutants: Air pollutant emissions in Europe | Air pollutant exposures in Europe | ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population | ERF for heat exposure and mortality | ERF for heat exposure and morbidity

Other variables / population: Cardiovascular diseases in Europe | Cardiovascular mortality in the Western Europe | Cardiovascular morbidity/mortality *| Respiratory diseases in Europe | Respiratory morbidity/mortality *| Cancer *| Cancer in Europe | Variable:Total mortality in the Western Europe *| WHO mortality data | Morbidity data for Europe | Duration of morbidity | Exposure scaling factors in Europe | Population of Europe | DALY weights

* These variables need renaming and complete re-editing.

Agriculture sub-assessment

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Agriculture mega case study.ANA model file for agriculture module (Analytica file).

Indicators: Neurodevelopmental effect of nitrate | Cancer due to pesticides in Europe | Gastric infections in Europe

Decisions: Pesticide regulation in Europe | Irrigation practices of agricultural land in Europe | Biofuel production in Europe | Meat consumption in Europe

Other variables: Population of Europe | Number of farm animals in Europe | Fertilizer use in Europe | Pesticide use in Europe | Pesticide exposure in Europe | ERF of pesticides on cancer | Livestock wastes in Europe | Nitrate leaching and run-off in Europe | Livestock waste leaching and run-off in Europe |

Analyses

See also

References

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