Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

Latest revision as of 12:41, 5 December 2012

This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013.

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Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
- utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
- avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.

Course details

Name: Decision analysis and risk management
Abbreviation: DARM
ECTS-credits: 6
Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
Registration for the Course: Wossikka

Teaching / Learning Methods

Lectures and discussions 60 h
Calculation exercises 9 h
Independent assessment study
- Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
- Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

The course grade consists of:

Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
Case study exercise (2/3)
Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)

Classroom exercise scoring

Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
Exercise 4: max. score 5 points

Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).

Case study exercise scoring

Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points

In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.

Course grading

The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.

Course grade	Total score
0	<20
1	21-25
2	26-30
3	31-35
4	36-40
5	41-45

The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.

Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the corresponding password protected course page in Heande.

Partial accomplishments

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:

Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.

Content and schedule

**Schedule and contents of the course.**
Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.

Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.

Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Date	Time	Lecturer	Lecture room	Topics	Material
28.2.	10-13	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S22	Introduction to the course introduction to decision analysis: video , slides introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S31	Introduction to risk management Conventional perspectives to RM: video, slides Open risk management: video, slides	Framework for environmental health risk management An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework Risk governance deficits - Policy brief State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)
3.3.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	S23	Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard independent exploration Beginning of the pandemic preparedness in Finland and elsewhere mini-presentations and discussion summary
4.3.	9-12	Mikko, Marko	MC9	Introduction to using Opasnet Introduction to Opasnet Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities Exercises user accounts DA study plan page RM report page browsing and searching commenting and discussing	Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet Opasnet Help:Contents
4.3.	13-16	Jouni, Marko	S24	Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides Subjective probability Practical exercise Bayesian rule video Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)	Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics Lindley, a backup file
8.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Introduction to probability theory. video slides Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test. Decision analysis (continued). slides Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
9.3.	9-12	Jouni	S22	Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets. Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
10.3.	9-12	Marko	S24	Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides Computer modeling video Why? Approximation When data is not available Monte Carlo simulation When and why to use? Common uncertainty distributions video Normal distribution is not the only option Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
11.3.	8-11	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise: slides Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio	Pope et al. 2002
16.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko	S22	Probabilistic models video slides	Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model
17.3.	9-12	Jouni, Marko	MC4	Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R Open assessment quiz, heande:Calibration of a group Health impacts of PM in Kuopio Expert judgement no video slides	Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation
18.3.	13-16	Jouni	S24	Overall view of different models video, slides Why do we do modelling? Producing result from rationale. Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates. Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations. Other relations (neural networks). First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
21.3.	11-14	Jouni, Marko, Mikko	S24	Decision making under uncertainty Why decision analysis?: video, Slides Sensitivity analysis: Slides Value of information: video, Slides	Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004) Value of information Value of information analysis
22.3.	9-12	Mikko, Marko, Jouni	S24	Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Assessment performance: video, Slides quality assurance/quality control uncertainty model performance information in use → heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments
25.3.	9-12	Marko	MC9	Calculation exercise. Link to exercise page
29.3.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S4069	Full drafts of DA study plans. Brief info about updated course evaluation principles A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3. DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
30.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S24	Risk management: State-of-the-art? lecture: slides, video perspectives to assessment and management tendencies in EHA and EHRM What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction discussion: assessment and management in the swine flu case questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?	heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment Decision Making for the Environment Risk Assessment in the Federal Government Science and Decisions Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment Understanding Risk (free online version)
31.3.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	S23	Risk management: a social learning perspective lecture: slides, video participation in assessment and management dimensions of openness assessments as collaborative information production projects discussion: role of public in swine flu case RM? dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM	heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment
1.4.	9-12	Mikko, Jouni	9-10: S21 10-12: MC9	Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management lecture: slides collective knowledge creation pragmatism, abduction and trialogical approach a game of questions and answers pragmatic knowledge services from an information society towards a knowledge society exercise (task): Discussion and structured argumentation in Opasnet argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts	Pragmatic knowledge services Argumentation Pragma-dialectics argumentation theory.
7.4.	13-16	Jouni, Mikko	S4069	Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action Lecture: slides video: Mikko, part 1 2 Jouni, part 1 2 Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action hypothesis development and testing discussion shared belief systems inference rules evaluation of page content in Opasnet Discussion Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)	Inference rules Scientific method Falsification Justified true belief Shared belief system
8.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S22	Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides, video Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM? Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases An example of a swine flu DA, video overview model results and analyses conclusions relations to groups' DA study plans What's new about the swine flu case? Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
11.4.	9-12	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar: Presentations of DA study plans by groups focus on the main improvements since 29.3. presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion Presentations of the RM exercises: 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
12.4.	8-11	Jouni, Mikko	S24	Final seminar Presentations of the RM exercises continues 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari

Help and guidance

Topic	Contact
General arrangements	User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content	User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical	User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises	User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.

References

Related files

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Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

Latest revision as of 12:41, 5 December 2012

Contents

Aims of the course

Course details

Lectures

Case study exercise

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments

Content and schedule

Help and guidance

See also

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

Links to information on specific swine flu topics

Keywords

References

Related files

Navigation menu

Personal tools

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In other websites

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013]].
 <big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big>
@@ Line 47: / Line 49: @@
 See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
-Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: [[Decision analysis and risk management - background information]].
+Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
 == Case study exercise ==
@@ Line 57: / Line 58: @@
 == Evaluation ==
-Scale: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)
+=== Whole course (6 ECTS) ===
-'''Evaluation is based on:
+The course grade consists of:
+* Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
 * [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
-* Completion of calculation exercises (1/3)
+* Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
-* Active participation during lectures will be taken into account while deciding final grades
+'''Classroom exercise scoring
+* Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
+* Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
+* Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
+* Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
+Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
+'''Case study exercise scoring
+* Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
+* Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
+In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|case study exercise page]]. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
+'''Course grading
-''For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course: lectures (3 ECTS), case study exercise part 1 (2 ECTS), or case study exercise part 2 (1 ECTS). Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale.
+The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
+{|{{prettytable}}
+! Course grade
+! Total score
+|-----
+| 0
+| <20
+|-----
+| 1
+| 21-25
+|-----
+| 2
+| 26-30
+|-----
+| 3
+| 31-35
+|-----
+| 4
+| 36-40
+|-----
+| 5
+| 41-45
+|}
+The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
+'''Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the [[:heande:Decision analysis and risk management|corresponding password protected course page]] in Heande.
+=== Partial accomplishments ===
+For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
+* Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
+* Case study exercise part 1: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 1: Decision analysis study plan|DA study plan]] (2 ECTS)
+* Case study exercise part 2: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 2: Risk management actions and options report|RM analysis]] (1 ECTS)
+Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
-[[heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 == Content and schedule ==
@@ Line 140: / Line 194: @@
 | '''Jouni''', Marko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''[[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Introduction to probability theory]]''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video]
+| '''Introduction to probability theory''': [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video], [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
 *[[Subjective probability]]
@@ Line 176: / Line 230: @@
 | Marko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/4/42/ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation]'''
+| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
 *Computer modeling [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13220482 video]
 **Why?
@@ Line 193: / Line 247: @@
 | Marko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
-| '''[http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/7/72/Calculation_exercise_Modeling.ppt Calculation exercise]'''.
+| '''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
 *Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
@@ Line 200: / Line 254: @@
 | 16.3.
 | 9-12
-| Jouni
+| '''Jouni''', Marko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 |
 * '''Probabilistic models''' video [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
-* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
 | [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
 |-
 | 17.3.
 | 9-12
-| Jouni
+| '''Jouni''', Marko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=e40d7322-7e1e-44a2-93ef-32e284b65a69&groupId=10128&t=1262952468685 MC4]
 | '''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''
-* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[Calibration of a group]]
+* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
 * [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
-|
+* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' no video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
+| [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
 |-
 | 18.3.
@@ Line 220: / Line 274: @@
 | Jouni
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''Overall view of different models''': [[Producing result from rationale]].
+| '''Overall view of different models''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13397033 video], [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
-*[[:File:Overall view of models.ppt|Overall view of models.ppt]]
+Why do we do modelling?
-*Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
+* [[Producing result from rationale]].
-*Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
+**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
-*Other relations (neural networks).
+**Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
+**Other relations (neural networks).
 '''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
@@ Line 231: / Line 286: @@
 |-
 | 21.3.
-| 9-12
+| 11-14
 | Jouni, Marko, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 | '''Decision making under uncertainty'''
-*[[:File:Evaluating an assessment.ppt|Evaluating an assessment.ppt]]
+* Why decision analysis?: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13473130 video], [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]
-*Uncertainty and it's impact (1h Jouni)
+* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
-*Sensitivity analysis (1h Marko)
+* Value of information: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13489919 video], [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]
-*Value of information (1h Marko)
+|
-*Acceptability
+*[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
-*Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure
+* [[Value of information]]
+* [[Value of information analysis]]
-'''Swine flu story:''' Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
-|
 |-
 | 22.3.
 | 9-12
-| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+| Mikko, Marko, Jouni
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''. [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]].
+| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''.
-*Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko)
+* Assessment performance: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13490379 video], [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
+** quality assurance/quality control
+** uncertainty
+** model performance
+** information in use
+** &rarr; [[:heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments]]
 |
 |-
@@ Line 258: / Line 314: @@
 | 9-12
 | Marko
-| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24], [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
+| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
-| '''VOI calculation exercise. '''
+| '''Calculation exercise. '''
-*Case 1: Weather example:
+*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
-**Two cities, daily temperature data for 1 year
-**Question: what is the VOI to know the daily temperature vs. average temperature
-**Calculations done in excel
-*Case 2: Risk model:
-**calculation of VOI by hand
-**calculation of expected value of perfect X information using Jouni's VOI function
 |
@@ Line 274: / Line 324: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
-| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.''' Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
+| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.'''
-*Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs?
+* Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
-*What should the model do? How should the results be used?
+* A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
-*The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work?
+* DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
-*The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
 |
 |-
@@ Line 285: / Line 334: @@
 | Mikko, Jouni
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''Risk management''' (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+| '''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?
-*Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.
+* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13656373 video]
-*What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM?
+** perspectives to assessment and management
-*Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.
+** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
-*Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
+** What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
-*Developing risk management options.
+** RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
-*Development of risk assessment questions.
+** contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
-*Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
+* discussion:
+** assessment and management in the swine flu case
-'''[[Opasnet]]''' and other web-based decision support systems.
+** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
 |
+* [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
+* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
+* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
+* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
+* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
+* [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
 |-
 | 31.3.
 | 9-12
-| Jouni, Mikko
+| Mikko, Jouni
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
-| '''[[Trialogue]], collective learning'''
+| '''Risk management''': a social learning perspective
-*[[:File:Shared understanding.ppt|Shared understanding.ppt]]
+* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13676880 video]
-*[[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]] and its problems
+** participation in assessment and management
-*[[Inference rules]]: how do we know what we know?
+** dimensions of openness
-*Shared information vs. private information
+** assessments as collaborative information production projects
-*Actions by a group based on shared information
+* discussion:
-*[[Shared belief system]]s
+** role of public in swine flu case RM?
-*Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
+** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
-'''Swine flu story:''' Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
 |
+* [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
 |-
 | 1.4.
 | 9-12
-| Jouni, Mikko
+| Mikko, Jouni
-| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
+|
-| '''[[Inference rules]]. [[Scientific method]]''' as open discussion. [[Falsification]].
+* 9-10: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S21]
-*Do we need pre-peer-review?
+* 10-12: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
+| '''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
+* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
+** collective knowledge creation
+*** ''pragmatism, abduction and [[Trialogue|trialogical approach]]
+*** ''a game of questions and answers
+** pragmatic knowledge services
+** from an information society towards a knowledge society
+* exercise ([[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|task]]):
+** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
+** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
 |
+* [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
+* [[Argumentation]]
+* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
+* [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
 |-
 | 7.4.
 | 13-16
-| Mikko
+| Jouni, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
+| '''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
+* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]] video: Mikko, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13830606 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831230 2] Jouni, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831527 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831967 2]
+** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
+** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
+*** hypothesis development and testing
+*** discussion
+*** shared belief systems
+*** inference rules
+*** evaluation of page content in Opasnet
+* Discussion
+** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
 |
-'''[[Discussion]]''': Lectures of concepts
+* [[Inference rules]]
+* [[Scientific method]]
-*[[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]], [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
+* [[Falsification]]
-*Parts of [[Argumentation]].
+* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
+* [[Shared belief system]]
-Structuring of discussions in practice and theory
-*Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation
-*Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day.
-*Build a structured discussion out of this in groups.
-*Possibly utilise group writing tools?
-'''Swine flu story (autumn 2010)''': Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
-|
 |-
 | 8.4.
 | 9-12
-| Mikko
+| Jouni, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
-| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
+| '''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13848926 video]
+* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
+** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
+** Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
+* An [[Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|example of a swine flu DA]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13849567 video]
+** overview
+** model
+** results and analyses
+** conclusions
+** relations to groups' DA study plans
+* What's new about the swine flu case?
+* Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
+* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
+** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
 |
 |-
@@ Line 353: / Line 435: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
+| '''Final seminar:'''
+* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
+** focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
+** presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
+** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
+* Presentations of the RM exercises:
+** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
+** presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
 |
 |-
@@ Line 360: / Line 449: @@
 | Jouni, Mikko
 | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
-| '''Final seminar''' (cont'd).
+| '''Final seminar'''
+* Presentations of the RM exercises continues
-'''Wrap-up and course feedback.'''
+** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
+** presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari
 |}
@@ Line 409: / Line 499: @@
 *[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1 EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination]
-=== Links to information on specific topics ===
+=== Links to information on specific swine flu topics ===
 ''(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
@@ Line 472: / Line 562: @@
 ==References==
+<references/>
 == Related files  ==
@@ Line 477: / Line 569: @@
 {{mfiles}}
 [[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
+[[Category:Open assessment training]]
+[[Category:DARM exercise]]
+{{eracedu}}