Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

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[[Category:Decision analysis]]
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:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013]].
−
[[Category:Risk management]]
 
−
[[Category:Open assessment]]
 
−
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 
  
−
'''Decison analysis and risk management''' is a university course for Master of Science students in Environmental health risk assessment.
+
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big>
  
−
Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision_analysis_and_risk_management_-_background_information
+
[[Category:Decision_analysis]] [[Category:Risk_management]] [[Category:Open_assessment]] [[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 +
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 +
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
  
−
==Scope==
+
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
  
−
==Definition==
+
== Aims of the course ==
  
 +
* To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
 +
** utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
 +
** avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,
  
−
'''Statistics
+
'''In the course:
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statistics list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferential_statistics list of links to many methods inferential statistics]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_integration how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment a short description of training in subjective probabilities]
 
  
 +
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     
  
−
'''Exposure
+
== Course details ==
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exposure_science only a stub]
 
−
* [http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=20563 EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exposure_assessment some basic concepts of exposure assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomarkers_of_Exposure_Assessment short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_exposure_modeling a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples]
 
−
* [http://www.nature.com/jes/journal/v15/n1/pdf/7500411a.pdf official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary]
 
−
* [http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es00077a001 total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990)]
 
−
* [http://www.epa.gov/ncea/efh/pdfs/efh-chapter02.pdf EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability]
 
  
 +
* Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
 +
* Abbreviation: DARM
 +
* ECTS-credits: 6
 +
* Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
 +
* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
 +
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
 +
* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  Yes
  
−
'''Toxicology
+
'''Contacts
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxicity general terms and concepts of toxicology]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxicology a stub with useful links about toxicology]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_effect_concentration measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probit_model mathematics of probit model; advanced material]
 
−
* [http://potency.berkeley.edu/ the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!]
 
  
 +
* Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the [http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL])          
 +
* Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
 +
* Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
 +
* Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
 +
* Registration for the Course: Wossikka     
  
−
'''Epidemiology and public health
+
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology good description of basic concepts of epidemiology]
+
* Lectures and discussions 60 h
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view)]
+
* Calculation exercises 9 h
 +
* Independent assessment study
 +
** Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
 +
** Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
 +
* Web-Based Learning 30 %
 +
 
 +
== Lectures ==
 +
 
 +
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
 +
 
 +
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
 +
== Case study exercise ==
 +
 
 +
'''For the case study description and instructions, see the [[:Category:DARM exercise|case study exercise page]]'''
 +
 
 +
Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
 +
 
 +
== Evaluation ==
 +
 
 +
=== Whole course (6 ECTS) ===
 +
 
 +
The course grade consists of:
 +
* Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
 +
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
 +
* Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
 +
 
 +
'''Classroom exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
 +
* Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
 +
 
 +
Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
 +
 
 +
'''Case study exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
 +
* Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
 +
 
 +
In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|case study exercise page]]. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
 +
 
 +
'''Course grading
 +
 
 +
The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
 +
 
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Course grade
 +
! Total score
 +
|-----
 +
| 0
 +
| <20
 +
|-----
 +
| 1
 +
| 21-25
 +
|-----
 +
| 2
 +
| 26-30
 +
|-----
 +
| 3
 +
| 31-35
 +
|-----
 +
| 4
 +
| 36-40
 +
|-----
 +
| 5
 +
| 41-45
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
 +
 
 +
'''Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the [[:heande:Decision analysis and risk management|corresponding password protected course page]] in Heande.
 +
 
 +
=== Partial accomplishments ===
 +
 
 +
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
 +
* Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 1: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 1: Decision analysis study plan|DA study plan]] (2 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 2: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 2: Risk management actions and options report|RM analysis]] (1 ECTS)
 +
 
 +
Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
 +
 
 +
== Content and schedule ==
 +
 
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course.'''
 +
* Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
 +
* Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
 +
* Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
 +
 
 +
|-
 +
! Date
 +
! Time
 +
! Lecturer
 +
! Lecture room
 +
! Topics
 +
! Material
 +
|-
 +
| 28.2.
 +
| 10-13
 +
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
| '''Introduction to the course
 +
* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
* introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 video], [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
* Introduction to the swine flu story: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 video], [[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|slides]]
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 3.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=f26f90bb-1dd9-45cb-9b08-10ff419304cb&groupId=10128&t=1255516413730 S31]
 +
| '''Introduction to risk management
 +
* Conventional perspectives to RM: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057097 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
* Open risk management: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057604 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
|
 +
* [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/State_of_the_art_of_environmental_health_assessments State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)]
 +
|-
 +
| 3.3.
 +
| 13-16
 +
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 +
| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/e/ed/Whiteboard_online.jpg whiteboard]
 +
* independent exploration
 +
** Beginning of the pandemic
 +
** preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
 +
* mini-presentations and discussion
 +
* summary
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 4.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| '''Mikko''', Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''
 +
* Introduction to Opasnet
 +
* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
 +
* Exercises
 +
** user accounts
 +
** DA study plan page
 +
** RM report page
 +
** browsing and searching
 +
** commenting and discussing
 +
|
 +
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
 +
* [[Opasnet]]
 +
* [[Help:Contents]]
 +
|-
 +
| 4.3.
 +
| 13-16
 +
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Introduction to probability theory''': [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video], [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
 +
 
 +
*[[Subjective probability]]
 +
*Practical exercise
 +
*Bayesian rule [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13080233 video]
 +
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
 +
 
 +
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
 +
 
 +
[[:heande:File:Lindley Philosophy of Statistics JRSS 200.pdf|Lindley, a backup file]]
 +
|-
 +
| 8.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
| '''Introduction to probability theory.''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13171805 video] [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|slides]]
 +
* Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.
 +
'''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Measures of outcome: [[:en:Utility|Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[:en:Willingness to pay|WTP]]
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 9.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]; sorry, no video
 +
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
 +
*Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
 +
'''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 +
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 10.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Computer modeling [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13220482 video]
 +
**Why?
 +
*Approximation
 +
**When data is not available
 +
*Monte Carlo simulation
 +
**When and why to use?
 +
*Common uncertainty distributions [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13221263 video]
 +
**Normal distribution is not the only option
 +
 
 +
'''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 11.3.
 +
| 8-11
 +
| Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 +
 
 +
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/images/7/7b/Pope_2002.pdf Pope et al. 2002]
 +
|-
 +
| 16.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
|
 +
* '''Probabilistic models''' video [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
 +
| [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
 +
|-
 +
| 17.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=e40d7322-7e1e-44a2-93ef-32e284b65a69&groupId=10128&t=1262952468685 MC4]
 +
| '''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''
 +
* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
 +
* [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
 +
* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' no video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
 +
| [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
 +
|-
 +
| 18.3.
 +
| 13-16
 +
| Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Overall view of different models''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13397033 video], [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
 +
Why do we do modelling?
 +
* [[Producing result from rationale]].
 +
**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
 +
**Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
 +
**Other relations (neural networks).
 +
 
 +
'''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
 +
 
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 21.3.
 +
| 11-14
 +
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''
 +
* Why decision analysis?: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13473130 video], [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]
 +
* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
 +
* Value of information: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13489919 video], [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]
 +
|
 +
*[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
 +
* [[Value of information]]
 +
* [[Value of information analysis]]
 +
|-
 +
| 22.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Marko, Jouni 
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''.
 +
* Assessment performance: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13490379 video], [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
 +
** quality assurance/quality control
 +
** uncertainty
 +
** model performance
 +
** information in use
 +
** &rarr; [[:heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments]]
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 25.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Calculation exercise. '''
 +
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
  
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 29.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 +
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.'''
 +
* Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
 +
* A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
 +
* DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 30.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13656373 video]
 +
** perspectives to assessment and management
 +
** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
 +
** What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
 +
** RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
 +
** contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
 +
* discussion:
 +
** assessment and management in the swine flu case
 +
** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
 +
|
 +
* [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
 +
* [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
 +
|-
 +
| 31.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 +
| '''Risk management''': a social learning perspective
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13676880 video]
 +
** participation in assessment and management
 +
** dimensions of openness
 +
** assessments as collaborative information production projects
 +
* discussion:
 +
** role of public in swine flu case RM?
 +
** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
 +
|
 +
* [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
 +
|-
 +
| 1.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Jouni
 +
|
 +
* 9-10: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S21]
 +
* 10-12: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
** collective knowledge creation
 +
*** ''pragmatism, abduction and [[Trialogue|trialogical approach]]
 +
*** ''a game of questions and answers
 +
** pragmatic knowledge services
 +
** from an information society towards a knowledge society
 +
* exercise ([[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|task]]):
 +
** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
 +
** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
 +
|
 +
* [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
 +
* [[Argumentation]]
 +
* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
 +
* [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
 +
|-
 +
| 7.4.
 +
| 13-16
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 +
| '''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
 +
* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]] video: Mikko, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13830606 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831230 2] Jouni, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831527 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831967 2]
 +
** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
 +
** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
 +
*** hypothesis development and testing
 +
*** discussion
 +
*** shared belief systems
 +
*** inference rules
 +
*** evaluation of page content in Opasnet
 +
* Discussion
 +
** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
 +
|
 +
* [[Inference rules]]
 +
* [[Scientific method]]
 +
* [[Falsification]]
 +
* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
 +
* [[Shared belief system]]
 +
|-
 +
| 8.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
| '''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13848926 video]
 +
* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
 +
** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
 +
** Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
 +
* An [[Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|example of a swine flu DA]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13849567 video]
 +
** overview
 +
** model
 +
** results and analyses
 +
** conclusions
 +
** relations to groups' DA study plans
 +
* What's new about the swine flu case?
 +
* Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
 +
* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
 +
** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 11.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Final seminar:'''
 +
* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
 +
** focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
 +
** presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 12.4.
 +
| 8-11
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Final seminar'''
 +
* Presentations of the RM exercises continues
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari
 +
|}
  
−
'''Risk characterisation
+
== Help and guidance ==
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion a good description of risk aversion with math required]
 
  
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Topic
 +
! Contact
 +
|-----
 +
| General arrangements
 +
| [[User:Jouni]], [[User:Mikko Pohjola]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: content
 +
| [[User:Jouni]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: technical
 +
| [[User:Teemu R]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Calculation exercises
 +
| [[User:Marko]]
 +
|}
  
−
'''Risk management
+
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_Risk something about security risk management; not useful]
 
  
 +
== See also ==
  
−
'''Risk and impact assessment
+
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_assessment overview of RA in different fields]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management a long description of relevant concepts of risk management]
 
−
* [http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_catalogue/catalogue_ics/catalogue_detail_ics.htm?csnumber=44651 ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk a good description of basic concepts of risk]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_Risk_Assessment_software only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_identification only a placeholder of hazard identification]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_impact_assessment a brief description of HIA but lots of links]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000 a short description of a new standard ISO 31000]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_risk_assessment short description of PRA with software links]
 
−
* [http://www.epa.gov/risk/ EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it!]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Object_Oriented_Quality_Management Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear]
 
  
 +
=== Links to additional RM materials ===
  
−
'''Decision analysis and economy
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_1_Risk_Governance__reprinted_version_.pdf IRGC risk governance framework]
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrun description of concept of cost overrun (economy)]
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_rgd_web_final.pdf Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration]
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_misrepresentation strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy]
+
* [http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/volume2/pdf/v2epa.PDF Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making]
 +
* [http://www.irgc.org International Risk Governance Council]
 +
* [http://nap.edu/ The National Academies Press] (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
  
 +
=== General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu) ===
  
−
'''Open assessment
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1v Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)]
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/How_to_use_Open_Assessment_in_research? a general lecture about the utility of open assessment]
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/ah1n1v/perustietoa/pandemia Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)]
−
** [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/8/83/Open_assessment_in_research.ppt presentation file related to the lecture]
+
*[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic]
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessments_-_science-based_decision_support background information about open assessments]
+
*[http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/general_info.htm Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue]
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Variables_-_evolving_interpretations_of_reality background about variables]
+
*[http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599924_eng.pdf Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)]
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Science_necessitates_collaboration background about mass collaboration]
+
*[http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html WHO Pandemic page]
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Evaluating_assessment_performance evaluating assessment performance]
+
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/special_topics/general/general_content_000461.jsp&murl=menus/special_topics/special_topics.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac05801d7bfe&jsenabled=true European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu]
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1 EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination]
  
 +
=== Links to information on specific swine flu topics ===
  
−
'''Miscellaneous
+
''(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Agency_for_Safety_and_Health_at_Work very brief description of EU-OSHA]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Risk_Management Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education?]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assessment this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant]
 
  
−
==Result==
+
'''Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic
 +
*[http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090425/en/index.html],[http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599924_eng.pdf]
  
−
;Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
+
'''Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
−
;ECTS-credits: 6
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=15437],[http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitus/artikkeli/Sikainfluenssa+uhkaa+koulujen+alkua/HS20090714SI1MA01b9h],[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/vimo/sll202009-1894.pdf],[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx],[http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/documents/Report%20McKinsey%20Business%20Plan%20Flu3.pdf],[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_vaccine],[http://www.gsk.com/media/pressreleases/2009/2009_pressrelease_10089.htm],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23508]],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Health+officials+say+WHO+pandemic+pronouncement+does+not+alter+Finland%E2%80%99s+preparations+for+swine+flu/1135246834295]
−
;Abbreviation: DARM     
 
  
−
===CONTENT===
+
'''Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
 +
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/rokotteet/sikainfluenssa_html],[http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/artikkeli/MTV3+Arkkiatri+moittii+sikainfluenssarokotteen+vastustajia/1135250236010]
  
−
;Learning outcomes: The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     
+
'''The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
−
;Content:  
+
*[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/osastot/infe/h1n1_2.pdf],[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/ajankohtaista/?bid=3328],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=21364],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=13307]
−
*Theory of decision analysis.
 
−
*Value of information.
 
−
*Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks.
 
−
*Scientific method, falsification.
 
−
*Pragma-dialectic argumentation theory.
 
−
*Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
 
−
*Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.
 
−
*Developing risk management options.
 
−
*Science-policy interface.     
 
  
−
;Learning material: Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org
+
'''Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland
−
;Degree Programme(s): ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment     
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/thl-client/pdfs/d8b1f8bd-1885-48cd-b924-cc6130f55f42],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1/generalinformation/swinefluvaccination/schedule],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22030],[http://yle.mobi/w/uutiset/yle24/ns-yduu-3-1171969],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=15578]
  
−
===IMPLEMENTATION===
+
'''Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
 +
*[http://euro-med.dk/?p=13428],[http://blog.frequencyfoundation.com/2010/01/who-refuses-to-name-members-of-secret.html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/yhd/tiedotteet/tiedote_091024_html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html]
  
−
;Time: Spring 2011     
+
'''Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/medicines/human/medicines/000832/human_med_000965.jsp&murl=menus/medicines/medicines.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058001d125],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_All_Authorised_presentations/human/000832/WC500038123.pdf],[http://www.drugdevelopment-technology.com/projects/pandemrix/],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Summary_for_the_public/human/000832/WC500038122.pdf]
  
−
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
+
'''Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
−
* Lectures 36 h
+
*[http://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/topics/influenza/pandemic/h1n1_safety_assessing/narcolepsy_february2011/en/index.html]
−
* Tutorial 0 h
+
 
−
* One-to-One Teaching 0 h
+
'''Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
−
* Group Work 30 h
+
*[http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2010/09/eu_agency_no_link_between_pandemrix_and_narcolepsy_2006172.html],[http://www.mediuutiset.fi/uutisarkisto/article488794.ece]
−
* Independent Study 96 h
+
 
−
* Web-Based Learning 30 %
+
'''Halting of vaccination campaign
 +
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22930 THL],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/H1N1+vaccinations+suspended+over+narcolepsy+scare/1135259606164]
 +
 
 +
'''THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
 +
*[http://www.thl.fi/thl-client/pdfs/f890b9f3-9922-4efe-889b-157fe2e03aa4]
 +
 
 +
'''Searching for the guilty
 +
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html],[http://www.laakarilehti.fi/uutinen.html?opcode=show/news_id=10005/type=1],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Ministry+official+defends+decision+to+order+swine+flu+vaccine/1135259622342]
 +
 
 +
'''EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1]
 +
 
 +
'''Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere
 +
*[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/tutkimus-_ja_seurantakohteet/influenssa/influenssan_seuranta/#navi0],[http://www.ktl.fi/ttr/gen/rpt/h1n1.pdf],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23692]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
Background information about other '''Decision analysis and risk management''' study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: [[Decision analysis and risk management - background information]]
 +
 
 +
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
 +
 
 +
==Keywords==
  
−
;Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods: Group work is in computer class.     
+
Risk assessment.  
−
;Teaching Languages: English
+
Decision analysis.
−
;Additional Information on Languages
+
Bayesian theory.
−
; Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): YES
+
Open assessment.
 +
Risk management.
 +
Societal decision making.     
  
−
===ASSESSMENT===
+
==References==
−
;Assessment is Based on:
 
−
* Written Examination
 
−
* Project
 
−
;Additional Information: The project will be a practical participation in a risk assessment in Opasnet.          
 
  
−
;Assessment: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)
+
<references/>
  
−
;Additional Information
+
== Related files  ==
−
     
 
−
; Prerequisites
 
−
     
 
  
−
===CONTACTS===
+
{{mfiles}}
−
; Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)          
+
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
−
; Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
+
[[Category:Open assessment training]]
−
; Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
+
[[Category:DARM exercise]]
−
; Contact Persons: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
 
−
; Registration for the Course: Wossikka     
 
  
−
===FURTHER INFORMATION===
+
{{eracedu}}
−
;Keywords: Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.     
 
−
;Further Information
 

Latest revision as of 12:41, 5 December 2012

This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013.

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

  • To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
    • utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
    • avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
  • Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 60 h
  • Calculation exercises 9 h
  • Independent assessment study
    • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
    • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
  • Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

The course grade consists of:

  • Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
  • Case study exercise (2/3)
  • Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)

Classroom exercise scoring

  • Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
  • Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 4: max. score 5 points

Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).

Case study exercise scoring

  • Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
  • Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points

In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.

Course grading

The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.

Course grade Total score
0 <20
1 21-25
2 26-30
3 31-35
4 36-40
5 41-45

The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.

Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the corresponding password protected course page in Heande.

Partial accomplishments

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:

  • Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.

Content and schedule

Schedule and contents of the course.
  • Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
  • Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
  • Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Date Time Lecturer Lecture room Topics Material
28.2. 10-13 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S22 Introduction to the course
  • introduction to decision analysis: video , slides
  • introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides
  • Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S31 Introduction to risk management
3.3. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S23 Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard
  • independent exploration
    • Beginning of the pandemic
    • preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
  • mini-presentations and discussion
  • summary
4.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko MC9 Introduction to using Opasnet
  • Introduction to Opasnet
  • Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
  • Exercises
    • user accounts
    • DA study plan page
    • RM report page
    • browsing and searching
    • commenting and discussing
4.3. 13-16 Jouni, Marko S24 Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics

Lindley, a backup file

8.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Introduction to probability theory. video slides
  • Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.

Decision analysis (continued). slides

9.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.

Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?

  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
10.3. 9-12 Marko S24 Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides
  • Computer modeling video
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions video
    • Normal distribution is not the only option

Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.

11.3. 8-11 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise: slides
  • Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 Pope et al. 2002
16.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko S22
  • Probabilistic models video slides
 Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model
17.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko MC4 Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation
18.3. 13-16 Jouni S24 Overall view of different models video, slides

Why do we do modelling?

  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).

First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.

21.3. 11-14 Jouni, Marko, Mikko S24 Decision making under uncertainty
22.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko, Jouni S24 Decision-making under uncertainty (continued).
25.3. 9-12 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise.
29.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Full drafts of DA study plans.
  • Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
  • A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
  • DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
30.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S24 Risk management: State-of-the-art?
  • lecture: slides, video
    • perspectives to assessment and management
    • tendencies in EHA and EHRM
    • What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
    • RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
    • contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
  • discussion:
    • assessment and management in the swine flu case
    • questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
31.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S23 Risk management: a social learning perspective
  • lecture: slides, video
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
1.4. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management
  • lecture: slides
    • collective knowledge creation
    • pragmatic knowledge services
    • from an information society towards a knowledge society
  • exercise (task):
    • Discussion and structured argumentation in Opasnet
    • argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
7.4. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
  • Lecture: slides video: Mikko, part 1 2 Jouni, part 1 2
    • Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
    • It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
      • hypothesis development and testing
      • discussion
      • shared belief systems
      • inference rules
      • evaluation of page content in Opasnet
  • Discussion
    • Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
8.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S22 Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides, video
  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
    • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
  • An example of a swine flu DA, video
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
11.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar:
  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
    • presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
12.4. 8-11 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar
  • Presentations of the RM exercises continues
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

Links to information on specific swine flu topics

(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)

Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic

Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland

Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland

The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland

Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland

Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)

Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.

Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere

Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy

Halting of vaccination campaign

THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication

Searching for the guilty

EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy

Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere



Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

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