Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"

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[[heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
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:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013]].
−
[[Category:Decision analysis]]
 
−
[[Category:Risk management]]
 
−
[[Category:Open assessment]]
 
−
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 
  
−
'''Decision analysis and risk management''' is a [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=21196574 university course] [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940] for Master's Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
+
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big>
  
−
==Scope==
+
[[Category:Decision_analysis]] [[Category:Risk_management]] [[Category:Open_assessment]] [[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 +
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 +
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
  
−
What is such a good course content about decision analysis and risk management that
+
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
−
* it gives a good overview of modern assessment methods,
 
−
* is not overlapping with [http://www.uef.fi/toxen/courses other courses in the MSc program],
 
−
* utilises modern web workspaces for learning,
 
  
−
==Result==
+
== Aims of the course ==
  
−
;Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
+
* To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
−
;ECTS-credits:  6
+
** utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;  
−
;Abbreviation: DARM     
+
** avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,
  
−
===Content===
+
'''In the course:
 +
 
 +
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     
 +
 
 +
== Course details ==
 +
 
 +
* Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
 +
* Abbreviation: DARM
 +
* ECTS-credits: 6
 +
* Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
 +
* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
 +
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
 +
* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  Yes
 +
 
 +
'''Contacts
 +
 
 +
* Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the [http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL])          
 +
* Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
 +
* Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
 +
* Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
 +
* Registration for the Course: Wossikka     
 +
 
 +
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
 +
* Lectures and discussions 60 h
 +
* Calculation exercises 9 h
 +
* Independent assessment study
 +
** Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
 +
** Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
 +
* Web-Based Learning 30 %
 +
 
 +
== Lectures ==
 +
 
 +
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
 +
 
 +
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
 +
== Case study exercise ==
 +
 
 +
'''For the case study description and instructions, see the [[:Category:DARM exercise|case study exercise page]]'''
 +
 
 +
Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
 +
 
 +
== Evaluation ==
 +
 
 +
=== Whole course (6 ECTS) ===
 +
 
 +
The course grade consists of:
 +
* Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
 +
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
 +
* Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
 +
 
 +
'''Classroom exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
 +
* Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
 +
* Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
 +
 
 +
Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
 +
 
 +
'''Case study exercise scoring
 +
 
 +
* Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
 +
* Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
 +
 
 +
In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|case study exercise page]]. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
 +
 
 +
'''Course grading
 +
 
 +
The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
 +
 
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Course grade
 +
! Total score
 +
|-----
 +
| 0
 +
| <20
 +
|-----
 +
| 1
 +
| 21-25
 +
|-----
 +
| 2
 +
| 26-30
 +
|-----
 +
| 3
 +
| 31-35
 +
|-----
 +
| 4
 +
| 36-40
 +
|-----
 +
| 5
 +
| 41-45
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
 +
 
 +
'''Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the [[:heande:Decision analysis and risk management|corresponding password protected course page]] in Heande.
 +
 
 +
=== Partial accomplishments ===
 +
 
 +
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
 +
* Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 1: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 1: Decision analysis study plan|DA study plan]] (2 ECTS)
 +
* Case study exercise part 2: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 2: Risk management actions and options report|RM analysis]] (1 ECTS)
 +
 
 +
Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
 +
 
 +
== Content and schedule ==
  
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
−
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course.''' <br>Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work, in total 69 hours of teaching. In addition, self-organised group work and individual learning is expected to take ca. 100 hours. <br>Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.
+
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course.'''  
−
! Date
+
* Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.  
−
! Lecturer
+
* Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.  
−
! Theory lectures and exercises
+
* Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
−
! Case study discussions and exercises
+
 
−
|----
+
|-
−
| 28.2. AM (10-13)
+
! Date  
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+
! Time
−
| '''Practical introduction to course.'''
+
! Lecturer  
−
* Objectives, aims, expectations.  
+
! Lecture room
−
* Content and teaching/study methods.
+
! Topics
−
* Example from risk assessment & management study?
+
! Material
−
| '''Introduction to the case study and exercises'''
+
|-
−
* swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland 2009-2011: effects and side effects?
+
| 28.2.  
−
* group work: decision analysis study plan
+
| 10-13  
−
* individual work: reflections on risk management options and actions
+
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
−
|----
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
| 3.3. AM
+
| '''Introduction to the course  
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+
* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
| '''Introduction to risk management'''. What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+
* introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 video], [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
* Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.
+
* Introduction to the swine flu story: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 video], [[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|slides]]
−
* Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.
+
|
−
* Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
+
|-
−
* Developing risk management options.
+
| 3.3.  
−
* Development of risk assessment questions.
+
| 9-12
−
* Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
+
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
−
* Boundaries of RA and RM
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=f26f90bb-1dd9-45cb-9b08-10ff419304cb&groupId=10128&t=1255516413730 S31]
 +
| '''Introduction to risk management
 +
* Conventional perspectives to RM: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057097 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
* Open risk management: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057604 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
|  
 
|  
−
|----
+
* [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
−
| 3.3. PM
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/State_of_the_art_of_environmental_health_assessments State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)]
 +
|-
 +
| 3.3.  
 +
| 13-16
 +
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko  
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 +
| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/e/ed/Whiteboard_online.jpg whiteboard]
 +
* independent exploration
 +
** Beginning of the pandemic
 +
** preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
 +
* mini-presentations and discussion
 +
* summary
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Beginning of the swine flu story:''' How the swine flu problem emerged (spring 2009) and spread in the world.
+
|-
−
|----
+
| 4.3.
−
| 4.3. AM
+
| 9-12
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+
| '''Mikko''', Marko
−
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
−
* reading and browsing
+
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''  
−
* modes of contribution
+
* Introduction to Opasnet
−
* user accounts / logging in
+
* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
−
* basic editing
+
* Exercises
−
* commenting and discussing content
+
** user accounts
 +
** DA study plan page
 +
** RM report page
 +
** browsing and searching
 +
** commenting and discussing
 
|  
 
|  
−
|----
+
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
−
| 4.3. PM
+
* [[Opasnet]]
−
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko
+
* [[Help:Contents]]
−
|  
+
|-
−
| '''Swine flu story''' (summer 2009): Preparedness in Finland and internationally. Vaccination campaigns, counter-campaigns.
+
| 4.3.  
−
* Should we launch a vaccination campaign?
+
| 13-16
−
* Should I take vaccination? Should I not take vaccination?
+
| '''Jouni''', Marko
−
|----
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| 8.3. AM
+
| '''Introduction to probability theory''': [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video], [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
−
| Jouni
+
 
−
| '''[[Decision analysis]]: introduction'''
+
*[[Subjective probability]]  
−
* Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
+
*Practical exercise
−
* Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
+
*Bayesian rule [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13080233 video]
 +
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
 +
 
 +
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
  
−
'''[[Subjective probability]]'''
+
[[:heande:File:Lindley Philosophy of Statistics JRSS 200.pdf|Lindley, a backup file]]
−
* Practical exercise
+
|-
−
* Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks
+
| 8.3.  
−
* Denis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics
+
| 9-12
−
* Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
+
| Jouni
−
| '''Exercise part one begins:''' make a decision analysis study plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
|----
+
| '''Introduction to probability theory.''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13171805 video] [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|slides]]
−
| 9.3. AM or PM
+
* Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.
−
| Jouni
+
'''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]
−
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''.
+
*Measures of outcome: [[:en:Utility|Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[:en:Willingness to pay|WTP]]
−
| '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 
−
|----
 
−
| 10.3. AM or PM
 
−
| Jouni
 
−
| '''[[Bayesian updating]]'''
 
−
| '''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 
−
|----
 
−
| 11.3. AM
 
−
| Jouni
 
−
| '''Calculation exercise of Bayes'''
 
−
|
 
−
|----
 
−
| 16.3. AM
 
−
| Marko
 
−
| '''Monte Carlo modeling'''
 
−
* Why Monte Carlo?
 
−
* Background of the method
 
−
* Monte Carlo, simulation and Monte Carlo simulation
 
−
* Practical implementation of MC
 
−
** Programs
 
−
** Defining the probability functions
 
−
** Reading the results
 
−
* Monte Carlo vs. Bayes and Bootstrapping
 
 
|
 
|
−
|----
+
|-
−
| 17.3. PM
+
| 9.3.  
−
| Marko
+
| 9-12
−
| '''Calculation exercise'''.
+
| Jouni
−
* Case 1: Area of the table:
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
−
** Defining the model
+
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]; sorry, no video
−
** Defining the probability functions
+
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
−
** Reading the results
+
*Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
−
* Case 2: Mortality due to PM exposure?
+
'''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
−
** Ready model?
+
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
−
* Connections to use of knowledge?
 
−
|
 
−
|----
 
−
| 18.3. PM
 
−
| Jouni
 
−
| '''Overall view of different models''': [[Producing result from rationale]].
 
−
* Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
 
−
* Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
 
−
* Other relations (neural networks).
 
−
| '''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations of and discussions about DA study plan drafts.
 
−
|----
 
−
| 21.3. AM
 
−
| Jouni, Marko
 
−
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''
 
−
* Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight.
 
−
* Acceptability
 
−
* Value of information
 
−
* Analysis of model inputs, outputs, and structure
 
−
| '''Swine flu story:''' Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons.
 
−
|----
 
−
| 22.3. AM or PM
 
−
| Jouni, Marko
 
−
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''. [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]].
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
|----
+
|-
−
| 25.3. AM or PM
+
| 10.3.  
−
| Marko
+
| 9-12
−
| '''VOI calculation exercise. '''
+
| Marko  
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Computer modeling [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13220482 video]
 +
**Why?
 +
*Approximation
 +
**When data is not available
 +
*Monte Carlo simulation
 +
**When and why to use?
 +
*Common uncertainty distributions [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13221263 video]
 +
**Normal distribution is not the only option
 +
 
 +
'''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
 
|  
 
|  
−
|----
+
|-
−
| 29.3. AM or PM
+
| 11.3.
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
| 8-11
 +
| Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
 +
*Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 +
 
 +
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/images/7/7b/Pope_2002.pdf Pope et al. 2002]
 +
|-
 +
| 16.3.  
 +
| 9-12
 +
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.''' Presentations of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
+
* '''Probabilistic models''' video [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
−
* Are plans executable? What outputs are expected? Do they serve the intended needs? 
+
| [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
−
* What should the model do? How should the results be used?
+
|-
−
* The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work?
+
| 17.3.  
−
* The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
+
| 9-12
−
|----
+
| '''Jouni''', Marko
−
| 30.3. AM or PM
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=e40d7322-7e1e-44a2-93ef-32e284b65a69&groupId=10128&t=1262952468685 MC4]
−
| Mikko, Jouni
+
| '''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''
−
| '''Risk management''' (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
+
* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
−
* Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included.
+
* [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
−
* What is the role of decision analysis and modeling in RM?
+
* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' no video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
−
* Openness: RA, RM, RC are not totally separate.
+
| [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
−
* Performance: Context about what we actually aim to achieve. How do we know if we succeeded?
+
|-
−
* Developing risk management options.
+
| 18.3.  
−
* Development of risk assessment questions.
+
| 13-16
−
* Science-policy interface. Why it does not exist.
+
| Jouni  
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Overall view of different models''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13397033 video], [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
 +
Why do we do modelling?
 +
* [[Producing result from rationale]].  
 +
**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.  
 +
**Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.  
 +
**Other relations (neural networks).
 +
 
 +
'''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
  
−
'''[[Opasnet]]''' and other web-based decision support systems.
+
|
 +
|-
 +
| 21.3.
 +
| 11-14
 +
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''  
 +
* Why decision analysis?: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13473130 video], [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]
 +
* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
 +
* Value of information: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13489919 video], [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]
 
|
 
|
−
'''Exercise part two begins''': Risk management actions and options.
+
*[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
−
|----
+
* [[Value of information]]
−
| 31.3. AM or PM
+
* [[Value of information analysis]]
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
|-
−
| '''[[Trialogue]], collective learning
+
| 22.3.  
−
* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]] and its problems
+
| 9-12
−
* [[Inference rules]]: how do we know what we know?
+
| Mikko, Marko, Jouni 
−
* Shared information vs. private information
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
* Actions by a group based on shared information
+
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''.  
−
* [[Shared belief system]]s
+
* Assessment performance: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13490379 video], [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
−
* Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
+
** quality assurance/quality control
−
| '''Swine flu story:''' Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy.
+
** uncertainty
−
|----
+
** model performance
−
| 1.4. AM or PM
+
** information in use
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
** &rarr; [[:heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments]]
−
| '''[[Inference rules]]. [[Scientific method]]''' as open discussion. [[Falsification]].
 
−
* Do we need pre-peer-review?
 
−
|
 
−
|----
 
−
| 7.4. PM
 
−
| Mikko
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
'''[[Discussion]]''': Lectures of concepts
+
|-
−
* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]], [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
+
| 25.3.  
−
* Parts of [[argumentation]].
+
| 9-12
−
Structuring of discussions in practice and theory
+
| Marko
−
* Ready-made texts: discussions and organisation
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
−
* Homework: evaluate relevance - validity of arguments. Discuss in groups the next day.
+
| '''Calculation exercise. '''
−
* Build a structured discussion out of this in groups.
+
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
−
* Possibly utilise group writing tools?
 
  
−
| '''Swine flu story (autumn 2010)''': Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness.  How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed?
 
−
|----
 
−
| 8.4. AM or PM
 
−
| Mikko
 
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty.
+
|-
−
|----
+
| 29.3.  
−
| 11.4. AM
+
| 9-12
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 +
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.'''
 +
* Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
 +
* A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
 +
* DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
 
|  
 
|  
−
| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case.
+
|-
−
|----
+
| 30.3.
−
| 12.4. AM
+
| 9-12
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
| Mikko, Jouni
−
| '''Wrap-up and course feedback.'''
+
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
−
| '''Final seminar''' (cont'd).
+
| '''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13656373 video]
 +
** perspectives to assessment and management
 +
** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
 +
** What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
 +
** RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
 +
** contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
 +
* discussion:
 +
** assessment and management in the swine flu case
 +
** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
 +
|
 +
* [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
 +
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
 +
* [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
 +
|-
 +
| 31.3.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Jouni
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 +
| '''Risk management''': a social learning perspective
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13676880 video]
 +
** participation in assessment and management
 +
** dimensions of openness
 +
** assessments as collaborative information production projects
 +
* discussion:
 +
** role of public in swine flu case RM?
 +
** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
 +
|
 +
* [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
 +
|-
 +
| 1.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Mikko, Jouni
 +
|
 +
* 9-10: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S21]
 +
* 10-12: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 +
| '''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
 +
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
 +
** collective knowledge creation
 +
*** ''pragmatism, abduction and [[Trialogue|trialogical approach]]
 +
*** ''a game of questions and answers
 +
** pragmatic knowledge services
 +
** from an information society towards a knowledge society
 +
* exercise ([[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|task]]):
 +
** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
 +
** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
 +
|  
 +
* [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
 +
* [[Argumentation]]
 +
* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
 +
* [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].
 +
|-
 +
| 7.4.  
 +
| 13-16
 +
| Jouni, Mikko  
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 +
| '''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
 +
* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]] video: Mikko, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13830606 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831230 2] Jouni, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831527 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831967 2]
 +
** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
 +
** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
 +
*** hypothesis development and testing
 +
*** discussion
 +
*** shared belief systems
 +
*** inference rules
 +
*** evaluation of page content in Opasnet
 +
* Discussion
 +
** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
 +
|
 +
* [[Inference rules]]
 +
* [[Scientific method]]
 +
* [[Falsification]]
 +
* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
 +
* [[Shared belief system]]
 +
|-
 +
| 8.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 +
| '''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13848926 video]
 +
* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
 +
** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
 +
** Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
 +
* An [[Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|example of a swine flu DA]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13849567 video]
 +
** overview
 +
** model
 +
** results and analyses
 +
** conclusions
 +
** relations to groups' DA study plans
 +
* What's new about the swine flu case?
 +
* Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
 +
* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
 +
** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 11.4.
 +
| 9-12
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Final seminar:'''
 +
* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
 +
** focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
 +
** presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
| 12.4.
 +
| 8-11
 +
| Jouni, Mikko
 +
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 +
| '''Final seminar'''
 +
* Presentations of the RM exercises continues
 +
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 +
** presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari
 
|}
 
|}
  
 +
== Help and guidance ==
  
−
'''For the case study description, see {{disclink|Case study exercise (draft)}}.
+
{|{{prettytable}}
−
 
+
! Topic
 +
! Contact
 +
|-----
 +
| General arrangements
 +
| [[User:Jouni]], [[User:Mikko Pohjola]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: content
 +
| [[User:Jouni]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises: technical
 +
| [[User:Teemu R]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Calculation exercises
 +
| [[User:Marko]]
 +
|}
  
−
;Learning outcomes: The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     
+
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
  
−
;Learning material: Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org
+
== See also ==
−
;Degree Programme(s): ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment     
 
  
−
===Implementation===
+
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
  
−
;Time: Spring 2011     
+
=== Links to additional RM materials ===
  
−
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_1_Risk_Governance__reprinted_version_.pdf IRGC risk governance framework]
−
* Lectures 36 h
+
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_rgd_web_final.pdf Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration]
−
* Tutorial 0 h
+
* [http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/volume2/pdf/v2epa.PDF Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making]
−
* One-to-One Teaching 0 h
+
* [http://www.irgc.org International Risk Governance Council]
−
* Group Work 30 h
+
* [http://nap.edu/ The National Academies Press] (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
−
* Independent Study 96 h
 
−
* Web-Based Learning 30 %
 
  
−
;Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods: Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
+
=== General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu) ===
−
;Teaching Languages: English
 
−
;Additional Information on Languages
 
−
; Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): YES
 
  
−
===ASSESSMENT===
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1v Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)]
−
;Assessment is Based on:
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/ah1n1v/perustietoa/pandemia Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)]
−
* Participation in lectures and discussions.
+
*[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic]
−
* Case study decision analysis plan in groups.
+
*[http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/general_info.htm Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue]
−
* Case study risk management plan individually.
+
*[http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599924_eng.pdf Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)]
−
;Additional Information: The case studies will be evaluated based on contributions in Opasnet.
+
*[http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html WHO Pandemic page]
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/special_topics/general/general_content_000461.jsp&murl=menus/special_topics/special_topics.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac05801d7bfe&jsenabled=true European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu]
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1 EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination]
  
−
;Assessment: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)
+
=== Links to information on specific swine flu topics ===
  
−
;Additional Information
+
''(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
−
     
 
−
; Prerequisites
 
−
     
 
  
−
===Contacts===
+
'''Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic
 +
*[http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090425/en/index.html],[http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599924_eng.pdf]
  
−
; Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)          
+
'''Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
−
; Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=15437],[http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitus/artikkeli/Sikainfluenssa+uhkaa+koulujen+alkua/HS20090714SI1MA01b9h],[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/vimo/sll202009-1894.pdf],[http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Pages/index.aspx],[http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/documents/Report%20McKinsey%20Business%20Plan%20Flu3.pdf],[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_vaccine],[http://www.gsk.com/media/pressreleases/2009/2009_pressrelease_10089.htm],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23508]],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Health+officials+say+WHO+pandemic+pronouncement+does+not+alter+Finland%E2%80%99s+preparations+for+swine+flu/1135246834295]
−
; Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
 
−
; Contact Persons: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
 
−
; Registration for the Course: Wossikka     
 
  
−
===Further information===
+
'''Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
−
;Keywords: Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.     
+
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/rokotteet/sikainfluenssa_html],[http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/artikkeli/MTV3+Arkkiatri+moittii+sikainfluenssarokotteen+vastustajia/1135250236010]
−
;Further Information
 
  
−
==Rationale==
+
'''The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
 +
*[http://www.ktl.fi/attachments/osastot/infe/h1n1_2.pdf],[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/ajankohtaista/?bid=3328],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=21364],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=13307]
  
−
Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: [[Decision analysis and risk management - background information]]
+
'''Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland
 +
*[http://www.thl.fi/thl-client/pdfs/d8b1f8bd-1885-48cd-b924-cc6130f55f42],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/ah1n1/generalinformation/swinefluvaccination/schedule],[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22030],[http://yle.mobi/w/uutiset/yle24/ns-yduu-3-1171969],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=15578]
  
−
Other relevant courses than may have supporting, similar, or overlapping content.
+
'''Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25375098 Environmental Health for International Students, 5 op]
+
*[http://euro-med.dk/?p=13428],[http://blog.frequencyfoundation.com/2010/01/who-refuses-to-name-members-of-secret.html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/yhd/tiedotteet/tiedote_091024_html],[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html]
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=24258518 Toxicological and Environmental Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, 3 op]
 
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=24234201 Advanced Toxicological Risk Assessment, 9 op] Note! Group meetings 24.02.11 to 10.00-12.00, 17.03.11 to 13.00-15.00
 
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management, 6 op] This course!
 
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=24914760 Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment, 4 op]
 
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957788 Environmental health risk assessment, 4 op]
 
−
* The course ''Ympäristöterveys'' is openly available under Aducate.
 
  
−
See also discussions about the course content. {{disclink|Draft synopsis}}
+
'''Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
 +
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/medicines/human/medicines/000832/human_med_000965.jsp&murl=menus/medicines/medicines.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058001d125],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_All_Authorised_presentations/human/000832/WC500038123.pdf],[http://www.drugdevelopment-technology.com/projects/pandemrix/],[http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/EPAR_-_Summary_for_the_public/human/000832/WC500038122.pdf]
  
−
==See also==
+
'''Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
 +
*[http://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/topics/influenza/pandemic/h1n1_safety_assessing/narcolepsy_february2011/en/index.html]
  
−
* [https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=21196574 Course contents in UEF website]
+
'''Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
−
* [http://www.avoinyliopisto.fi/fi-fi/opetustarjonta/studyunit.aspx?StyleSuffix=UrlQuery&StudyUnitId=4d7a8f60-f11f-43b0-93db-d13fae0b690b#19ad5c69-179c-4a38-9079-7f4718926456 Ympäristöterveys-kurssi Avoimessa yliopistossa] (Environmental health course in the Open University; in Finnish)
+
*[http://yle.fi/uutiset/news/2010/09/eu_agency_no_link_between_pandemrix_and_narcolepsy_2006172.html],[http://www.mediuutiset.fi/uutisarkisto/article488794.ece]
−
** [http://www.uku.fi/avoin/ymp_terveys/oppimateriaali/ Course material] (in Finnish)
 
−
* [http://www.uku.fi/avoin/ymp_terveys/ Monimediainen oppimisympäristö ympäristöterveydestä]
 
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=538&docver=1&fileid=538&filever=1&filename=Keeney_2006_DecisionSciencePrograms.pdf Keeney (2006): Decision Science programs in the USA]
 
  
 +
'''Halting of vaccination campaign
 +
*[http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en/pressrelease?id=22930 THL],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/H1N1+vaccinations+suspended+over+narcolepsy+scare/1135259606164]
  
−
{| {{prettytable}}
+
'''THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
−
|+ '''Courses and course material on different topics related to risk assessment, decision analysis, and risk management.
+
*[http://www.thl.fi/thl-client/pdfs/f890b9f3-9922-4efe-889b-157fe2e03aa4]
−
|
 
−
'''Statistics
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statistics list of links to some methods of descriptive statistics]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferential_statistics list of links to many methods inferential statistics]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis fairly thorough description of sensitivity analysis]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty thorough mathematical description of uncertainty propagation and covariance matrices; nothing about Monte Carlo]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_integration how to integrate with Monte Carlo; not necessary in risk assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment a short description of training in subjective probabilities]
 
−
* [[:en:Frequency probability|Frequency probability]]
 
−
* [[:en:Bayesian probability|Bayesian probability]]
 
−
* [[:en:Principle of maximum entropy|Principle of maximum entropy]]
 
  
−
'''Exposure
+
'''Searching for the guilty
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exposure_science only a stub]
+
*[http://www.rokotusinfo.fi/english_html],[http://www.laakarilehti.fi/uutinen.html?opcode=show/news_id=10005/type=1],[http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Ministry+official+defends+decision+to+order+swine+flu+vaccine/1135259622342]
−
* [http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=20563 EPA Exposure factors program interesting for both teaching and opasnet Base]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exposure_assessment some basic concepts of exposure assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomarkers_of_Exposure_Assessment short description of basic concepts and examples of biomarkers in exposure assessment]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_exposure_modeling a short description of exposure modelling with indoor and outdoor air as examples]
 
−
* [http://www.nature.com/jes/journal/v15/n1/pdf/7500411a.pdf official ISEA/IPCS exposure glossary -> put to opasnet glossary]
 
−
* [http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es00077a001 total exposure assessment by Paul Lioy (1990)]
 
−
* [http://www.epa.gov/ncea/efh/pdfs/efh-chapter02.pdf EPA exposure factors handbook: chapter on uncertainty and variability]
 
  
−
'''Toxicology
+
'''EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxicity general terms and concepts of toxicology]
+
*[http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/02/news_detail_001211.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1]
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxicology a stub with useful links about toxicology]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_effect_concentration measures of toxic pollutant concentrations: short description about NOEC and ECx]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probit_model mathematics of probit model; advanced material]
 
−
* [http://potency.berkeley.edu/ the carcinogenic potency database: learn more about this!]
 
−
|
 
−
'''Epidemiology and public health
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology good description of basic concepts of epidemiology]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health a description but mostly about history and other trivia (trivia from RA point of view)]
 
  
−
'''Risk characterisation
+
'''Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion a good description of risk aversion with math required]
+
*[http://www.ktl.fi/portal/suomi/osastot/vimo/tutkimus-_ja_seurantakohteet/influenssa/influenssan_seuranta/#navi0],[http://www.ktl.fi/ttr/gen/rpt/h1n1.pdf],[http://www.thl.fi/fi_FI/web/fi/uutinen?id=23692]
  
−
'''Risk management
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_Risk something about security risk management; not useful]
 
  
−
'''Risk and impact assessment
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_assessment overview of RA in different fields]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management a long description of relevant concepts of risk management]
 
−
* [http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_catalogue/catalogue_ics/catalogue_detail_ics.htm?csnumber=44651 ISO/IEC guide 73:2009 about risk assessment vocabulary]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk a good description of basic concepts of risk]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_Risk_Assessment_software only a list of software; the software themselves may be interesting but haven't checked]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_identification only a placeholder of hazard identification]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_impact_assessment a brief description of HIA but lots of links]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_31000 a short description of a new standard ISO 31000]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_risk_assessment short description of PRA with software links]
 
−
* [http://www.epa.gov/risk/ EPA risk assessment website: learn more about it!]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Object_Oriented_Quality_Management Object oriented quality management: interesting idea of Statistics Netherlands; implementation unclear]
 
−
|
 
−
'''Decision analysis and economy
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrun description of concept of cost overrun (economy)]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_misrepresentation strategic misinterpretation (underestimation) of budget; an interesting detail related to economy]
 
−
* [http://jpart.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/1/4/437 Strategic misrepresentation in budgeting]
 
−
* [[:en:Decision theory|Decision theory]] in Wikipedia
 
−
* [[Decision theory]] in Opasnet
 
−
* [[:en:Prospect theory|Prospect theory]] in Wikipedia
 
  
−
'''Open assessment
 
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/How_to_use_Open_Assessment_in_research? a general lecture about the utility of open assessment]
 
−
** [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/8/83/Open_assessment_in_research.ppt presentation file related to the lecture]
 
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessments_-_science-based_decision_support background information about open assessments]
 
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Variables_-_evolving_interpretations_of_reality background about variables]
 
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Science_necessitates_collaboration background about mass collaboration]
 
−
* [http://en.opasnet.org/w/Evaluating_assessment_performance evaluating assessment performance]
 
  
−
'''Miscellaneous
+
Background information about other '''Decision analysis and risk management''' study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: [[Decision analysis and risk management - background information]]
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Agency_for_Safety_and_Health_at_Work very brief description of EU-OSHA]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Risk_Management Institute of Risk Management - gives RA education?]
 
−
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assessment this is about education assessment and learning philosophy. not very relevant]
 
−
* [http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/web/home/home/index.htm MIT Open CourseWare]
 
−
|}
 
  
−
== Related further education courses (in Finnish, organised in Kuopio) ==
+
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
  
−
Täydennyskoulutuskursseja DARM-kurssin aiheista järjestetään osana ERACedu-riskinarviointikoulutusta. Koulutus järjestetään yksipäiväisinä koulutuksina Kuopiossa. Koulutuksessa voi osallistua yhteen tai useampaan päivään; muiden osien käyminen ei ole välttämätöntä, mutta samassa kuussa järjestettävät koulutukset ovat aihepiiriltään lähellä toisiaan.
+
==Keywords==
  
−
# "Mini-DARM" (5.5.2011)
+
Risk assessment.  
−
#* Sikainfluenssatapauksen pohjalta toteutettu johdanto päätösanalyysiin ja riskinhallinnan perusteisiin.
+
Decision analysis.
−
# Päätöksenteko epävarmuuden oloissa (19.5.2011)
+
Bayesian theory.
−
#* Päätösanalyysi ja -mallitus
+
Open assessment.
−
# Keskustelu ja kansalaiskuuleminen päätöksenteossa: menetelmiä ja työkaluja (8.9.2011)
+
Risk management.
−
#* Kuinka järjestetään tehokkaasti kansalaiskuulemisia ja avointa osallistumista päätöksentekoon tai vaikutusarviointeihin?
+
Societal decision making.     
−
# Yhteisöllinen oppiminen (29.9.2011)
 
−
#* Osallistava arviointi ja mallitus.
 
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
Line 395: Line 565:
 
<references/>
 
<references/>
  
−
==Related files==
+
== Related files ==
  
 
{{mfiles}}
 
{{mfiles}}
 +
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
 +
[[Category:Open assessment training]]
 +
[[Category:DARM exercise]]
 +
 +
{{eracedu}}

Latest revision as of 12:41, 5 December 2012

This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2011. For a course organised in 2013, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013.

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

  • To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
    • utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
    • avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
  • Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 60 h
  • Calculation exercises 9 h
  • Independent assessment study
    • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
    • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
  • Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercise

For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page

Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.

Evaluation

Whole course (6 ECTS)

The course grade consists of:

  • Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
  • Case study exercise (2/3)
  • Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)

Classroom exercise scoring

  • Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
  • Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
  • Exercise 4: max. score 5 points

Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).

Case study exercise scoring

  • Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
  • Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points

In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the case study exercise page. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.

Course grading

The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.

Course grade Total score
0 <20
1 21-25
2 26-30
3 31-35
4 36-40
5 41-45

The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.

Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the corresponding password protected course page in Heande.

Partial accomplishments

For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:

  • Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 1: DA study plan (2 ECTS)
  • Case study exercise part 2: RM analysis (1 ECTS)

Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.

Content and schedule

Schedule and contents of the course.
  • Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
  • Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
  • Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
Date Time Lecturer Lecture room Topics Material
28.2. 10-13 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S22 Introduction to the course
  • introduction to decision analysis: video , slides
  • introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: video, slides
  • Introduction to the swine flu story: video, slides
3.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S31 Introduction to risk management
3.3. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko, Marko S23 Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides whiteboard
  • independent exploration
    • Beginning of the pandemic
    • preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
  • mini-presentations and discussion
  • summary
4.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko MC9 Introduction to using Opasnet
  • Introduction to Opasnet
  • Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
  • Exercises
    • user accounts
    • DA study plan page
    • RM report page
    • browsing and searching
    • commenting and discussing
4.3. 13-16 Jouni, Marko S24 Introduction to probability theory: video, Slides Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics

Lindley, a backup file

8.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Introduction to probability theory. video slides
  • Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.

Decision analysis (continued). slides

9.3. 9-12 Jouni S22 Decision analysis (continued). slides; sorry, no video
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.

Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?

  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done
10.3. 9-12 Marko S24 Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides
  • Computer modeling video
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions video
    • Normal distribution is not the only option

Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.

11.3. 8-11 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise: slides
  • Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 Pope et al. 2002
16.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko S22
  • Probabilistic models video slides
 Gibbs sampling Bayesian network Hierarchical Bayes model
17.3. 9-12 Jouni, Marko MC4 Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation
18.3. 13-16 Jouni S24 Overall view of different models video, slides

Why do we do modelling?

  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).

First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.

21.3. 11-14 Jouni, Marko, Mikko S24 Decision making under uncertainty
22.3. 9-12 Mikko, Marko, Jouni S24 Decision-making under uncertainty (continued).
25.3. 9-12 Marko MC9 Calculation exercise.
29.3. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Full drafts of DA study plans.
  • Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
  • A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
  • DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
30.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S24 Risk management: State-of-the-art?
  • lecture: slides, video
    • perspectives to assessment and management
    • tendencies in EHA and EHRM
    • What is managed, who is responsible, what is included?
    • RM in reality vs. (institutional) RM frameworks
    • contemporary challenges in assessment-management interaction
  • discussion:
    • assessment and management in the swine flu case
    • questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
31.3. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni S23 Risk management: a social learning perspective
  • lecture: slides, video
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
1.4. 9-12 Mikko, Jouni Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management
  • lecture: slides
    • collective knowledge creation
    • pragmatic knowledge services
    • from an information society towards a knowledge society
  • exercise (task):
    • Discussion and structured argumentation in Opasnet
    • argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
7.4. 13-16 Jouni, Mikko S4069 Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
  • Lecture: slides video: Mikko, part 1 2 Jouni, part 1 2
    • Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
    • It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
      • hypothesis development and testing
      • discussion
      • shared belief systems
      • inference rules
      • evaluation of page content in Opasnet
  • Discussion
    • Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
8.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S22 Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides, video
  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
    • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
  • An example of a swine flu DA, video
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
11.4. 9-12 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar:
  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
    • presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
12.4. 8-11 Jouni, Mikko S24 Final seminar
  • Presentations of the RM exercises continues
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
    • presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola
Case study exercises: content User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical User:Teemu R
Calculation exercises User:Marko

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)

Links to information on specific swine flu topics

(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)

Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic

Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland

Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland

The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland

Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland

Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)

Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.

Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere

Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy

Halting of vaccination campaign

THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication

Searching for the guilty

EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy

Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere



Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>

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