Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management"
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| 10-13 | | 10-13 | ||
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | ||
− | | S22 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22] |
| '''Introduction to the course | | '''Introduction to the course | ||
* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]] | * introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]] | ||
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| 13-16 | | 13-16 | ||
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | ||
− | | S23 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23] |
| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] | | '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] | ||
* independent exploration | * independent exploration | ||
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| 13-16 | | 13-16 | ||
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | | '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''[[:File:Decision analysis.ppt|Decision analysis]]: introduction''' | | '''[[:File:Decision analysis.ppt|Decision analysis]]: introduction''' | ||
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done | *Purpose of assessment: Why it is done | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni | | Jouni | ||
− | | S22 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22] |
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? | | '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. '''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni | | Jouni | ||
− | | S22 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22] |
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. | | '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Marko | | Marko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''' | | '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''' | ||
*What is modeling or model? | *What is modeling or model? | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni | | Jouni | ||
− | | S22 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22] |
| '''[[Bayesian updating]]''' | | '''[[Bayesian updating]]''' | ||
*[[:File:Probability theory.ppt|Probability theory.ppt]] | *[[:File:Probability theory.ppt|Probability theory.ppt]] | ||
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| 13-16 | | 13-16 | ||
| Jouni | | Jouni | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Overall view of different models''': [[Producing result from rationale]]. | | '''Overall view of different models''': [[Producing result from rationale]]. | ||
*[[:File:Overall view of models.ppt|Overall view of models.ppt]] | *[[:File:Overall view of models.ppt|Overall view of models.ppt]] | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko | | Jouni, Marko, Mikko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Decision making under uncertainty''' | | '''Decision making under uncertainty''' | ||
*[[:File:Evaluating an assessment.ppt|Evaluating an assessment.ppt]] | *[[:File:Evaluating an assessment.ppt|Evaluating an assessment.ppt]] | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni, Mikko, Marko | | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''. [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]]. | | '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''. [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]]. | ||
*Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko) | *Assessment performance? Quality of evidence? Impacts of uncertainty in decision-making. Hindsight. (Mikko) | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Marko | | Marko | ||
− | | S24, MC9 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24], MC9 |
| '''VOI calculation exercise. ''' | | '''VOI calculation exercise. ''' | ||
*Case 1: Weather example: | *Case 1: Weather example: | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Mikko, Jouni | | Mikko, Jouni | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Risk management''' (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. | | '''Risk management''' (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm. | ||
*Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. | *Look from decision-maker's point of view: needs, communication, and assessment all included. | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni, Mikko | | Jouni, Mikko | ||
− | | S23 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23] |
| '''[[Trialogue]], collective learning''' | | '''[[Trialogue]], collective learning''' | ||
*[[:File:Shared understanding.ppt|Shared understanding.ppt]] | *[[:File:Shared understanding.ppt|Shared understanding.ppt]] | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Mikko | | Mikko | ||
− | | S22 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22] |
| '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty. | | '''Swine flu story (January 2011):''' Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty. | ||
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| 9-12 | | 9-12 | ||
| Jouni, Mikko | | Jouni, Mikko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case. | | '''Final seminar:''' Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case. | ||
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| 8-11 | | 8-11 | ||
| Jouni, Mikko | | Jouni, Mikko | ||
− | | S24 | + | | [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24] |
| '''Final seminar''' (cont'd). | | '''Final seminar''' (cont'd). | ||
Revision as of 06:55, 3 March 2011
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Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
Contents
Aims of the course
- To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
- utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
- avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,
In the course:
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.
Course details
- Name: Decision analysis and risk management
- Abbreviation: DARM
- ECTS-credits: 6
- Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
- Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
- Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
- Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes
Contacts
- Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)
- Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen
- Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio
- Contact Persons email: mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi
- Registration for the Course: Wossikka
Teaching / Learning Methods
- Lectures and discussions 60 h
- Calculation exercises 9 h
- Independent assessment study
- Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
- Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
- Web-Based Learning 30 %
Lectures
See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information. Even more can be found at: Decision analysis and risk management - background information.
Case study exercise
For the case study description and instructions, see the case study exercise page
Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
Evaluation
Scale: 0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)
Evaluation is based on:
- Case study exercise (2/3)
- Completion of calculation exercises (1/3)
- Active participation during lectures will be taken into account while deciding final grades
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course: lectures (3 ECTS), case study exercise part 1 (2 ECTS), or case study exercise part 2 (1 ECTS). Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale.
Content and schedule
Date | Time | Lecturer | Lecture room | Topics | Material |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
28.2. | 10-13 | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | S22 | Introduction to the course | |
3.3. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | S31 | Introduction to risk management | |
3.3. | 13-16 | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | S23 | Swine flu story: risks and their management: video, slides
|
|
4.3. | 9-12 | Mikko, Jouni, Marko | MC9 | Introduction to using Opasnet
|
|
4.3. | 13-16 | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | S24 | Decision analysis: introduction
|
Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics |
8.3. | 9-12 | Jouni | S22 | Decision analysis (continued). Swine flu case as a decision problem: what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case? | |
9.3. | 9-12 | Jouni | S22 | Decision analysis (continued). | |
10.3. | 9-12 | Marko | S24 | Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation
Swine flu story (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought. |
|
11.3. | 8-11 | Marko | MC9 | Calculation exercise.
|
|
16.3. | 9-12 | Jouni | S22 | Bayesian updating | |
17.3. | 9-12 | Jouni | MC4 | Calculation exercise of Bayes | |
18.3. | 13-16 | Jouni | S24 | Overall view of different models: Producing result from rationale.
First drafts of DA study plans. Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts. |
|
21.3. | 9-12 | Jouni, Marko, Mikko | S24 | Decision making under uncertainty
Swine flu story: Use of adjuvants. How similar is the same? Can/Should be aim at zero risk? Benefit-risk comparisons. |
|
22.3. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko, Marko | S24 | Decision-making under uncertainty (continued). Value of information, Value of information analysis.
|
|
25.3. | 9-12 | Marko | S24, MC9 | VOI calculation exercise.
|
|
29.3. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko | S4069 | Full drafts of DA study plans. Presentations by students of and discussions about study plans. Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
|
|
30.3. | 9-12 | Mikko, Jouni | S24 | Risk management (theory). What is managed, who is responsible, what is included? Traditional paradigm.
Opasnet and other web-based decision support systems. |
|
31.3. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko | S23 | Trialogue, collective learning
Swine flu story: Secret connections to drug industry? Narcolepsy. |
|
1.4. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko | MC9 | Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion. Falsification.
|
|
7.4. | 13-16 | Mikko | S4069 |
Discussion: Lectures of concepts
Structuring of discussions in practice and theory
Swine flu story (autumn 2010): Vaccination campaign halted. THL remains silent about possible risks. Narcolepsy analysis. Impacts of openness. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed? |
|
8.4. | 9-12 | Mikko | S22 | Swine flu story (January 2011): Publishing of narcolepsy results and apologies. Searching for the guilty. | |
11.4. | 9-12 | Jouni, Mikko | S24 | Final seminar: Presentations (exercise parts one and two), discussions, and summary of perspectives to the case. | |
12.4. | 8-11 | Jouni, Mikko | S24 | Final seminar (cont'd).
Wrap-up and course feedback. |
Help and guidance
Topic | Contact |
---|---|
General arrangements | User:Jouni, User:Mikko Pohjola |
Case study exercises: content | User:Jouni |
Case study exercises: technical | User:Teemu R |
Calculation exercises | User:Marko |
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
See also
Links to additional DA materials
Links to additional RM materials
- IRGC risk governance framework
- Risk governance deficits - Analysis and illustration
- Risk assessment and risk management in regulatory decision making
- International Risk Governance Council
- The National Academies Press (publisher of e.g. "red book", "orange book", and "silver book")
General information sources on AH1N1 influenza (Swine flu)
- Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (English)
- Swine flu in Finland, page maintained by National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) (Finnish)
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), USA, information page on Swine flue
- Evolution of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO), 2009 (Report)
- WHO Pandemic page
- European Medicines Agency (EMA) information page on Swine flu
- EMA report on narcolepsy and possible association with Pandemrix vaccination
Links to information on specific topics
(current headings intended as first guidance, can be modified as seen reasonable)
Beginning and expansion of the global H1N1 Pandemic
Preparation, decision and promotion of H1N1 vaccination in Finland
Campaigning against H1N1 vaccination in Finland
The development of H1N1 influenza in Finland
Implementation of the vaccination campaign in Finland
Suspected connections between THL and the producer Pandemrix vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
Pandemrix vaccine - composition, testing, alternatives etc.
Emergence of narcolepsy cases in Finland and elsewhere
Suspected connections between Pandemrix vaccinations and narcolepsy
Halting of vaccination campaign
THL narcolepsy study, results, and publication
Searching for the guilty
EMA statement on suspected connection between Pandemrix and narcolepsy
Reoccurence of swine flu in Finland and elsewhere
Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).
Keywords
Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.
References
Related files
<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>