Decision analysis and risk management

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Decision analysis and risk management is a university course for Master's Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Scope

What is such a good course content that

• it gives a good overview of modern assessment methods,
• is not overlapping with other courses in the MSc program,
• utilises modern web workspaces for learning,

Definition

Background information from other available Risk assessment study programs are provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

Tasks based on the discussions with Jukka Juutilainen, 15.8.2010.

TODO: {{#todo:Update the short course description and give that to Susanna who puts it into Oodi. DL 1.9.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto|}}

TODO: {{#todo:List related courses in ToxEn and find out the course contents. Some material is in Moodle, learn to use that. Try and adjust the contents of this course to match the other courses without hampering the idea of open assessment. The course Ympäristöterveys is openly available under Avoin yliopisto (nowadays Aducate?). DL: 1.11.2010|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

Other relevant courses than may have supporting, similar, or overlapping content.

• Environmental Health for International Students, 5 op
• Toxicological and Environmental Risk Assessment and Risk Communication, 3 op
• Advanced Toxicological Risk Assessment, 9 op Note! Group meetings 24.02.11 to 10.00-12.00, 17.03.11 to 13.00-15.00
• Decision analysis and risk management, 6 op This course!
• Ecotoxicology and Risk Assessment, 4 op
• Environmental health risk assessment, 4 op

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the course contents and ask for lecturers. DL: 15.11.2010.|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

TODO: {{#todo:Develop the lecture contents for those lectures that you give yourself. DL: 1.2.2011.|Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio|}}

Result

Name

Decision analysis and risk management          

ECTS-credits

6

Abbreviation

DARM     

Content

Schedule and contents of the course.
Changes are likely especially in the content, but the dates presented here are more or less fixed.

Date	Hours	Lecturer	Draft content (subject to change); more detailed info coming soon
28.2. AM (10-13)	3	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Practical intro of course. Objectives, expectations, practicalities Intro to case.
3.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Risk management (theory). Case material collection and synthesis 1-2). Groups present summaries.
4.3. AM, PM	6	Jouni, Mikko, Marko	Opasnet training. Intro to project work. case 3-4. Group work: make a research plan to find out good policies in this case. Which models to use, what to assess?
8.3. AM	3		Decision analysis, basics
9.3. AM or PM	3		probabilities, utilities. Case as a decision problem. Group work: identify decisions, questions.
10.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	Monte Carlo modeling
11.3. AM	3	Marko?	calculation exercise. Connections to use of knowledge
16.3. AM	3		Bayesian updating CASE 5-7
17.3. PM	3		calculation exercise of Bayes
18.3. PM	3		Overall view of different models. Group work: return first draft of research plan.
21.3. AM	3		Decision making under uncertainty. Assessment performance. Acceptability
22.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	Value of information
25.3. AM or PM	3	Marko?	VOI calculation exercise. Case 8-9.
29.3. AM or PM	3		Trialogue. Practical work
30.3. AM or PM	3		Inference rules. Scientific method as open discussion.
31.3. AM or PM	3		Discussion about the current research plans.
1.4. AM or PM	3		Case 10-11. How methods learned should be applied now? Why openness is needed? Return second draft of research plan.
7.4. PM	3		Case 12-13
8.4. AM or PM	3		Apply the model to assess the case based on your own research plan. Defend your plan in plenary.
11.4. AM	3		What should the model do? How should the results be used? The core of a model can go through technical check: does it work? The assessment should link to the outside world: does it produce useful info, is it convincing to users?
12.4. AM	3		Presentations, summary and feedback
Teaching (lectures, discussions, calculation exercises)	69
Self-organised group work and individual work	100
Total hours	169

For slightly more detailed descriptions, see D↷

Learning outcomes

The student will learn about the fundaments of decision analysis; and the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment. He is able to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment. He also knows how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     

Content

• Theory of decision analysis.
• Value of information.
• Bayesian rule and Bayesian networks.
• Scientific method, falsification.
• Pragma-dialectic argumentation theory.
• Risk assessment as a collaborative project of information production.
• Opasnet and other web tools for risk assessment.
• Developing risk management options.
• Science-policy interface.     

Learning material

Online course readings in Opasnet: http://en.opasnet.org

Degree Programme(s)

ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment     

Implementation

Time

Spring 2011     

Teaching / Learning Methods

• Lectures 36 h
• Tutorial 0 h
• One-to-One Teaching 0 h
• Group Work 30 h
• Independent Study 96 h
• Web-Based Learning 30 %

Additional Information on Teaching / Learning Methods

Group work is in computer class.     

Teaching Languages

English

Additional Information on Languages

Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja)

YES

ASSESSMENT

Assessment is Based on

• Written Examination
• Project

Additional Information

The project will be a practical participation in a risk assessment in Opasnet.          

Assessment

0 (Fail) – 5 (Excellent)

Additional Information

     

Prerequisites

     

ContactsS

Organising Departments

Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare)          

Course Director

Jukka Juutilainen     

Teachers

Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     

Contact Persons

mikko.pohjola(at)thl.fi     

Registration for the Course

Wossikka     

Further information

Keywords

Risk assessment, decision analysis, Bayesian theory, open assessment, risk management, societal decision making.     

Further Information

See also

• Course contents in UEF website
• Ympäristöterveys-kurssi Avoimessa yliopistossa (Environmental health course in the Open University; in Finnish)
  • Course material (in Finnish)
• Monimediainen oppimisympäristö ympäristöterveydestä
• Keeney (2006): Decision Science programs in the USA

Courses and course material on different topics related to risk assessment, decision analysis, and risk management.

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