Difference between revisions of "ERF for heat exposure and mortality"

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[[heande:ERF of heat exposure on mortality]]
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[[category:Health effects]]
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[[Category: CLAIH]]
 
{{variable|moderator = Virpi Kollanus}}
 
{{variable|moderator = Virpi Kollanus}}
  
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[[Category: CLAIH]]
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{{todo|There is an overlap between this page and [[ERF of ambient temperature on mortality]]. These should be merged. I prefer the latter name.|Virpi Kollanus, Teemu Rintala|project=Intarese}}
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'''Boxes with dashed borders''' contain brief guidance text for completing the entries for new variables.
 
  
 
== Scope ==
 
== Scope ==
  
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This includes a verbal definition of the spatial, temporal, and other limits
 
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(system boundaries) of the variable. The scope is defined according to the use
 
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purpose of the assessment(s) that the variable belongs to.
 
  
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Exposure-response relationship for short-term heat exposure and mortality.
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Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.
  
 
'''Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable
 
'''Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable
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=== Data ===
 
=== Data ===
  
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Description of the data used for obtaining the value of the variable
 
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(e.g. measurement data; mathematical method and its parameters).
 
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Please include references (preferably using the ''<nowiki><ref></ref></nowiki>'' tags)
 
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and links to original data, as appropriate.
 
  
 
'''PHEWE-project <ref>Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.</ref>
 
'''PHEWE-project <ref>Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.</ref>
  
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Percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1<sup>o</sup>C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities
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Meta-analytical percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1<sup>o</sup>C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities
  
  
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!  
 
!  
 
|-----
 
|-----
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! Cause-of-death
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! Cause of death
 
! Age (years)
 
! Age (years)
 
! % change
 
! % change
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! 95% Cl
 
! 95% Cl
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| All-cause (natural)
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| All natural causes
 
| All
 
| All
 
| 3.12
 
| 3.12
−
| (0.60, 5.73)
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| 0.60, 5.73
 
| 1.84
 
| 1.84
 
| 0.06, 3.64
 
| 0.06, 3.64
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| 0.24, 3.89
 
| 0.24, 3.89
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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| Cardiovascular
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| element
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| All
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| element
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| 3.70
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| element
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| 0.36, 7.04
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| element
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| 2.44
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| element
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| -0.09, 5.32
 
|-----
 
|-----
−
| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 15-64
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| element
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| 0.57
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| element
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| -2.47, 3.83
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| element
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| 1.04
−
| element
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| -2.20, 4.92
 
|-----
 
|-----
−
| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 65-74
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| element
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| 1.92
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| element
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| -1.49, 5.35
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| element
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| 1.50
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| element
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| -1.12, 4.62
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 75+
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| element
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| 4.66
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| element
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| 1.13, 8.18
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| element
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| 2.55
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| element
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| -0.24, 5.51
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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| Respiratory
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| element
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| All
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| element
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| 6.71
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| element
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| 2.43, 11.26
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| element
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| 6.10
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| element
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| 2.46, 11.08
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 15-64
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| element
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| 1.54
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| element
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| -3.68, 7.22
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| element
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| 3.02
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| element
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| -1.55, 7.42
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 65-74
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| element
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| 3.37
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| element
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| -1.46, 8.22
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| element
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| 3.90
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| element
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| -0.16, 8.92
 
|-----
 
|-----
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| element
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|  
−
| element
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| 75+
−
| element
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| 8.10
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| element
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| 3.24, 13.37
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| element
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| 6.62
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| element
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| 3.04, 11.42
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|-----
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|}
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| element
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| element
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*Meta-analytical estimates are based studies in the following cities:
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| element
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**Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
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| element
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**North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
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| element
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*Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
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| element
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*Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)
 +
 
 +
Maud's interpretation of PHEWE<ref>Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719</ref>.
 +
 
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+'''ERF of heat on mortality.
 +
! Region!! Cause of death!! Age!! % change per 1 degree above threshold
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  15-64 || 1.31
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  65-74 || 1.65
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  TOTAL ||  75+ || 2.07
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  15-64 || 1.04
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  65-74 || 1.50
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  CVD ||  75+ || 2.55
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  15-64 || 3.02
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  65-74 || 3.90
 +
|----
 +
|| Nothern continental||  RESP ||  75+ || 6.62
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  15-64 || 0.92
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  65-74 || 2.13
 +
|----
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|| Mediterranean||  TOTAL ||  75+ || 4.22
 +
|----
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|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  15-64 || 0.57
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  65-74 || 1.92
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  CVD ||  75+ || 4.66
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  15-64 || 1.54
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  65-74 || 3.37
 +
|----
 +
|| Mediterranean||  RESP ||  75+ || 8.10
 +
|----
 
|}
 
|}
  
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=== Causality ===
 
  
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List of upstream variables.
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Temperature threshold:
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The variables can be listed used descriptive (free-format) names or unambiguous identifiers
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* standard threshold (29.4 °C)
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(e.g. [[Analytica]] IDs).
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* high threshold (32.4 °C)
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* low threshold (25.7 °C)
 +
 
 +
=== Dependencies ===
 +
 
  
 
=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===
  
−
Unit in which the result is expressed.
+
1/°C (log(RR) per 1 °C increase in the ambient temperature above the threshold)
  
 
=== Formula ===
 
=== Formula ===
  
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Algebra or other explicit methods if possible
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coefficient = ln(ERF of heat on mortality/100 + 1)
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(e.g. [[Analytica]] code between the <nowiki>''<anacode></anacode>''</nowiki> delimiters).
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incremental exposure = heat exposure - heat exposure baseline
  
 
== Result ==
 
== Result ==
  
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If possible, a numerical expression or distribution.
+
 
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
  
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Links to relevant information that does not belong to ''Definition''.
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*[http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759912/ Basu R. 2009. High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ Health. 2009; 8: 40.]
 +
* Liqun Liu, Susanne Breitner, Xiaochuan Pan, Ulrich Franck, Arne M Leitte, Alfred Wiedensohler, Stephanie von Klot, H-Erich Wichmann, Annette Peters and Alexandra Schneider. Associations between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China: a time-series analysis. Environmental Health 2011, 10: 51. {{doi|10.1186/1476-069X-10-51}} Published: 25 May 2011.
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
−
 
−
Will appear here automatically, if cited above using the ''<nowiki><ref></ref></nowiki>'' tags.
 
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Additional references can also be listed here.
 
  
 
<references/>
 
<references/>

Latest revision as of 11:27, 26 March 2012



TODO: {{#todo:There is an overlap between this page and ERF of ambient temperature on mortality. These should be merged. I prefer the latter name.|Virpi Kollanus, Teemu Rintala|Intarese}}


Scope

Exposure-response relationship for short-term ambient heat exposure and mortality.

Dimensions and boundaries relevant for the variable

  • Cause of death
  • Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
  • Age of exposed population

Definition

Data

PHEWE-project [1]

Meta-analytical percent changes in mortality by age-group with 1oC increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold temperature in European cities


Mediterranean cities North-continental cities
Cause of death Age (years)  % change 95% Cl  % change 95% Cl
All natural causes All 3.12 0.60, 5.73 1.84 0.06, 3.64
15-64 0.92 -1.29, 3.13 1.31 -0.94, 3.72
65-74 2.13 -0.42, 4.74 1.65 -0.51, 3.89
75+ 4.22 1.33, 7.20 2.07 0.24, 3.89
Cardiovascular All 3.70 0.36, 7.04 2.44 -0.09, 5.32
15-64 0.57 -2.47, 3.83 1.04 -2.20, 4.92
65-74 1.92 -1.49, 5.35 1.50 -1.12, 4.62
75+ 4.66 1.13, 8.18 2.55 -0.24, 5.51
Respiratory All 6.71 2.43, 11.26 6.10 2.46, 11.08
15-64 1.54 -3.68, 7.22 3.02 -1.55, 7.42
65-74 3.37 -1.46, 8.22 3.90 -0.16, 8.92
75+ 8.10 3.24, 13.37 6.62 3.04, 11.42
  • Meta-analytical estimates are based studies in the following cities:
    • Mediterranean cities: Athens, Rome, Barcelona, Valencia, Turin, Milan, Lubljana
    • North-continental cities: Prague, Budapest, Zurich, Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, London, Dublin
  • Based on climate and mortality data for the period 1990-2000
  • Exposure assessment: daily maximum apparent outdoor air temperature (nearest airport weather station of each city)

Maud's interpretation of PHEWE[2].

ERF of heat on mortality.
Region Cause of death Age  % change per 1 degree above threshold
Nothern continental TOTAL 15-64 1.31
Nothern continental TOTAL 65-74 1.65
Nothern continental TOTAL 75+ 2.07
Nothern continental CVD 15-64 1.04
Nothern continental CVD 65-74 1.50
Nothern continental CVD 75+ 2.55
Nothern continental RESP 15-64 3.02
Nothern continental RESP 65-74 3.90
Nothern continental RESP 75+ 6.62
Mediterranean TOTAL 15-64 0.92
Mediterranean TOTAL 65-74 2.13
Mediterranean TOTAL 75+ 4.22
Mediterranean CVD 15-64 0.57
Mediterranean CVD 65-74 1.92
Mediterranean CVD 75+ 4.66
Mediterranean RESP 15-64 1.54
Mediterranean RESP 65-74 3.37
Mediterranean RESP 75+ 8.10


Temperature threshold:

  • standard threshold (29.4 °C)
  • high threshold (32.4 °C)
  • low threshold (25.7 °C)

Dependencies

Unit

1/°C (log(RR) per 1 °C increase in the ambient temperature above the threshold)

Formula

coefficient = ln(ERF of heat on mortality/100 + 1) incremental exposure = heat exposure - heat exposure baseline

Result

See also

References

  1. ↑ Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A, Ross Anderson H, Bisanti L, D'Ippoliti D, Danova J, Forsberg B, Medina S, Paldy A, Rabczenko D, Schindler C & Michelozzi P. 2008. Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology, 15: 711-719.
  2. ↑ Baccini et al 2008 Epidemiology, vol 19, number 5, pp. 711-719
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