Difference between revisions of "ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population"
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In principle the ERFs for long-term exposure (produced by cohort studies) should also capture the mortality effects of short-term exposure (ERFs produced by time-series studies). In practice it is likely that they do not do so fully. This is due to the so-called "harvesting" phenomenon, i.e. it is possible that acute exposure, at least to some extent, only brings forward deaths that would have happened shortly in any case. However, adding effects of acute exposure to effects of long-term exposure is problematic because the risk of double-counting. <ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/air/cafe/pdf/cba_methodology_vol2.pdf Service Contract for Carrying out Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Related Issues, in particular in the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme. Volume 2: Health Impact Assessment. AEA Technology Environment, 2005.]</ref> | In principle the ERFs for long-term exposure (produced by cohort studies) should also capture the mortality effects of short-term exposure (ERFs produced by time-series studies). In practice it is likely that they do not do so fully. This is due to the so-called "harvesting" phenomenon, i.e. it is possible that acute exposure, at least to some extent, only brings forward deaths that would have happened shortly in any case. However, adding effects of acute exposure to effects of long-term exposure is problematic because the risk of double-counting. <ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/air/cafe/pdf/cba_methodology_vol2.pdf Service Contract for Carrying out Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Related Issues, in particular in the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme. Volume 2: Health Impact Assessment. AEA Technology Environment, 2005.]</ref> | ||
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'''''Pope et al. (2002) <ref>*Pope CA III, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K & Thurston KD (2002). Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9), 1132-1141.</ref> | '''''Pope et al. (2002) <ref>*Pope CA III, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K & Thurston KD (2002). Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9), 1132-1141.</ref> | ||
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*12% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes (95% CI 8-15%) per 10 µg/m3 PM2.5 in age group 30+ | *12% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes (95% CI 8-15%) per 10 µg/m3 PM2.5 in age group 30+ | ||
*14% increase in the risk of death from lung cancer (95% CI 4-23%) per 10 µg/m3 PM<sub>2.5</sub> in age group 30+ | *14% increase in the risk of death from lung cancer (95% CI 4-23%) per 10 µg/m3 PM<sub>2.5</sub> in age group 30+ | ||
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'''''Woodruff et al (1997) <ref>[http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1470072 Woodruff TJ, Grillo J & Schoendorf KC (1997). The relationship between selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 105: 608-612.]</ref> | '''''Woodruff et al (1997) <ref>[http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1470072 Woodruff TJ, Grillo J & Schoendorf KC (1997). The relationship between selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 105: 608-612.]</ref> | ||
*4% (95% Cl 2%-7%) increase in all-cause infant mortality per 10 µg/m3 PM<sub>10</sub> (age 1 month to 1 year) | *4% (95% Cl 2%-7%) increase in all-cause infant mortality per 10 µg/m3 PM<sub>10</sub> (age 1 month to 1 year) | ||
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| + | '''Tuomisto et al. 2008:<ref>Tuomisto et al. 2008. Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution experts. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93, 732-744.</ref> | ||
| + | *A structured expert judgement study of the population mortality effects of PM<sub>2.5</sub> air pollution. | ||
| + | *Opinions of six European air pollution experts were elicited. | ||
| + | *Percent increase per 1 µg/m<sup>3</sup> increase in PM<sub>2.5</sub>: | ||
| + | **Equal-weight decision-maker | ||
| + | ***Best estimate 0.97 | ||
| + | ***95% quantile 4.54 | ||
| + | ***5% quantile 0.02 | ||
| + | **Performance-based decision-maker | ||
| + | ***Best estimate 0.60 | ||
| + | ***95% quantile 3.80 | ||
| + | ***5% quantile 0.06 | ||
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Scope
ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population describes the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and specific causes of mortality in general adult population. The variable focuses but is not limited to long-term (chronic) exposure.
Definition
Data
PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter. Exposure-response function can be derived from exposure modelling, animal toxicology, small clinical or panel studies, and epidemiological studies. Exposed population can be divided into subpopulations (e.g. adults, children, infants, the elderly), and exposure is assessed per certain time period (e.g. daily or annual exposure).
- Health effects related to short-term exposure
- respiratory symptoms
- adverse cardiovascular effects
- increased medication usage
- increased number of hospital admissions
- increased mortality
- Health effects related to long-term exposure (more relevance to public health)
- increased incidence of respiratory symptoms
- reduction in lung function
- increased incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
- reduction in life expectancy
- increased cardiopulmonary mortality
- increased lung cancer mortality
Sensitive subgroups: children, the elderly, individuals with heart and lung disease, individuals who are active outdoors.
Mortality effects of long-term (chronic) exposure to ambient air
In principle the ERFs for long-term exposure (produced by cohort studies) should also capture the mortality effects of short-term exposure (ERFs produced by time-series studies). In practice it is likely that they do not do so fully. This is due to the so-called "harvesting" phenomenon, i.e. it is possible that acute exposure, at least to some extent, only brings forward deaths that would have happened shortly in any case. However, adding effects of acute exposure to effects of long-term exposure is problematic because the risk of double-counting. [1]
Pope et al. (2002) [2]
- 6% increase in the risk of deaths from all causes (excluding violent death) (95% CI 2-11%) per 10 µg/m3 PM2.5 in age group 30+
- 12% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes (95% CI 8-15%) per 10 µg/m3 PM2.5 in age group 30+
- 14% increase in the risk of death from lung cancer (95% CI 4-23%) per 10 µg/m3 PM2.5 in age group 30+
Woodruff et al (1997) [3]
- 4% (95% Cl 2%-7%) increase in all-cause infant mortality per 10 µg/m3 PM10 (age 1 month to 1 year)
Tuomisto et al. 2008:[4]
- A structured expert judgement study of the population mortality effects of PM2.5 air pollution.
- Opinions of six European air pollution experts were elicited.
- Percent increase per 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5:
- Equal-weight decision-maker
- Best estimate 0.97
- 95% quantile 4.54
- 5% quantile 0.02
- Performance-based decision-maker
- Best estimate 0.60
- 95% quantile 3.80
- 5% quantile 0.06
- Equal-weight decision-maker
'Mortality effects of short-term (acute) exposure to ambient air PM
Anderson et al. 2004 [5]
- 0.6% (95% Cl 0.4%-0.8%) increase in all-cause mortality (excluding accidents) per 10 µg/m3 PM10 in all ages
- 1.3% (95% Cl 0.5%-2%) increase in respiratory mortality per 10 µg/m3 PM10 in all ages
- 0.9% (95% Cl 0.5%-1.3%) increase in cardiovascular mortality per 10 µg/m3 PM10 in all ages
Unit
Relative risk (RR) per 10 µg/m3 increase in exposure
Result
ERF for chronic PM2.5 exposure
| Cause of death | RR | 95% Cl |
|---|---|---|
| All-cause | 1.06 | 1.02-1.11 |
| Cardiopulmonary | 1.09 | 1.03-1.16 |
| Lung cancer | 1.14 | 1.04-1.23 |
See also
- Relative risks of mortality -page in Heande
- Health aspects of air pollution. Results from the WHO project "Systematic review of health aspects of air pollution in Europe". World Health Organization, 2004.
- Pope et al. 2004. Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution. Circulation (109), 71-77.
- C. Puett, Joel Schwartz, Jaime E. Hart, Jeff D. Yanosky, Frank E. Speizer, Helen Suh, Christopher J. Paciorek, Lucas M. Neas and Francine Laden: Chronic Particulate Exposure, Mortality, and Coronary Heart Disease in the Nurses’ Health Study. American Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/aje/kwn232
- NEEDS - New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability, Deliverable 3.7 "A set of concentration-response function", Integrated Project, Sixth Framework Programme, Project no. 502687.
References
- ↑ Service Contract for Carrying out Cost-Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Related Issues, in particular in the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme. Volume 2: Health Impact Assessment. AEA Technology Environment, 2005.
- ↑ *Pope CA III, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K & Thurston KD (2002). Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 287(9), 1132-1141.
- ↑ Woodruff TJ, Grillo J & Schoendorf KC (1997). The relationship between selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 105: 608-612.
- ↑ Tuomisto et al. 2008. Uncertainty in mortality response to airborne fine particulate matter: Combining European air pollution experts. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93, 732-744.
- ↑ Anderson HR, Atkinson RW, Peacock JL, Marston L & Konstantinou K (2004). Meta-analysis of time-series studies and panel studies of paticulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3). Report of a WHO task group. World Health Organization.
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