Difference between revisions of "Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area"

Revision as of 10:19, 29 May 2009

Scope

Purpose

This assessments purpose is to evaluate greenhouse gas emissions and cost which are caused by small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan Area. In this assessment small-scale energy production means other used heating methods than district heating and those district heating units, which thermal energy output is less than 50 MW.

Also nuclear plant potential to produce thermal energy to district heating network of Helsinki and affects are assessed.

Boundaries

• Spatial: Helsinki Metropolitan Area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Kauniainen).
• Emissions: CO₂, PM_2.5.
• Heating methods:
  • District heating
  • The others
• Fuels: All (H/L oil, Pellet, Chip, Gas, Coal).
• Other impacts: Costs
  • directly from the activity itself of the greenhouse trade
  • new district heating extension costs

Scenarios

Common to the all scenarios:

• No new small-scale district heating units
• Other used heating method fractions of each others are same as in 2007

Base scenario:

• District heating network will be same as in 2007, but need of thermal energy increases, because of inhabitant increase in Helsinki Metropolitan area
  • No expansion to the network

Scenario 1:

• District heating buildings floor area fraction of the total floor area in cities is same as in 2007
  • 665 km expansion to the network

Scenario 2:

• District heating buildings floor area fraction of the total floor area in cities increases same rate as between years 2000 and 2008
  • 890 km expansion to the network

Intented users

• Local district heating distributors in Helsinki Metropolitan Area
• Participants of the | World Wide Views on Global Warming stakeholder meetings
• Participants of the COP-15 meeting in Copenhagen
• City-level policy-makers in all sectors in Helsinki Metropolitan Area as well as everywhere else
• International policy-makers related to climate change
• General public
• Scientists working on climate change and related fields of study

Participants

• The Assessment and Modeling unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare of Finland, THL.
  • Jouni Tuomisto (leading researcher, person in chrage)
  • Pasi Sorsa (assisting researcher, executing the assessment)
• Funded by Bioher-project

Definition

Gabi 4.3 - life cycle assessment software model parameters: File:Parameters, gabi-model.xls.

All the starting value and cost calculations made in the excel file; File:Assessment of small-scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area.zip

Decision variables

Indicator variables

• Cost and profit
• Emissions

Other variables

• Thermal energy need in Helsinki Metropolitan Area

Indicies

• Time: Years 2007, 2013, 2020 and 2030.

Analyses

• Analyses for small scale district heating plants and other used heating methods in Helsinki Metropolitan Area
  • fine particles PM_2.5 and CO₂ emissions
  • emission trading cost

Result

Results

Base scenario: District heating network is the same as in 2007.

Emissions:

2020 Nuclear and 2030 Nuclear in the table are emissions for situations, where the new nuclear plant is built to Loviisa and connected to district heating network of Helsinki.

Scenario 1: District heating network is expanded so, that district heating buildings fraction of the total floor area in cities are same as in 2007 in Helsinki Metropolitan area .

Emissions:

Scenario 2: Buildings, which use district heating, floor area fraction of the total floor area in cities increases as in figure 1.

Figure 1. Buildings, which use district heating, floor area fraction of the total floor area. Increase is estimated to be as it has been between years 2000-2008.

Emissions:

Costs: Emission trading affect on fuel prices is presented in figure 2.

Figure 2. Emission trading affect on fuel prices.

Pöyry Energia Oy has assessed that emission trading price will increase to 31 €/t_CO2 to year 2030. In European Union assessments has been evaluations that emission right price could be even 60 €/t_CO2.

Conclutions

Main purpose of this assessment was to calculate what kind of emissions small scale energy production units of district heating and other heating methods than district heating in Helsinki Metropolitan area would have in 2013, 2020 and 2030.

Consumption of district heating has been around 12 TWh each year in Helsinki Metropolitan area. In this assessment calculated that total consumption of thermal energy will increase about 940 TWh in Helsinki Metropolitan area. If district heating fraction of the total energy production would be remain at 2007 level, the district heating consumption would be increased 615 GWh. This would mean 27 GWh increase each year in consumption of district heating, which has been 40 GWh/a last 8 years.

Small-scale district heating unit emissions can be estimated to increase slightly or remain at 2007 level to year 2030, because those units production will also remain at the 2007 level. Many of the small-scale district heating units are in separate district heating network or not used to even out the peaks in need of thermal energy.

Other used heating methods in Helsinki Metropolitan area emissions area highly dependent of district heating network and extension of it. If district heating buildings floor area fraction of the total floor area is kept as in 2007, the other used heating method fine particle and carbon dioxide emissions are increased about 10 %.

If the new nuclear plant would be connected to the district heating network of Helsinki Metropolitan area, the total carbon dioxide emissions of energy production can be estimated to drop 70 % based on these calculations. Fine particle emissions are more dependent of district heating network coverage, because the other used heating methods are the main source of fine particle emissions. Notable is that in the calculations large energy production units changes in Helsinki Metropolitan area are not taken into account specifically .

More accurate calculations would acquire more information of buildings in the area and proportions of used heating methods in Helsinki Metropolitan area.

See also

• District heating in wikipedia
• Thermal energy need in Helsinki Metropolitan Area
• Gabi 4.3 - life cycle assessment software
• District heating production units in Helsinki metropolitan area

References