Difference between revisions of "European climate scenarios"

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{{comment|2 |Do these all happen by 2020?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 08:19, 10 August 2010 (UTC)}}
 
{{comment|2 |Do these all happen by 2020?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 08:19, 10 August 2010 (UTC)}}
 +
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+ '''The demand-side options in a UK energy scenario model [http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/f/primary_energy_chart]
 +
|----
 +
!Measure !!colspan="4"|Level of action
 +
|----
 +
|| Demand measures:|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Average temperature of homes|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Home insulation|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating electrification|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating that isn't electric|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Commercial heat / cooling demand|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Commercial heating electrification|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Commercial heating that isn't electric|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance demand|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance technology|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Commercial light & appliance demand|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Commercial light & appliance technology|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Industrial processes|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Individual transport behaviour|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Electrification of individual transport|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Domestic freight|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| International aviation|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| International shipping|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|}
 +
 +
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+ '''Explanation of options in a UK energy scenario model [http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/f/primary_energy_chart]
 +
|----
 +
!Measure !!colspan="4"|Level of action
 +
|----
 +
|| Average temperature of homes|| 1 Average room temperature increases to 20 C (a 2.5 C increase on 2007) || 2 Average room temperature increases to 18 C (a 0.5 C increase on 2007)  || 3 Average room temperature decreases to 17 C (a 0.5 C decrease on 2007) || 4 Average room temperature decreases to 16 C (a 1.5 C decrease on 2007)
 +
|----
 +
|| Home insulation|| 1 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 25 % || 2 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 33 % || 3 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 40 % || 4 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 50 %
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating electrification|| A The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10 %, as today. || B The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 20 %. || C The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 30-60 %. || D The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 80-100 %.
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating that isn't electric|| A The dominant non-electric heat source is gas (biogas if available). || B The dominant non-electric heat source is coal (biomass if available). || C The dominant non-electric heat source is waste heat from power stations. || D A mixture of gas/biogas; coal/biomass; and heat from power stations.
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance demand|| 1 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances increases by 20 % (relative to 2007). || 2 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances is stable. || 3 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 40 %. || 4 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 60 %.
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance technology|| A Energy used for domestic cooking remains at 63 % electricity and 37 % gas. || B 100 electric. || C As for B. || D As for B.
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|}
 +
 +
{{attack|# |The table below is incomplete. Do we actually need it?|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 13:32, 23 September 2010 (UTC)}}
 +
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+ '''Impacts of options in a UK energy scenario model [http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/pathways/f/primary_energy_chart]. Scenario R (all choices are 1 or A to start with).
 +
!colspan="5"|Changes for year 2010 (TWh)
 +
|----
 +
!Measure !!colspan="4"|Level of action
 +
|----
 +
|| Home insulation|| 1 1.906|| 2 || 3 || 4 1.897
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating electrification|| A 1.906|| B || C 1.906|| D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating that isn't electric|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance demand|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance technology|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
! colspan="5"| Changes for year 2030:
 +
|----
 +
|| Home insulation|| 1 1.997|| 2 || 3 || 4 1.997
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating electrification|| A 1.906|| B || C 2.048|| D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home heating that isn't electric|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance demand|| 1 || 2 || 3 || 4
 +
|----
 +
|| Home light & appliance technology|| A || B || C || D
 +
|----
 +
|}
  
 
===Traffic factors===
 
===Traffic factors===

Revision as of 13:32, 23 September 2010



Scope

What are potential climate scenarios in Europe (EU-30) during the period 2010-2050?

Definition

Data

Summary from the Mega Case Study page for the Intarese/Heimtsa Common Case Study:

Two European and two global scenarios are considered. The bases for our calculations are the European scenarios:

  • Business as usual: BAU
  • Policy: 2°C aim (-> Climate and Energy Package).

In the BAU adaptation measures need to be considered (e.g. more air conditioning due to a higher temperature). Direct health effects like excessive heat and UV radiation are also considered. The policy scenario assumes that the temperature rise can be limited to 2°C. This requires the implementation of mitigation measures. The EU plans to reach the 2°C aim by implementing the climate and energy package (at least 20% reduction of green house gases by 2020 compared to 1990, increasing energy efficiency to save 20% of energy consumption by 2020, 20% use of renewable energy, including 10% bio fuels in petrol and diesel). Thus, the aims of the package have been translated into measures. We made use of several sources for this: NEEDS project (TIMES model) for energy, transport, industry and waste and IIASA GAINS for agriculture, waste and product use, e.g. solvent use.

In addition to these European scenarios two global scenarios were selected that we defined as fitting to the European scenarios, namely the

  • IPCC SRES A1B (no further attempt to mitigate GHG, temperature rise ca. 4-5°C)
  • IPCC SRES B1 (world as a whole: 2°C temperature increase)

scenarios. They deliver boundary conditions, e.g. precipitation and temperature rise. It was suggested that for scenarios in the near future (in this case 2020 and 2030), we should be more cautious with assumptions on mitigation/adaptation efficiencies. Scenarios in the far future (in this case 2050), on the other hand, can be more speculative with their assumptions (“bold” and “what-if” scenarios).

BAU and policy scenario are compared to each other and the difference in health impacts attributed to the total bundle of measures in the policy scenario. However, the influence of single measures will also be modelled to understand their contribution to the whole bundle. If needed, sub-bundles can be analysed – being e.g. the case if measures are dependent on each other.

The scenarios are defined in such a way that feedback loops and adaptive processes (e.g. behaviour) have been dynamically modelled in advance and the scenarios have been selected as possible equilibrium states of the respective modelled part. They feed into the actual assessment as assumptions and input parameters.

Detailed scenario description

Potential Scenarios

  • 2020 reference: e.g. 20% GHG emission reduction compared to 1990[1], NEC targets[2], other policies in place or agreed on
  • 2020 policy scenarios: e.g. GHG emission reduction to limit increase in world average temperature to max. 2°C, additional policies beyond business as usual
  • 2030 reference: e.g. trend of measures started in 2020, no extended activity[3]
  • 2030 policy scenarios: e.g. trend of measures started in 2020 to limit increase in world average temperature to max. 2°C, additional policies beyond business as usual
  • 2050 reference: e.g. trend of GHG reduction measures started in 2030[3]
  • 2050 policy scenarios: e.g. trend of measures started in 2030 to limit increase in world average temperature to max. 2°C, additional policies beyond business as usual

⇤3: What are these policies actually? They should be explicated. --Jouni 09:45, 7 September 2009 (EEST)


  • Globally: IPCC scenarios A1B (business as usual) versus B1 (close to the scenario that will lead to max 2 °C increase)
  • In Europe: Business as usual versus 20/20/20 target accepted (20 % reduction of CO2 emissions and 20% biofuel increase by 2020) --4: These were discussed in the April meeting in NILU. Are these in line with the newer plans (see the paragraph Potential scenarios. --Jouni 09:45, 7 September 2009 (EEST)
  • Several decision options for different sectors (see details in each sub-assessment page). The idea is to have all policies or none at all as a comparison, and then as a sensitivity analysis drop out one policy at a time to see its own impact.

Dependencies

Unit

Several, depending on the actual indicator.

Formula

Result

House type

  • type a (before_1980)
  • type b (1980_2010)
  • type c (2010-2030)
  • type d (2030-2050)

House parameters

  • P
  • A
  • K
  • V
  • indoor source emissions
  • …

Time and scenarios

Time Policy scenario
BAU 2°C
2010
2020
2030
2050

Policy measures for energy

  • Insulation in buildings 1980-2010
  • Insulation in buildings before 1980
  • Mechanical ventilation in buildings 1980-2010
  • Change in air conditioning
  • Increase in biomass as renewable energy

Specific measures for policy scenarios

Measure Implementation in BAU Implementation in 2°C
Insulation in buildings 1980-2010  ? 30% of stock is insulated
Insulation in buildings before 1980  ? 80 % of stock is insulated
Mechanical ventilation in buildings 1980-2010  ?  ?
Change in air conditioning  ?  ?
Increase in biomass as renewable energy  ?  ?

--1 : Are these specified somewhere? --Jouni 08:19, 10 August 2010 (UTC)

--2 : Do these all happen by 2020? --Jouni 08:19, 10 August 2010 (UTC)

The demand-side options in a UK energy scenario model [2]
Measure Level of action
Demand measures: 1 2 3 4
Average temperature of homes 1 2 3 4
Home insulation 1 2 3 4
Home heating electrification A B C D
Home heating that isn't electric A B C D
Commercial heat / cooling demand 1 2 3 4
Commercial heating electrification A B C D
Commercial heating that isn't electric A B C D
Home light & appliance demand 1 2 3 4
Home light & appliance technology A B C D
Commercial light & appliance demand 1 2 3 4
Commercial light & appliance technology A B C D
Industrial processes A B C D
Individual transport behaviour 1 2 3 4
Electrification of individual transport 1 2 3 4
Domestic freight 1 2 3 4
International aviation 1 2 3 4
International shipping 1 2 3 4


Explanation of options in a UK energy scenario model [3]
Measure Level of action
Average temperature of homes 1 Average room temperature increases to 20 C (a 2.5 C increase on 2007) 2 Average room temperature increases to 18 C (a 0.5 C increase on 2007) 3 Average room temperature decreases to 17 C (a 0.5 C decrease on 2007) 4 Average room temperature decreases to 16 C (a 1.5 C decrease on 2007)
Home insulation 1 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 25 % 2 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 33 % 3 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 40 % 4 Average thermal leakiness (Watts/C) of UK dwellings decreases by 50 %
Home heating electrification A The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10 %, as today. B The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 20 %. C The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 30-60 %. D The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 80-100 %.
Home heating that isn't electric A The dominant non-electric heat source is gas (biogas if available). B The dominant non-electric heat source is coal (biomass if available). C The dominant non-electric heat source is waste heat from power stations. D A mixture of gas/biogas; coal/biomass; and heat from power stations.
Home light & appliance demand 1 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances increases by 20 % (relative to 2007). 2 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances is stable. 3 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 40 %. 4 Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 60 %.
Home light & appliance technology A Energy used for domestic cooking remains at 63 % electricity and 37 % gas. B 100 electric. C As for B. D As for B.

⇤# : The table below is incomplete. Do we actually need it? --Jouni 13:32, 23 September 2010 (UTC)

Impacts of options in a UK energy scenario model [4]. Scenario R (all choices are 1 or A to start with).
Changes for year 2010 (TWh)
Measure Level of action
Home insulation 1 1.906 2 3 4 1.897
Home heating electrification A 1.906 B C 1.906 D
Home heating that isn't electric A B C D
Home light & appliance demand 1 2 3 4
Home light & appliance technology A B C D
Changes for year 2030:
Home insulation 1 1.997 2 3 4 1.997
Home heating electrification A 1.906 B C 2.048 D
Home heating that isn't electric A B C D
Home light & appliance demand 1 2 3 4
Home light & appliance technology A B C D

Traffic factors

  • Enhanced use of bicycles in the cities

--# : Are these specified somewhere? --Jouni 08:19, 10 August 2010 (UTC)

Indoor emission sources

  • Unspecific
  • ETS
  • Wood burning (direct emission to indoor air)


See also

References

  1. ↑ COM(2009) 39 final (Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen)
  2. ↑ National Emission Ceilings [1]
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Interpolation by USTUTT between 2020 and 2050 reference targets regarding GHGs
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