Health impact of radon in Europe

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Scope

Purpose

What are the health impacts of radon in the indoor air of residential buildings in Europe?

Boundaries etc

Boundaries, scenarios, intended users, and participants are the same as in the Mega case study.

Definition

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A causal diagram of health impacts of radon in Europe.
Decision variables
Other variables
Indicators

Analyses

Indoor radon case study

  • Estimates health impacts of radon in indoor air of residences.
  • Nation-wide radon concentration distributions were obtained from EnVIE project and UNSCEAR 2000 report.
  • United Kingdom, Czech Republic, and Slovenia were rejected because of lack of data.
  • Exposure-response function was 16 % increase of lung cancer incidence due to 100 Bq/m3 increase of radon (Darby 2004 and 2005).
  • The same lung cancer background rate was assumed for the whole Europe: 58.2 cases/100000 person-years (Globocan 2008).
  • Linear no-threshold ERF assumed for the whole population in each country.
  • The model development, data storage, and model runs were all performed in Opasnet using R software and Opasnet Base.
  • The main page of the sub-assessment is http://en.opasnet.org/w/Health_impact_of_radon_in_Europe


Outcomes of interest of radon sub-assessment

  • Main health impact: number of lung cancer cases attributable to radon.
  • Preliminary estimate of DALYs attributable to radon (only draft estimates for duration of disease).
    • Disability weight 0.146 (from WHO) used for disease duration.
    • Duration of disease estimated at 2-36 months; life-years lost due to lung cancer death estimated at 1-15 years.
  • Preliminary estimate of monetary impact was obtained indirectly by converting DALYs into euros; other cost types were ignored.
    • One DALY estimated to be worth 30-60 k€.
  • Methodological outcome: proof of concept for running assessment models via open internet interface.

R code

##### Cases #####
cancer <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en4715")
array <- DataframeToArray(cancer)
means <- apply(array, c(3,4,6), mean, na.rm=TRUE)
means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE)
ci <- apply(apply(array, c(1,4,6), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975))
final1 <- means
final1[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="")
final1[c(1,3:5,8:10,13:15)] <- NA
final1
#finaldf1 <- as.data.frame(as.table(final1))
#finaldf1 <- finaldf1[finaldf1[,"Freq"]!=0,]
#barplot(finaldf1[,"Freq"], names.arg=c("2010", "2020 Policy", "2020 BAU", "2030 Policy", "2030 BAU", "2050 Policy", "2050 BAU", 
#"2050 Biomass", "2050 Insulation", "2050 Renovation"))
##### DALYs #####
DALY <- array(NA, dim = c(dim(array), 3), dimnames = dimnames(array))
DALY[,,,,,,1] <- array
DALY[,,,,,,2] <- runif(prod(dim(array)),2,36)/12
DALY[,,,,,,3] <- runif(prod(dim(array)),1,15)
DALY <- DALY[,,,,,,1]*0.146*DALY[,,,,,,2]+DALY[,,,,,,1]*DALY[,,,,,,3]
means <- apply(DALY, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE)
means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE)
ci <- apply(apply(DALY, c(1,3,4), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975))
final2 <- means
final2[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="")
final2[c(1,3:5,8:10,13:15)] <- NA
final2
##### Cost #####
cost <- array(NA, dim = c(dim(DALY), 2), dimnames = dimnames(DALY))
cost[,,,,1] <- DALY
cost[,,,,2] <- runif(prod(dim(DALY)),3*10^4,6*10^4)
cost <- cost[,,,,1]*cost[,,,,2]
means <- apply(cost, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE)
means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE)/10^6
ci <- apply(apply(cost, c(1,3,4), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975))/10^6
final3 <- means
final3[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="")
final3[c(1,3:5,8:10,13:15)] <- NA
final3

Result

Results

Lung cancer cases due to radon in Europe: Show results

Lung cancer cases in Europe due to indoor radon in residences (mean and 95% confidence interval).
Year
Policy 2010 2020 2030 2050
BAU 42691 (22042-95542) 51138 (24733-111979) 57618 (25785-137181) 62461 (27023-143632)
All NA 53385 (25402-130453) 68338 (28863-171718) 81873 (31372-239696)
Biomass NA NA NA 81849 (32497-218247)
Insulation NA NA NA 80534 (32445-236962)
Renovation NA NA NA 94075 (35396-288323)
Lung cancer DALYs in Europe due to indoor radon in residences (mean and 95% confidence interval).
Year
Policy 2010 2020 2030 2050
BAU 354123 (160272-858763) 421054 (179267-973507) 487524 (187827-1375364) 519762 (199734-1350828)
All NA 447277 (184120-1168959) 567628 (212250-1530363) 668094 (231818-2059205)
Biomass NA NA NA 678131 (229718-2041918)
Insulation NA NA NA 668271 (237831-2122354)
Renovation NA NA NA 783933 (254200-2452811)


Lung cancer monetary impact (based on DALYs) in Europe due to indoor radon in residences (mean and 95% confidence interval). Unit: M€
Year
Policy 2010 2020 2030 2050
BAU 16005 (6958-40014) 18921 (7741-44952) 22111 (8475-62373) 23284 (8875-59833)
All NA 20045 (8213-54354) 25695 (9419-72998) 30446 (10282-89414)
Biomass NA NA NA 30641 (10372-93065)
Insulation NA NA NA 30172 (10341-97361)
Renovation NA NA NA 35516 (11296-111727)
Lung cancer cases attributable to indoor radon in residences in Europe, year 2010.
Country of observation Mean SD
Austria 1105 1146
Belgium 857 796
Bulgaria 303 382
Switzerland 1636 2835
Cyprus 10 14
Germany 4754 4305
Denmark 382 408
Estonia 222 239
Spain 8245 15249
Finland 805 792
France 8204 12176
Greece 857 977
Hungary 1583 1985
Ireland 533 580
Italy 5035 5117
Lithuania 223 233
Luxembourg 68 64
Latvia 229 289
Malta 43 50
Netherlands 504 338
Norway 566 667
Poland 2175 1864
Portugal 1183 1208
Romania 1233 1357
Sweden 1353 1475
Slovakia 586 661
Total 42691

Conclusions

See also

Keywords

Radon, indoor air, lung cancer, Europe

References


Related files

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