Difference between revisions of "Heat exposure in Europe"

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[[Category:Exposures]]
 
[[Category:Exposures]]
 
[[Category:Heat]]
 
[[Category:Heat]]
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[[Category:Climate change]]
 
[[Category:Intarese]]
 
[[Category:Intarese]]
 
{{variable|moderator=Virpi Kollanus}}
 
{{variable|moderator=Virpi Kollanus}}
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== Scope ==
 
== Scope ==
  
−
What is the location-specific heat exposure in Europe, measured as the daily maximum ''apparent temperature'' (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) that is above the area-specific threshold value, averaged over the warm season (April-September)? What is the heat exposure now and what is it in the future?
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What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?
 +
 
 +
Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.
  
 
== Definition ==
 
== Definition ==
−
 
−
The variable is indexed by the [[EMEP grid]] and [[year]], and it is estimated separately for urban and rural areas in each grid cell. The daily values are averaged out to annual exposures.
 
  
 
=== Data ===
 
=== Data ===
−
 
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This is directly calculated from the parent variables.
 
  
 
=== Dependencies ===
 
=== Dependencies ===
  
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* [[Ambient air temperature in Europe]]
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*[[Ambient air temperature in Europe]]
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* [[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
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*[[Ambient air dew point temperature in Europe]]
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* [[European climate scenarios]]
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*[[Urban heat island effect in Europe]]
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* Temperature threshold for the [[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]:
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*[[European climate scenarios]]
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** standard threshold (29.4 °C)
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*[[ERF for heat exposure and mortality]]
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** high threshold (32.4 °C)
 
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** low threshold (25.7 °C)
 
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=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===
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=== Formula ===
 
=== Formula ===
  
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max( (Maximal daily apparent temperature - temperature threshold), 0)
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'''Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold
 +
 +
Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)<sup>2</sup>
 +
*Temp = air temperature
 +
*Dew = dew point temperature
  
 
== Result ==
 
== Result ==
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{{resultlink}}
 
{{resultlink}}
  
−
==See also==
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'''Heat exposure estimates for densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe
 +
 
 +
Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment [[Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe]].
 +
 
 +
'''''Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas
 +
 
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
| '''Climate scenario &amp; year
 +
| '''Averge daily max AT (°C)
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| '''No. days above threshold
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| '''Average threshold exceedance (°C)
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| '''Heat sum (°C)
 +
|----
 +
| '''''North continental region region
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|----
 +
| 2010
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| 16.9
 +
| 27 (23-32)
 +
| 4.0 (4.0-4.2)
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| 107 (90-130)
  
 +
|----
 +
| A1B 2050
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| 20.5
 +
| 63 (57-70)
 +
| 5.2 (5.0-5.4)
 +
| 323 (281-375)
 +
|----
 +
| B1 2050
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| 18.1
 +
| 27 (23-32)
 +
| 4.5 (4.5-4.5)
 +
| 120 (102-143)
 +
|----
 +
| '''''Mediterranean region
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|----
 +
| 2010
 +
| 24.2
 +
| 51 (29-79)
 +
| 4.5 (3.5-5.8)
 +
| 222 (103-458)
 +
|----
 +
| A1B 2050
 +
| 26.5
 +
| 75 (48-103)
 +
| 5.1 (3.9-6.8)
 +
| 373 (191-702)
 +
|----
 +
| B1 2050
 +
| 25.8
 +
| 66 (44-92)
 +
| 5.2 (4.1-6.8)
 +
| 340 (177-630)
 +
|----
 +
|}
 +
North-continental region:
 +
*Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
 +
*Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)
 +
Mediterranean region:
 +
*Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
 +
*Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)
  
 +
==See also==
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
  
 
<references/>
 
<references/>

Latest revision as of 17:41, 23 March 2011



Scope

What is the location-specific daily heat exposure in Europe?

Heat exposure is defined as the location-specific daily maximum apparent temperature (AT) (i.e. humidity-adjusted temperature) above an area-specific threshold value.

Definition

Data

Dependencies

Unit

°C

Formula

Heat exposure = Maximum daily apparent temperature - apparent temperature threshold

Apparent temperature (AT) = -2.653 + 0.994 Temp + 0.0153 (Dew)2
*Temp = air temperature
*Dew = dew point temperature

Result

Heat exposure estimates for densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe

Exposure estimates are based on air temperature and dew point data modelled with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional Model (REMO). Geographical location of large cities was determined based on EMEP grid level data on total population. If the population density within a grid cell surpassed 200 per square kilometre (i.e. 500000 within a 50 km x 50 km grid cell), the grid cell was considered to include a densely populated metropolitan area. These estimates were used in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe.

Average daily maximum apparent temperature, no. of days when temperature threshold is exceeded, the average exceedance on these days, and the heat sum (95% confidence limits) in April-September averaged over all large metropolitan areas

Climate scenario & year Averge daily max AT (°C) No. days above threshold Average threshold exceedance (°C) Heat sum (°C)
North continental region region
2010 16.9 27 (23-32) 4.0 (4.0-4.2) 107 (90-130)
A1B 2050 20.5 63 (57-70) 5.2 (5.0-5.4) 323 (281-375)
B1 2050 18.1 27 (23-32) 4.5 (4.5-4.5) 120 (102-143)
Mediterranean region
2010 24.2 51 (29-79) 4.5 (3.5-5.8) 222 (103-458)
A1B 2050 26.5 75 (48-103) 5.1 (3.9-6.8) 373 (191-702)
B1 2050 25.8 66 (44-92) 5.2 (4.1-6.8) 340 (177-630)

North-continental region:

  • Includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
  • Temperature threshold: 23.3°C (22.5-24.0)

Mediterranean region:

  • Includes Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain.
  • Temperature threshold: 29.4°C (95% CI 25.7-32.4)

See also

References

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