Difference between revisions of "Mortality effects of heat exposure in large European cities"

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(Created page with '{{variable|moderator=Virpi Kollanus}} == Scope == What is the annual number of deaths caused by summertime (April-September) heat exposure in large European cities? '''Indices…')
 
(→‎Definition)
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=== Data ===
 
=== Data ===
  
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===Dependencies====
+
===Dependencies===
  
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
 
*[[European climate scenarios]]
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*[[Population of Europe]]
 
*[[Population of Europe]]
 
*[[Mortality in Europe]]
 
*[[Mortality in Europe]]
 +
 +
 +
'''Methodology for modelling health impacts of heat exposure in the assessment [[Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe]]:
 +
 +
For each city (i.e. grid cell representing a large city), the number of days when the region-specific AT threshold was exceeded was determined for different scenarios. These days were then classified into different exposure classes based on the level of threshold exceedance on 1°C accuracy.
 +
 +
'''''Mortality caused by heat exposure in 2010
 +
 +
Adjusted relative risk (RR’) and population attributable fraction (PAF) for each exposure class (ec) and age-category were calculated as follows:
 +
 +
'''RR’ec = exp(β*Eec)
 +
where
 +
β = Percent change in mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the region specific threshold in  different age categories
 +
Eec = AT threshold exceedance in a given exposure class (0, 1, 2, … , 20 ºC)
 +
 +
'''PAFec = (RR’ec -1)/ RR’ec
 +
 +
Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:
 +
 +
'''Attributable deaths = PAFec * MR * Pop * Nec
 +
where
 +
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
 +
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010
 +
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in 2010
 +
 +
'''''Mortality caused by heat exposure in reference and policy scenarios in 2020-2050
 +
 +
For each country, the daily risk of natural mortality in the absence of heat exposure (MRbg) was calculated as follows:
 +
 +
'''MRbg = MR – (Mheat/Pop/183)
 +
where
 +
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
 +
Mheat = Total number of deaths attributable to heat exposure in a given age-category in 2010
 +
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010
 +
183 = Number of days in April-September
 +
 +
Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:
 +
 +
'''Attributable deaths = MRbg * (RR’ec - 1) * Pop * Nec
 +
where
 +
RR’ec = Adjusted relative risk for a given exposure class (see above)
 +
MRbg = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different age- categories in the absence of heat exposure
 +
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category and year
 +
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in a given year
  
 
=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===

Revision as of 11:41, 23 March 2011


Scope

What is the annual number of deaths caused by summertime (April-September) heat exposure in large European cities?

Indices

  • Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
  • Age
  • Cause of death
  • Year

Definition

Data

Dependencies


Methodology for modelling health impacts of heat exposure in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe:

For each city (i.e. grid cell representing a large city), the number of days when the region-specific AT threshold was exceeded was determined for different scenarios. These days were then classified into different exposure classes based on the level of threshold exceedance on 1°C accuracy.

Mortality caused by heat exposure in 2010

Adjusted relative risk (RR’) and population attributable fraction (PAF) for each exposure class (ec) and age-category were calculated as follows: 

RR’ec = exp(β*Eec)
where
β = Percent change in mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the region specific threshold in  different age categories
Eec = AT threshold exceedance in a given exposure class (0, 1, 2, … , 20 ºC)

PAFec = (RR’ec -1)/ RR’ec

Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows: 

Attributable deaths = PAFec * MR * Pop * Nec
where
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010 
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in 2010

Mortality caused by heat exposure in reference and policy scenarios in 2020-2050

For each country, the daily risk of natural mortality in the absence of heat exposure (MRbg) was calculated as follows: 

MRbg = MR – (Mheat/Pop/183)
where
MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories
Mheat = Total number of deaths attributable to heat exposure in a given age-category in 2010
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010
183 = Number of days in April-September

Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows: 

Attributable deaths = MRbg * (RR’ec - 1) * Pop * Nec
where
RR’ec = Adjusted relative risk for a given exposure class (see above)
MRbg = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different age- categories in the absence of heat exposure
Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category and year
Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in a given year

Unit

No. of deaths/year

Result

See also

References

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