Mortality effects of heat exposure in large European cities
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Scope
What is the annual number of deaths caused by summertime (April-September) heat exposure in large European cities?
Indices
- Country/other geographic area (differences in heat exposure/effects due to climate, physiological, cultural or behavioral factors)
- Age
- Cause of death
- Year
Definition
Data
Dependencies
- European climate scenarios
- Heat exposure in Europe
- ERF of ambient temperature on mortality
- Population of Europe
- Mortality in Europe
Methodology for modelling health impacts of heat exposure in the assessment Health impacts of urban heat island mitigation in Europe:
For each city (i.e. grid cell representing a large city), the number of days when the region-specific AT threshold was exceeded was determined for different scenarios. These days were then classified into different exposure classes based on the level of threshold exceedance on 1°C accuracy.
Mortality caused by heat exposure in 2010
Adjusted relative risk (RR’) and population attributable fraction (PAF) for each exposure class (ec) and age-category were calculated as follows:
RR’ec = exp(β*Eec) where β = Percent change in mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the region specific threshold in different age categories Eec = AT threshold exceedance in a given exposure class (0, 1, 2, … , 20 ºC)
PAFec = (RR’ec -1)/ RR’ec
Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:
Attributable deaths = PAFec * MR * Pop * Nec where MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010 Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in 2010
Mortality caused by heat exposure in reference and policy scenarios in 2020-2050
For each country, the daily risk of natural mortality in the absence of heat exposure (MRbg) was calculated as follows:
MRbg = MR – (Mheat/Pop/183) where MR = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different countries and age- categories Mheat = Total number of deaths attributable to heat exposure in a given age-category in 2010 Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category in 2010 183 = Number of days in April-September
Annual number of deaths attributable to heat exposure was calculated as follows:
Attributable deaths = MRbg * (RR’ec - 1) * Pop * Nec where RR’ec = Adjusted relative risk for a given exposure class (see above) MRbg = Daily risk of mortality from natural causes in different age- categories in the absence of heat exposure Pop = Number of population in a city in a given age-category and year Nec = Number of days in a given exposure class in a given year
Unit
No. of deaths/year