Difference between revisions of "Prices of fuels in heat production"

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{{variable|moderator=Pauliina}}
+
<noinclude>
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[[Category: BIOHER]]
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[[Category:Energy]]
−
 
+
{{variable|moderator=Jouni}}
 +
[[Category:BIOHER]]
 +
</noinclude>
 
== Question ==
 
== Question ==
  
 
What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?
 
What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?
  
−
# Numbered list item
 
 
== Answer ==
 
== Answer ==
 +
 +
[[image:Fuelprices.png|thumb|centre|500px|Prices of fuels in heat production without tax.]]
 +
 +
An example code for fetching and running the ovariable.
  
 
<rcode embed=1>
 
<rcode embed=1>
 +
## This code is Op_en4151/ on page [[Prices of fuels in heat production]].
 +
 
library(OpasnetUtils)
 
library(OpasnetUtils)
  
Line 19: Line 26:
  
 
== Rationale ==
 
== Rationale ==
 +
 +
This page contains prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of [http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehkh/2009/04/index.html Statistics Finland] In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!
 +
 +
This code calculates the price of fuels including tax.
 +
 +
<rcode name="fuelPrice" label="Initiate fuelPrice" embed=1>
 +
library(OpasnetUtils)
 +
 +
fuelPrice <- Ovariable(
 +
"fuelPrice",
 +
dependencies = data.frame(
 +
Name = c("fuelPriceRaw", "fuelTax"),
 +
Ident = c("Op_en4151/fuelPriceRaw", "Op_en4151/fuelTax")
 +
),
 +
formula = function(...){
 +
out <- fuelPriceRaw
 +
out$Result <- 0 #result(out)
 +
out <- merge(out, Ovariable(output = data.frame(Tax = unique(fuelTax$Tax)), marginal = TRUE))
 +
time <- as.POSIXct(strptime(paste("1.1.", as.character(out$Time), sep = ""), format = "%d.%m.%Y"))
 +
for (i in 1:nrow(out@output)) {
 +
temp <- merge(out[i,colnames(out@output) != "Time"], fuelTax)
 +
if (nrow(temp@output) > 0) out$Result[i] <- temp$fuelTaxResult[which.min(abs(temp$Time - time[i]))]
 +
}
 +
out <- oapply(out, NULL, sum, "Tax")
 +
 +
out <- out + fuelPriceRaw
 +
 +
levels(out$Fuel)[levels(out$Fuel) == "Electricity"] <- "Electricity_taxed"
 +
out@output <- orbind(out, fuelPriceRaw[fuelPriceRaw$Fuel == "Electricity",])
 +
result(out)[is.na(result(out))] <- out$fuelPriceRawResult[is.na(result(out))]
 +
return(out)
 +
}
 +
)
 +
 +
objects.store(fuelPrice)
 +
</rcode>
 +
 +
=== Prices of fuels without tax ===
 +
 +
A previous version was based on several info sources [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/index.php?title=Prices_of_fuels_in_heat_production&oldid=38265]. However, this resulted in inconsistent prices between fuels. Now the table is simplified and made more robust using IEA estimates {{#l:VTT-R-03704-14_YDINPAP_(1).pdf}} page 8, with the cost of accuracy. There should be an expert panel discussing the interdependencies of fuel prices to get the correct order.
  
 
<t2b name="Fuel prices" index="Fuel,Time" locations="1985,1995,2005,2015,2025,2035,2045,2055,2065" unit="€ /MWh" desc="Description">
 
<t2b name="Fuel prices" index="Fuel,Time" locations="1985,1995,2005,2015,2025,2035,2045,2055,2065" unit="€ /MWh" desc="Description">
−
Coal|8.5|9.41|13.78|30.31|33.5|37.0|40.9|45.1|49.8|CAGR 1.0 %.
+
Coal|8.5|9.41|13.78|20|15|15|15|15|15|
−
Gas|9.1|11.6|16.2|42.90|56.5|74.5|98.2|129.5|170.7|CAGR 2.8 %.
+
Gas|9.1|11.6|16.2|42.9|40|40|40|40|40|
−
Natural gas|9.1|11.6|16.2|42.90|56.5|74.5|98.2|129.5|170.7|CAGR 2.8 %.
+
Natural gas|9.1|11.6|16.2|42.9|40|40|40|40|40|Same as gas.
−
Oil|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|CAGR 1.0 %.
+
Oil|14.3|25|32|52|54|61|68|75|82|
−
Crude oil|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|
+
Crude oil|14.3|25|32|52|54|61|68|75|82|Same as oil.
−
Fuel oil|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|
+
Fuel oil|14.3|25|32|52|54|61|68|75|82|Same as oil.
−
Heavy oil|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|40|
+
Heavy oil|14.3|25|32|52|54|61|68|75|82|Same as oil.
−
Light oil|15.2|24.5|54.6|92.1|60|60|60|60|60|1995, 2005, 2015 actual values. 1985 value presumed to be similar to 1988 value.
+
Light oil|16|28|35|55|57|64|72|79|86|Slightly higher than oil.
−
Bio|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|
+
Bio|9|10|11|21|28|35|45|57|76|
−
Biofuel|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|50|
+
Biofuel|9|10|11|21|28|35|45|57|65|Same as bio.
−
Electricity|40|40|40|40|40|50|50|50|50|
+
Peat|6.6|8|9.8|17|21|28|35|45|50|
−
Heat|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|
+
Electricity|40|40|40|40|42|55|58|60|65|
−
Cooling|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|60|
+
Heat|30.8|30.8|40.4|53.99|63|63|65|65|68|
 +
Cooling|30.8|30.8|40.4|53.99|63|63|65|65|68|Same as heat
 
</t2b>
 
</t2b>
  
 
All prices are in 2015 euros.
 
All prices are in 2015 euros.
  
−
All 2015 fuel prices are actual prices from March 2015, all 2005 values are actual prices from March 2005, all 1995 values are presumed to be similar to the 1998 values. 1985 values estimated from 1995 values. Statistics Finland<ref name="statfi">http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp</ref>.
+
Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Light oil and Bio/Biofuel and Peat data from Statistics Finland<ref>Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp</ref>. Bio/Biofuel stands for wood chips.
 +
 
 +
Oil prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration<ref>U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm</ref>. All values converted first to 2015 dollars (inflation correction) and then to 2015 euros using the current (21.7.2015) exchange ratio of 1 $ = 0.923 €. Price per barrel then converted to price per MWh presuming that the energy released by burning one barrel is about 5.8 x 10<sup>6</sup> BTU = 1.7 MWh, U.S. Internal Revenue Service<ref>Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf</ref>.
 +
 
 +
Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Oil, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Heavy oil and Light oil from U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040" <ref>U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf</ref>. CAGR for Bio/Biofuel and Peat estimated to be 2 %, based on the price history.
  
 
Price of electricity [http://www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/professori-olkiluoto-3n-sahko-ei-valttamatta-kannattavaa/24UK2cCn].{{disclink|Price of nuclear electricity}}
 
Price of electricity [http://www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/professori-olkiluoto-3n-sahko-ei-valttamatta-kannattavaa/24UK2cCn].{{disclink|Price of nuclear electricity}}
  
−
<rcode name="fuelPrice" label="Initiate fuelPrice" embed=1 store=1>
+
District heating data is based on the price for an apartment building (volume 10 000 m3, energy need 450 MWh/a). Data from Statistics Finland [http://pxnet2.stat.fi/PXWeb/pxweb/fi/StatFin/StatFin__ene__ehi/080_ehi_tau_108_fi.px/table/tableViewLayout1/?rxid=704b8a06-77ff-4e33-b80f-0c2a3a840837]. We assume that the price of district cooling is the same (although district cooling has been available only for a few years).
−
## This is code Op_en4151/fuelPrice on page Prices of fuels in heat production
+
 
 +
Uncertainties are assumed in the same way for all fuels: a certain percentage up and down from the best estimate, varying by year. The following uncertainties were used: 2025 5 %, 2035 10 %, 2045 15 %, 2055 20 %, 2065 30 %. It should be noted that uncertainties are different for different fuels, but we were unable to estimate fuel-specific uncertainties.
 +
 
 +
<rcode name="fuelPriceRaw" label="Initiate fuelPriceRaw" embed=1 store=1>
 +
## This is code Op_en4151/fuelPriceRaw on page Prices of fuels in heat production
 
library(OpasnetUtils)
 
library(OpasnetUtils)
  
−
fuelPrice <- Ovariable("fuelPrice", ddata = "Op_en4151", subset = "Fuel prices")
+
fuelPriceRaw <- Ovariable("fuelPriceRaw", ddata = "Op_en4151", subset = "Fuel prices")
  
−
objects.store(fuelPrice)
+
objects.store(fuelPriceRaw)
−
cat("Ovariable fuelPrice stored.\n")
+
cat("Ovariable fuelPriceRaw stored.\n")
 +
</rcode>
 +
 
 +
=== Taxes for different fuels===
 +
 
 +
{| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed"
 +
! Show details
 +
|----
 +
|
 +
<t2b name="Taxes of fuels" index="Time,Tax,Fuel" locations="Petrol,Diesel,Light fuel oil,Heavy fuel oil,Coal,Natural gas,Peat,Biofuel,Electricity" unit="c€/l,c€/l,c€/l,c€/l,c€/kg,€/t,€/MWh,€/MWh,€/MWh,c€/kWh" desc="Description">
 +
1.9.1990|Product tax|21.53|16.82|0.34|0.34|2.69|0.17|0.34|0||
 +
1.1.1991|Product tax|26.57|17.49|0.35|0.35|2.83|0.18|0.35|0||
 +
1.1.1992|Product tax|28.26|17.49|0.35|0.35|2.83|0.18|0.35|0||
 +
1.8.1992|Product tax|31.62|17.49|0.35|0.35|2.83|0.18|0.35|0||
 +
1.1.1993|Product tax|39.52|19.17|1.41|1.12|5.61|0.35|0.70|0|0.25|
 +
1.7.1993|Product tax|39.52|16.65|1.41|1.12|5.61|0.35|0.70|0|0.25|
 +
1.1.1994|Product tax|40.05|17.29|2.05|1.98|11.30|1.09|0.35|0||
 +
1.1.1995|Product tax|45.12|27.50|3.02|3.12|19.53|0.94|0.59|0||
 +
1.1.1996|Product tax|51.85|27.50|3.02|3.12|19.53|0.94|0.59|0||
 +
1.1.1997|Product tax|51.85|27.50|4.88|3.72|28.42|1.19|0.71|0|0.40|
 +
1.4.1997|Product tax|51.85|27.50|4.88|3.72|28.42|1.19|0.71|0|0.24|
 +
1.1.1998|Product tax|55.22|30.02|5.50|4.34|33.40|1.40|0.82|0|0.34|
 +
1.9.1998|Product tax|55.22|30.02|6.37|5.40|41.37|1.73|1.51|0|0.42|
 +
1.1.2003|Product tax|58.08|31.59|6.71|5.68|43.52|1.82|1.59|0|0.44|
 +
1.7.2005|Product tax|58.08|31.59|6.71|5.68|43.52|1.82||0|0.44|
 +
1.1.2007|Product tax|58.08|31.59|6.71|5.68|43.52|1.82||0|0.22|
 +
1.1.2008|Product tax|62.02|36.05|8.35|6.42|49.32|2.016||0|0.25|
 +
1.1.2011|Product tax|62.02|36.05|15.70|18.51|126.91|8.94|1.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2012|Product tax|64.36|46.60|15.70|18.51|126.91|8.940|1.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2013|Product tax|64.36|46.60|15.99|18.93|131.53|11.38|4.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2014|Product tax|66.61|49.31|15.99|18.93|131.53|11.38|4.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2015|Product tax|66.61|49.31|15.99|18.93|153.24|15.36|3.40|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2011|Energy content tax|50.36||7.70|8.79|54.54|3.00||0||
 +
1.1.2012|Energy content tax|50.36|30.70|7.70|8.79|54.54|3.00||0||
 +
1.1.2013|Energy content tax|50.36|30.70|6.65|7.59|47.10|4.45||0||
 +
1.1.2015|Energy content tax|50.36|30.70|6.65|7.59|47.10|6.65||0||
 +
1.1.2011|Carbon dioxide tax|11.66||8.00|9.72|72.37|5.94||0||
 +
1.1.2012|Carbon dioxide tax|14.00|15.90|8.00|9.72|72.37|5.94||0||
 +
1.1.2013|Carbon dioxide tax|14.00|15.90|9.34|11.34|84.43|6.93||0||
 +
1.1.2014|Carbon dioxide tax|16.25|18.61|9.34|11.34|84.43|6.93||0||
 +
1.1.2015|Carbon dioxide tax|16.25|18.61|9.34|11.34|106.14|8.71||0||
 +
1.1.2011|Energy tax|||||||1.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2013|Energy tax|||||||4.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2014|Energy tax|||||||4.90|0|0.69|
 +
1.1.2015|Energy tax|||||||3.40|0|0.69|
 +
1.7.1984|Maintenance and supply security fees|0.72|0.39|0.39|0.32|1.48|||0||
 +
1.1.1997|Maintenance and supply security fees|0.68|0.35|0.35|0.28|1.18|0.084||0|0.013|
 +
1.1.1990|Oil pollution fees|0.28|0.031|0.031|0.037||||0||
 +
1.1.2005|Oil pollution fees|0.038|0.042|0.042|0.050||||0||
 +
1.1.2010|Oil pollution fees|0.113|0.126|0.126|0.150||||0||
 +
</t2b>
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+'''Taxes and fees for fuel and energy production<ref>Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/</ref>
 +
|---
 +
! Taxes and fees from !! Petrol (snt/l) !! Diesel (snt/l) !! Light fuel oil (snt/l) !! Heavy fuel oil (snt/kg) !! Coal (€/t) !! Natural gas (€/MWh) !! Peat (€/MWh)
 +
|----
 +
| 1.1.1990 || 21,53 || 16,82 || 0,34 || 0,34 || 2,69 || 0,17 || 0,34
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1991 || 26,57 || 17,49 || 0,35 || 0,35 || 2,83 || 0,18 || 0,35
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1992 || 28,26 || 17,49 || 0,35 || 0,35 || 2,83 || 0,18 || 0,35
 +
|---
 +
| 1.8.1992 || 31,62 || 17,49 || 0,35 || 0,35 || 2,83 || 0,18 || 0,35
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1993 || 39,52 || 19,17 || 1,41 || 1,12 || 5,61 || 0,35 || 0,70
 +
|---
 +
| 1.7.1993 || 39,52 || 16,65 || 1,41 || 1,12 || 5,61 || 0,35 || 0,70
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1994 || 40,05 || 17,29 || 2,05 || 1,98 || 11,30 || 1,09 || 0,35
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1995 || 45,12 || 27,50 || 3,02 || 3,12 || 19,53 || 0,94 || 0,59
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1996 || 51,85 || 27,50 || 3,02 || 3,12 || 19,53 || 0,94 || 0,59
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1997 || 51,85 || 27,50 || 4,88 || 3,72 || 28,42 || 1,19 || 0,71
 +
|----
 +
| 1.4.1997 || 51,85 || 27,50 || 4,88 || 3,72 || 28,42 || 1,19 || 0,71
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1998 || 55,22 || 30,02 || 5,50 || 4,34 || 33,40 || 1,40 || 0,82
 +
|---
 +
| 1.9.1998 || 55,22 || 30,02 || 6,37 || 5,40 || 41,37 || 1,73 || 1,51
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2003 || 58,08 || 31,59 || 6,71 || 5,68 || 43,52 || 1,82 || 1,59
 +
|---
 +
| 1.7.2005 || 58,08 || 31,59 || 6,71 || 5,68 || 43,52 || 1,82 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2007 || 58,08 || 31,59 || 6,71 || 5,68 || 43,52 || 1,82 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2008 || 62,02 || 36,05 || 8,35 || 6,42 || 49,32 || 2,016 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2011 || 62,02 || 36,05 || 15,70 || 18,51 || 126,91 || 8,94 || 1,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2012 || 64,36 || 46,60 || 15,70 || 18,51 || 126,91 || 8,940 || 1,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2013 || 64,36 || 46,60 || 15,99 || 18,93 || 131,53 || 11,38 || 4,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2014 || 66,61 || 49,31 || 15,99 || 18,93 || 131,53 || 11,38 || 4,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2015 || 66,61 || 49,31 || 15,99 || 18,93 || 153,24 || 15,36 || 3,40
 +
|---
 +
|colspan="9"| Energy content tax
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2011 || 50,36 || - || 7,70 || 8,79 || 54,54 || 3,00 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2012 || 50,36 || 30,70 || 7,70 || 8,79 || 54,54 || 3,00 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2013 || 50,36 || 30,70 || 6,65 || 7,59 || 47,10 || 4,45 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2015 || 50,36 || 30,70 || 6,65 || 7,59 || 47,10 || 6,65 || -
 +
|---
 +
|colspan="9"| Carbondioxide tax
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2011 || 11,66 || - || 8,00 || 9,72 || 72,37 || 5,94 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2012 || 14,00 || 15,90 || 8,00 || 9,72 || 72,37 || 5,94 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2013 || 14,00 || 15,90 || 9,34 || 11,34 || 84,43 || 6,93 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2014 || 16,25 || 18,61 || 9,34 || 11,34 || 84,43 || 6,93 || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2015 || 16,25 || 18,61 || 9,34 || 11,34 || 106,14 || 8,71 || -
 +
|---
 +
|colspan="9"| Energy tax
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2011 || - || - || - || - || - || - || 1,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2013 || - || - || - || - || - || - || 4,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2014 || - || - || - || - || - || - || 4,90
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2015 || - || - || - || - || - || - || 3,40
 +
|---
 +
|colspan="9"| Maintenance and supply sercurity fees
 +
|---
 +
| 1.7.1984 || 0,72 || 0,39 || 0,39 || 0,32 || 1,48 || - || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1997 || 0,68 || 0,35 || 0,35 || 0,28 || 1,18 || 0,084 || -
 +
|---
 +
|colspan="9"| Oil pollution fees
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.1990 || 0,28 || 0,031 || 0,031 || 0,037 || - || - || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2005 || 0,038 || 0,042 || 0,042 || 0,050 || - || - || -
 +
|---
 +
| 1.1.2010 || 0,113 || 0,126 || 0,126 || 0,150 || - || - || -
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
<rcode name="fuelTax" label="Initiate fuelTax" embed=1>
 +
library(OpasnetUtils)
 +
 
 +
fuelTaxRaw <- Ovariable("fuelTaxRaw", ddata = "Op_en4151.taxes_of_fuels")
 +
 
 +
fuelTax <- Ovariable(
 +
"fuelTax",
 +
dependencies = data.frame(Name = "fuelTaxRaw"),#, Ident = "Op_en4151/fuelTaxRaw"),
 +
formula = function(...) {
 +
#taxes <- fuelTaxRaw
 +
#taxes$Result <- as.numeric(as.character(taxes$Result))
 +
 +
#units <- c("c€/l","c€/l","c€/l","c€/kg","€/t","€/MWh","c€/kWh")
 +
#taxes$Units <- units
 +
 +
# convert units into €/MWh
 +
# energy densities/specific energies from
 +
# http://webserver.dmt.upm.es/~isidoro/bk3/c15/Fuel%20properties.pdf
 +
# and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
 +
conversion <- c(
 +
1/32.4*60*60/100,
 +
1/35.8*60*60/100,
 +
1/35.8*60*60/100,
 +
1/43*60*60/100,
 +
1/24/1000*60*60,
 +
1,
 +
1,
 +
1,
 +
10
 +
)
 +
fuels <- c("Petrol", "Diesel", "Light fuel oil", "Heavy fuel oil", "Coal", "Natural gas", "Peat", "Biofuel", "Electricity")
 +
conversion <- Ovariable(
 +
output = data.frame(
 +
Fuel = fuels,
 +
Result = conversion
 +
)
 +
)
 +
#taxes$Result <- taxes$Result * conversion
 +
taxes <- fuelTaxRaw * conversion
 +
 +
alias <- Ovariable(output = data.frame(
 +
Fuel = rep(fuels, c(0,0,1,4,0,2,0,2,0)),
 +
Fuel2 = c("Light oil", "Oil", "Crude oil", "Fuel oil", "Heavy oil", "Natural gas", "Gas", "Biofuel", "Bio")
 +
))
 +
taxes <- merge(taxes, alias, all.x = TRUE)
 +
temp <- as.character(taxes$Fuel2)
 +
temp[is.na(temp)] <- as.character(taxes$Fuel[is.na(temp)])
 +
taxes$Fuel <- temp
 +
taxes$Fuel2 <- NULL
 +
 +
taxes <- taxes[!is.na(result(taxes)),]
 +
taxes <- taxes[!taxes$Tax %in% c("Energy content tax", "Carbon dioxide tax"),]
 +
#taxes <- oapply(taxes, NULL, sum, "Tax")
 +
taxes$Time  <- as.POSIXct(strptime(as.character(taxes$Time), format = "%d.%m.%Y"))
 +
 +
return(taxes)
 +
}
 +
)
 +
 
 +
objects.store(fuelTaxRaw, fuelTax)
 
</rcode>
 
</rcode>
 +
<noinclude>
 +
===Data not used===
  
−
This page includes prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of [http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehkh/2009/04/index.html Statistics Finland] In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!
+
This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.  
  
−
Prices of energy in Finland in Stat.<ref name="statfi"></ref>
+
Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [http://ekqvist.goeuropeinfo.com/rbloggerqvist/?p=199] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. {{comment|# |Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions.|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] ([[User talk:Jouni|talk]]) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC)}}
  
−
=== Data ===
 
  
−
====Price of district heating====
+
{| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed"
 +
! Show details
 +
|----
 +
|
 +
'''Price of district heating
  
 
Table 1. Price of District Heating by Type of Consumer<sup>1)</sup>, €/MWh
 
Table 1. Price of District Heating by Type of Consumer<sup>1)</sup>, €/MWh
Line 310: Line 579:
 
|}
 
|}
  
−
====Price of electricity====
+
'''Price of electricity
  
 
Table 3. Price of Electricity by Type of Consumer<sup>1)</sup>, c/kWh (Prices include electrical energy, the distribution of electricity, and taxes.)
 
Table 3. Price of Electricity by Type of Consumer<sup>1)</sup>, c/kWh (Prices include electrical energy, the distribution of electricity, and taxes.)
Line 728: Line 997:
 
8. Medium-scale industry, 2-shift, 10 000 MWh/a (whereof 3 130 MWh by night), 2 500 kW, 4 000 h
 
8. Medium-scale industry, 2-shift, 10 000 MWh/a (whereof 3 130 MWh by night), 2 500 kW, 4 000 h
  
−
==== Prices of domestic fuels ====
+
'''Prices of domestic fuels
 +
 
 
Table 4. Consumer Prices of Hard Coal, Natural Gas and Domestic Fuels in Heat Production (VAT not included)
 
Table 4. Consumer Prices of Hard Coal, Natural Gas and Domestic Fuels in Heat Production (VAT not included)
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
Line 1,376: Line 1,646:
 
Source:Foreign Trade Statistics, Gasum Oy, Association of Finnish Peat Industries, Statistics Finland/ Environment and Energy
 
Source:Foreign Trade Statistics, Gasum Oy, Association of Finnish Peat Industries, Statistics Finland/ Environment and Energy
  
−
====Prices of liquid fuels====
+
Cost of bioenergy is dependent on the form<ref>[http://www.lut.fi/documents/10633/70751/LUT-Vision-and-initial-feasibility-of-a-recarbonised-Finnish-energy-system-for-2050.pdf Recarbonised Finnish Energy System], Christian Breyer, Michael Child</ref>
 +
* Waste is assumed to be free
 +
* Agricultural residues have little market value currently and will likely remain half the price of energy wood
 +
* Estimated biomass price is 22 €/MWh in 2050 (plus 5-11€/MWh handling)
 +
** Stumpage price currently 2 €/MWh
 +
** Price to customer currently 9-23 €/MWh*
 +
** Stricter sustainability criteria could raise this to about 50 €/MWh*
 +
* Energy wood price highly unlikely to exceed 50 €/MWh in 2050
 +
* Likely to be convergence between the price of energy wood and the price of pulpwood (stumpage price currently about 12 €/MWh)
 +
 
 +
'''Prices of liquid fuels
  
 
Table 5. Consumer Prices of Liquid Fuels (includes VAT)<sup>1)</sup>
 
Table 5. Consumer Prices of Liquid Fuels (includes VAT)<sup>1)</sup>
Line 1,784: Line 2,064:
 
<sup>1)</sup> Motor gasoline, diesel oil and light fuel oil: weighted average of the prices on the 15th of the month in six localities (Helsinki, Mikkeli, Oulu, Rovaniemi, Seinäjoki and Turku).Heavy fuel oil: national monthly average.
 
<sup>1)</sup> Motor gasoline, diesel oil and light fuel oil: weighted average of the prices on the 15th of the month in six localities (Helsinki, Mikkeli, Oulu, Rovaniemi, Seinäjoki and Turku).Heavy fuel oil: national monthly average.
 
Source: Finnish Oil and Gas Federation
 
Source: Finnish Oil and Gas Federation
 +
|}
  
 
=== Unit ===
 
=== Unit ===
Line 1,914: Line 2,195:
  
 
<references/>
 
<references/>
 +
</noinclude>

Latest revision as of 12:15, 10 November 2015


Question

What are prices of fuel used in heat production in own heating systems in apartments and in plants in Finland?

Answer

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Prices of fuels in heat production without tax.

An example code for fetching and running the ovariable.

+ Show code

Rationale

This page contains prices for electricity, district heating, liquid fuels and consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and domestic fuels in heat production in Finland. all data is based on knowledge of Statistics Finland In the end of data section there will be also data for maintenance and investment costs!!

This code calculates the price of fuels including tax.

+ Show code

Prices of fuels without tax

A previous version was based on several info sources [1]. However, this resulted in inconsistent prices between fuels. Now the table is simplified and made more robust using IEA estimates VTT-R-03704-14_YDINPAP_(1) page 8, with the cost of accuracy. There should be an expert panel discussing the interdependencies of fuel prices to get the correct order.

Fuel prices(€ /MWh)
ObsFuel198519952005201520252035204520552065Description
1Coal8.59.4113.78201515151515
2Gas9.111.616.242.94040404040
3Natural gas9.111.616.242.94040404040Same as gas.
4Oil14.32532525461687582
5Crude oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
6Fuel oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
7Heavy oil14.32532525461687582Same as oil.
8Light oil162835555764727986Slightly higher than oil.
9Bio91011212835455776
10Biofuel91011212835455765Same as bio.
11Peat6.689.8172128354550
12Electricity404040404255586065
13Heat30.830.840.453.996363656568
14Cooling30.830.840.453.996363656568Same as heat

All prices are in 2015 euros.

Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Light oil and Bio/Biofuel and Peat data from Statistics Finland[1]. Bio/Biofuel stands for wood chips.

Oil prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration[2]. All values converted first to 2015 dollars (inflation correction) and then to 2015 euros using the current (21.7.2015) exchange ratio of 1 $ = 0.923 €. Price per barrel then converted to price per MWh presuming that the energy released by burning one barrel is about 5.8 x 106 BTU = 1.7 MWh, U.S. Internal Revenue Service[3].

Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Coal, Gas/Natural Gas, Oil, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Heavy oil and Light oil from U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040" [4]. CAGR for Bio/Biofuel and Peat estimated to be 2 %, based on the price history.

Price of electricity [2].D↷

District heating data is based on the price for an apartment building (volume 10 000 m3, energy need 450 MWh/a). Data from Statistics Finland [3]. We assume that the price of district cooling is the same (although district cooling has been available only for a few years).

Uncertainties are assumed in the same way for all fuels: a certain percentage up and down from the best estimate, varying by year. The following uncertainties were used: 2025 5 %, 2035 10 %, 2045 15 %, 2055 20 %, 2065 30 %. It should be noted that uncertainties are different for different fuels, but we were unable to estimate fuel-specific uncertainties.

+ Show code

Taxes for different fuels

Taxes and fees for fuel and energy production[5]
Taxes and fees from Petrol (snt/l) Diesel (snt/l) Light fuel oil (snt/l) Heavy fuel oil (snt/kg) Coal (€/t) Natural gas (€/MWh) Peat (€/MWh)
1.1.1990 21,53 16,82 0,34 0,34 2,69 0,17 0,34
1.1.1991 26,57 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.1.1992 28,26 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.8.1992 31,62 17,49 0,35 0,35 2,83 0,18 0,35
1.1.1993 39,52 19,17 1,41 1,12 5,61 0,35 0,70
1.7.1993 39,52 16,65 1,41 1,12 5,61 0,35 0,70
1.1.1994 40,05 17,29 2,05 1,98 11,30 1,09 0,35
1.1.1995 45,12 27,50 3,02 3,12 19,53 0,94 0,59
1.1.1996 51,85 27,50 3,02 3,12 19,53 0,94 0,59
1.1.1997 51,85 27,50 4,88 3,72 28,42 1,19 0,71
1.4.1997 51,85 27,50 4,88 3,72 28,42 1,19 0,71
1.1.1998 55,22 30,02 5,50 4,34 33,40 1,40 0,82
1.9.1998 55,22 30,02 6,37 5,40 41,37 1,73 1,51
1.1.2003 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 1,59
1.7.2005 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 -
1.1.2007 58,08 31,59 6,71 5,68 43,52 1,82 -
1.1.2008 62,02 36,05 8,35 6,42 49,32 2,016 -
1.1.2011 62,02 36,05 15,70 18,51 126,91 8,94 1,90
1.1.2012 64,36 46,60 15,70 18,51 126,91 8,940 1,90
1.1.2013 64,36 46,60 15,99 18,93 131,53 11,38 4,90
1.1.2014 66,61 49,31 15,99 18,93 131,53 11,38 4,90
1.1.2015 66,61 49,31 15,99 18,93 153,24 15,36 3,40
Energy content tax
1.1.2011 50,36 - 7,70 8,79 54,54 3,00 -
1.1.2012 50,36 30,70 7,70 8,79 54,54 3,00 -
1.1.2013 50,36 30,70 6,65 7,59 47,10 4,45 -
1.1.2015 50,36 30,70 6,65 7,59 47,10 6,65 -
Carbondioxide tax
1.1.2011 11,66 - 8,00 9,72 72,37 5,94 -
1.1.2012 14,00 15,90 8,00 9,72 72,37 5,94 -
1.1.2013 14,00 15,90 9,34 11,34 84,43 6,93 -
1.1.2014 16,25 18,61 9,34 11,34 84,43 6,93 -
1.1.2015 16,25 18,61 9,34 11,34 106,14 8,71 -
Energy tax
1.1.2011 - - - - - - 1,90
1.1.2013 - - - - - - 4,90
1.1.2014 - - - - - - 4,90
1.1.2015 - - - - - - 3,40
Maintenance and supply sercurity fees
1.7.1984 0,72 0,39 0,39 0,32 1,48 - -
1.1.1997 0,68 0,35 0,35 0,28 1,18 0,084 -
Oil pollution fees
1.1.1990 0,28 0,031 0,031 0,037 - - -
1.1.2005 0,038 0,042 0,042 0,050 - - -
1.1.2010 0,113 0,126 0,126 0,150 - - -

+ Show code

Data not used

This section contains data that is important but not relevant to the model's calculations, so they were never used in the calculations. This includes the price of district heating, types of energy consumer by building and prices of electricity and more accurate data of the prices fuels over the past years.

Linear Programming for the Malmquist Productivity Growth Index [4] is a method to make uncertain prediction into the future based on existing trend data. --# : Maybe this should be used for fuel price predictions. --Jouni (talk) 12:15, 10 November 2015 (UTC)


Unit

€/MWh

Summary

All results are averages of year 2009

Price of district heating by type of consumer (€/MWh)

Type of Consumer
Detached house Semidetached house (rivitalo) Apartment building, small Apartment building Apartment building, large
Year 2009 av. 65.58 61.21 60.28 58.27 55.85

Price of electricity (c/kWh)

Household Electric Heating
Flat Detached House Direct Accumulating
Year 2009 av. 14.81 12.52 10.25 9.51


Prices of domestic fuel

Hard Coal Natural Gas Milled peat Sod Peat Forest Chips Wood pellet
On the Coast Delivered Delivered Delivered Consumer price (incl. VAT) Index
€/t €/MWh €/1000 m3 (0° C) €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh c/kWh 2005=100
Year 2009 av. 111.73 15.78 270.65 27.07 10.55 13.44 17.75 5.15 162.87

Price of liquid fuel

Light fuel oil Heavy fuel oil
c/l €/MWh c/kg €/MWh
Year 2009 av. 59.9 59.7 46.6 40.8

See also

Helsinki energy decision 2015
In English
Assessment Main page | Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data Building stock in Helsinki | Helsinki energy production | Helsinki energy consumption | Energy use of buildings | Emission factors for burning processes | Prices of fuels in heat production | External cost
Models Building model | Energy balance | Health impact assessment | Economic impacts
Related assessments Climate change policies in Helsinki | Climate change policies and health in Kuopio | Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 | Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja | Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

References

  1. ↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland). List of tables under the topic "Price of energy". http://pxweb2.stat.fi/database/statfin/ene/ehi/ehi_fi.asp
  2. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_SPT_S1_A.htm
  3. ↑ Internal revenue service: Nonconventional Source Fuel Credit, Inflation Adjustment Factor, and Reference Price http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-99-18.pdf
  4. ↑ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - With Projections to 2040. 2015. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf
  5. ↑ Tilastokeskus (Statistics Finland): Energian hinnat 2015, 1. vuosineljännes. (Energy prices 2015, 1. quarter) http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehi/2015/01/
  6. ↑ Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, Christian Breyer, Michael Child
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