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The SHeffield ELicitation Framework (SHELF) is a package of documents, templates and software to carry out elicitation of probability distributions for uncertain quantities from a group of experts. The SHELF software is written in R language. Notably, SHELF is used in an online tool MATCH for expert elicitation.
Elicitation is increasingly important for quantifying expert knowledge in situations where hard data are sparse. This is often the context in which difficult policy decisions are made. It is generally important to elicit from a group of experts, rather than a single expert, in order to synthesise the range of knowledge and opinions of the expert community. (However, SHELF may be used for a single expert with only trivial modification.) By reading and carefully following the SHELF documentation, it is possible for an untrained facilitator to carry out competent elicitation.
- SHELF Main Page
- MATCH tool for expert elicitation
- Environmental modelling and software often contains articles about expert elicitation
- MUCM Managing uncertainty in complex models · Software and R packages
- Related links (by Jeremy Oakley)
- Eliciting multivariate probability distributions