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| − | To assess the sensitivity of the IPD predictions produced by the epidemiological model (assuming complete replacement)
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| − | effects of 24 alternative scenarios regarding the role of certain serotypes in PCV10 and PCV13 were calculated, separately for <5 and 5+ year olds.
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| − | The results, shown in the table below, can be summarized as follows:
| + | NOTE: This page did not work with the link as there already was a Opasnet page called "sensitivity analysis". |
| − | | + | These contents are moved to "pcv model sensitivity" |
| − | '''For <5 year olds:'''
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| − | * Inclusion of direct effects for 19A in PCV10 decreses the advantage of PCV13 from the default level of approximately 30 cases by 15.
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| − | * Exclusion of 3 from PCV13 decreses the PCV13 advantage by approximately 2 cases. Inclusion of 6A in PCV10 decreses the PCV13 advantage by 4 cases.
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| − | '''For 5+ year olds:'''
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| − | * Exclusion of serotype 3 from PCV13 will decrease its advantage by 130 cases, practically eliminating the advantage.
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| − | * Inclusion of 6A in pcv10 will inrease the PCV13-advantage by 30 (as 6A is not a good vaccine type for adults) and assuming that 6C carriage proportion (of 6AC) is 50% (instead of the default level of 33%) will increase it by 10.
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| − | ''Columns of the table:''
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| − | _
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| − | 3inP13 = inclusion of serotype 3 in PCV13
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| − | 6Cprop = assumed proportion of 6C carriers among the 6A/C carriers
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| − | 6AinP10 = inclusion of serotype 6A in PCV10
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| − | 19AinP13 = inclusion of serotype 19A in PCV10
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| − | _
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| − | <5_P10 IPD among <5 yo:s after PCV10 (IPD=99 when no vaccination)
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| − | <5_P13 IPD among <5 yo:s after PCV13
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| − | <5_Diff Additional decrease in IPD due to PCV13
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| − | _
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| − | 5+_P10 IPD among 5+ yo:s after PCV10 (IPD=687 when no vaccination)
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| − | 5+_P13 IPD among 5+ yo:s after PCV13
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| − | 5+_Diff Additional decrease in IPD due to PCV13
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| − | ''Levels of protection considered:''
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| − | 0 = no protection
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| − | dir = direct efficacy against disease (*), no indirect effects
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| − | (*) 80% coverage, 10% waning per year, 80% efficacy against
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| − | disease for newly vaccinated
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| − | full = 100% overall effectiveness
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| − | 3inP13 6Cprop 6AinP10 19AinP10 <5_P10 <5_P13 '''<5_Diff''' 5+_P10 5+_P13 '''5+_Diff'''
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| − | ------ ------ ------- -------- -------- ----------
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| − | 0 33% 0 0 41 71 30 133 115 -18
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| − | 0 33% 0 dir 55 70 15 133 114 -19
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| − | 0 33% full 0 42 71 29 92 114 22
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| − | 0 33% full dir 59 71 12 92 114 22
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| − | 0 50% 0 0 41 72 31 133 137 4
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| − | 0 50% 0 dir 55 72 17 133 137 4
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| − | 0 50% full 0 45 72 27 114 137 23
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| − | 0 50% full dir 61 72 11 115 137 22
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| − | _
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| − | dir 33% 0 0 41 73 32 133 115 -18
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| − | dir 33% 0 dir 55 73 18 133 115 -18
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| − | dir 33% full 0 42 73 31 92 115 23
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| − | dir 50% 0 0 41 74 33 133 138 5
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| − | dir 50% 0 dir 55 74 19 133 137 4
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| − | dir 50% full 0 45 75 30 114 137 23
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| − | dir 50% full dir 61 74 13 115 138 23
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| − | dir 33% full dir 59 73 14 92 114 22
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| − | _
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| − | full 33% 0 0 41 74 33 133 249 116
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| − | full 33% 0 dir 55 74 19 133 249 116
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| − | full 33% full 0 42 74 32 92 249 157
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| − | full 33% full dir 59 74 15 92 249 157
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| − | full 50% 0 0 41 75 34 133 267 134
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| − | full 50% 0 dir 55 75 20 133 267 134
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| − | full 50% full 0 45 75 30 114 267 153
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| − | full 50% full dir 61 75 14 115 267 152
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