Difference between revisions of "Talk:City-level climate policy model"

Revision as of 21:18, 18 April 2013

Application for climate change and environmental policy

Application to SYKE and UEF, deadline 19.4.2013.

Introduction

Climate mitigation policy has a dilemma. It has been widely accepted by citizens and politicians that large and effective actions must be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Still, the international agreements achieved have been much weaker than hoped for, the most dramatic disappointment being the Copenhagen climate summit ##nimi? 2009. One important reason for this under-productivity is the fact that the societal decision making methods are not able to absorb all available information, and that scientific community is unable to produce the information in a useful format for decision making. #REF Mikko? As an example of the latter, Al... from IPCC has said that ."our task is to show facts, not give policy recommendations" #REF

The proposed work aims to reduce the gap between the information need by decision makers and the information supply by experts and other people. This is done by utilising novel impact assessment methods, tools, and participatory approaches. The focus is on the decision support, i.e. on work, practices, and information needed to give a rich, scientifically sound understanding to decision makers about the options they have and the estimated impacts of these options.

The focus of the work is at the municipality level. This is because many climate actions are taken locally, and also many of the effects of these actions (e.g. transport solutions, urban structure, fine particle emissions, or green spaces) also affect locally.

Objectives of research

Objectives:

• Evaluate the applicability and appeal of international climate policies on local level.
• Understand the reasons for appeal or non-appeal of climate policies by different players in the society.

Materials and methods

The work is divided into two main lines. First, the climate, health, and other impacts of the policies considered are assessed using quantitative modelling and decision analysis. Second, decision makers and stakeholders are interviewed and invited to participate in real-life case studies about climate-related decision making processes in municipalities. These decisions may be direct climate policies such as energy efficiency plans, or other policies that also are expected to have important climate impacts, such as urban planning (which affects heating options and transportation needs of new building areas).

The work is based on previous achievements, many of which come from my research team in THL. All methods, tools, and practices are openly available for any new projects. These capabilities are briefly described, with indications how they are important in the current research plan.

Existing models and results

Claih academy project (2009-2012) studied health and climate impacts of building structures and heating options in Finland. It produced a model to estimate greenhouse gas and fine particle emissions, especially from detached houses with a house-level heating system. Urgenche EU project (2011-2014) has produced two models, a city-level building stock model for estimating energy needs after different energy policies, and an energy balance model describing the total energy production and consumption of all sectors in a city and estimating energy balances, taking account of different feedback loops. There is also a health impact assessment model from Tekaisu project for estimating numbers of cases of disease, life expectancies, and disability-adjusted life years due to exposures to environmental pollutants.

Opasnet web-workspace

The models described are running at a web-workspace called Opasnet. It is maintained by THL, and it is available for any project producing information for decision support, also outside THL. Opasnet has built-in modelling capabilities using R statistical software and a versatile collection of practical functions designed for open online collaboration and shared models. In addition, it has a wiki for storing descriptions of the topics assessed, models used, and results obtained. It also has flexible tools for participants to comment and criticise the content, update content based on new information, and discuss the topics. Opasnet also has a flexible database for storing model inputs and outputs. Opasnet can also be used to disseminate results, once the discussion has reached a resolution. For further details, see http://en.opasnet.org.

Open assessment method

Open assessment is a method for decision support. It contains practices for impact assessment, but also for stakeholder participation or organising discussions. It is based on six principles that guide the work. They are briefly listed here.

• • Explicit objectives by the decision makers are a prerequisite for successful open assessment. The objectives are used as the key source of information when designing the impact assessment needed, and also evaluating the progress of the work.
  • Causality between decision actions and impacts of interest is the key to understand which option is more preferable than another one.
  • Shared information objects mean, in practice, web pages that each deal with a single topic or part of an assessment. These web pages are used as parts of assessment models (for computing) and means to collect and disseminate information. This is also a way to manage an assessment and the related discussion, as the structure of an issue gives the structure for the related assessment, and the assessment work is about filling in the empty slots.
  • Criticism in this context means that anything in an assessment or another decision support work can be criticised, and the criticism will be appropriately handled. This means that if valid, it changes the contents of an assessment and possibly conclusions; and if found invalid, the reasoning why the criticism should not affect the outcome is documented.
  • Re-usability of information and models. The structure of assessments, Opasnet website, and the work done is based on the idea that any information should be as easily as possible re-usable in similar or analogous situations.
  • Openness of participation and information is a necessity to ensure the possibility for criticism and re-usability. The default is to be open from the beginning, and e.g. closed data sets are exceptions that are specifically reasoned.

Open assessment also has guidance for evaluation and management of the decision support work. The method contains criteria for good assessments (quality of content, applicability, and efficiency), and the key idea is to continuously follow and evaluate the assessment work against these criteria. If problems are found, management steps are taken to focus the work or find better ways of working.

Key areas: energy production and consumption. Traffic. Urban structure and buildings.

Yva directive update as legislative framework: assessments as basis for decisions. Climate adaptatiion stratwgy of finland? Maybe not if focus is on mitigation. But it can be both.

Previous publications. Pragmatic knowledge services. Tekaisu method (in finnish). Sota of env health & food.

Opasnet for

• modelling the impacts of climate policies
• organising views
• collecting comments and criticism

Expertise and facilities

Memberships: yvad group. Climate adaptation. Climate forum. Tekaisu sab. PI of THL and WP leader in Urgenche project.

Experience in writing statements about legislation (YVA, Ympäristönsuojelulaki).

Opasnet web-workspace for actual work.

HINKU forum is a potential collaborator.

The work is based on quantitative modelling of key impacts of climate policies.

I have capabilities to assess policies related to transportation, energy production and use, and urban structure. The impacts included could be greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution emissions, and cost. Other impacts could be included, depending on potential collaboration to be developed in SYKE or UEF.

Expected results and impacts

Budget

One doctoral student for policy modelling

20 k€ per year for travel and other expenses.