Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Uncertainty refers not only to statistical uncertainty. The typology used in INTARESE builds on an adapted version of the Walker & Harremoës framework.

One dimension of uncertainties is the location of uncertainties (where the uncertainty is located). For most models it is applicable to distinguish between:

• context
• model structure
• inputs
• parameters
• model outcome (result)

For the other dimension of uncertainties it is distinguished between three levels of uncertainties:

• statistical uncertainty (known outcomes, known probabilities)
• scenario uncertainty (known outcomes, unknown probabilities)
• identified ignorance (unknown outcomes, unknown probabilities).