Difference between revisions of "Changing ambient UVR and future skin cancer in London, Rome and Helsinki: melanoma skin cancer (CMM)"

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The international mechanism for protecting the ozone layer is the “Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer” that came into force in 1989 and its subsequent amendments (UNEP 2006). The production of the most harmful ozone depleting substances (ODS) are now phased out worldwide. The atmospheric concentrations of these gases is anticipated to decline over the next decades (IPCC 2005). As a result stratospheric ozone is expected to increase and, subsequently, ambient UVR is anticipated to decrease. Hence, a decrease in melanoma skin cancer is expected, but other factors may play an important role as well such as the ageing of the population.  
 
The international mechanism for protecting the ozone layer is the “Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer” that came into force in 1989 and its subsequent amendments (UNEP 2006). The production of the most harmful ozone depleting substances (ODS) are now phased out worldwide. The atmospheric concentrations of these gases is anticipated to decline over the next decades (IPCC 2005). As a result stratospheric ozone is expected to increase and, subsequently, ambient UVR is anticipated to decrease. Hence, a decrease in melanoma skin cancer is expected, but other factors may play an important role as well such as the ageing of the population.  
  
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==Question==
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==Scope==
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What is imocat of the malignant melanoma skin cancer
 
  
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===Purpose===
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'''Description'''
  
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    * Purpose defines the specific information need of the decision-making and the research question that is asked.
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We explore the effects of changing exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on melanoma skin cancer, accounting for the recovery of the ozone layer due to decreasing emission of ODS and future emissions of CH4 and N20 (IPCC 2005). We also account for future demographic change
  
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===Boundaries===
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[[File:Summary_report_fig_1_0.jpg|400]]
  
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    * Boundaries define which parts of the reality are taken into the assessment and which are excluded within
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'''Scenario(s) and Type of Assessment'''
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      spatial, temporal and other dimensions.
 
  
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===Scenarios===
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Type of assessment: prognostic.
  
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    * Scenarios define particular conditions that are of interest irrespective whether they describe
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UVR scenarios: IPCC (2000) SRES A2 and B1: future population & emissions/concentrations of ODS, CH4 and N2O.
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      reality or not (e.g. what-if scenarios).
 
  
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===Intended users===
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SRES population scenarios were downscaled from the regional to the city-level.
  
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    * Intended users are those for whom the assessment is made.
 
  
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===Participants===
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{|{{prettytable}}
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{| style="width:35%; height:100px"
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!'''IPCC Senario'''
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!'''SRES-A2'''
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!'''SRES-B1'''
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|-----
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| '''ODS Emission'''
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| Decreasing trend
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Same B1
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| Decreasing trend
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same as A2
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|-----
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| '''CH<sub>4</sub> Emission'''
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| Higher Increase
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| Lower Increase
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|-----
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| '''N<sub>2</sub> Emission'''
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| Higher Increase
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| Lower Increase
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|-----
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| '''Population'''
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| Higher Growth
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| Lower growth
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|-----
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| '''Age Structure'''
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| Slower Aging
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| Higher Aging
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|}
  
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    * Participants are those who may participate in the making of the assessment.
 
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      The minimum group of people for a successful assessment is always described.
 
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      If some groups must be excluded, this must be explicitly motivated.
 
  
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==Definition==
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'''Geographical and temporal scope:'''
  
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Upload a causal diagram and change the right name here.
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Study area(s): City of Helsinki, Greater London, City of Rome
  
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[[image:Causal diagram.PNG|thumb|Add a legend for you diagram.]]
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Populations: 5-year age groups up to 85+; males/females
  
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===Decision variables===
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Timeframe: 2001, 2030, 2050
  
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    * Decision variables: decisions that are considered.
 
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===Indicators===
 
  
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    * Indicators: outcome variables of interest.
 
  
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===Value variables===
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'''Environmental and health factors:'''
  
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    * Value variables: value judgements (usually about indicators).
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Source: emissions of ODS (decreasing), N2O (increasing) and CH4 (increasing) ,affecting ozone fields
  
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===Other variables===
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Environmental hazard: ambient UVR (erythemal dose).
  
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    * Other variables: any variables that link to the causal network and are within the boundaries of the assessment.
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Other risk factor: age.
  
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===Analyses===
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Health outcomes: melanoma skin cancer (CMM)  incidence/mortality (rates)
  
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    * Analyses: statistical and other analyses that contain two or more variables, e.g. optimizing.
 
  
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===Indices===
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'''Stakeholders:'''
  
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    * Indices: lists of particular locations along spatial, temporal, or other dimensions.
 
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==Result==
 
  
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    * Results of indicators and assessment-specific analyses.  
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{|{{prettytable}}
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! '''Stakeholder'''
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! '''Interest'''
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! '''Role'''
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|-----
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| Health authorities, policy/decision makers and health promotion agencies
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| Healthy population
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| Issue recommendations on solar exposure
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|-----
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| Health care providers
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| Disease prevention, treatment
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| Treatment and advice particularly to groups at risk
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|-----
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| Societies (cancer, osteoporosis, etc)
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| Support member interests
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| Issue public information
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|-----
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| Advocacy groups
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| Protecting vulnerable groups
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| Reduce health impacts related to UVR.
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|-----
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| Researchers
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| Research
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| Further knowledge of UVR-related health effects
  
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===Results===
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|}
  
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===Conclusions===
 
  
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    * Conclusions are based on the results, given the scope.
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==Assessment methods==
 +
 
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==Results==
 +
 
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==Appraisal== 
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==

Revision as of 12:28, 17 August 2011

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It is widely accepted that ambient UVR is carcinogenic (Lucas et al 2006). This assessment will focus on the impact on malignant melanoma skin cancer (CMM).

The international mechanism for protecting the ozone layer is the “Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer” that came into force in 1989 and its subsequent amendments (UNEP 2006). The production of the most harmful ozone depleting substances (ODS) are now phased out worldwide. The atmospheric concentrations of these gases is anticipated to decline over the next decades (IPCC 2005). As a result stratospheric ozone is expected to increase and, subsequently, ambient UVR is anticipated to decrease. Hence, a decrease in melanoma skin cancer is expected, but other factors may play an important role as well such as the ageing of the population.

Scope

Description

We explore the effects of changing exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on melanoma skin cancer, accounting for the recovery of the ozone layer due to decreasing emission of ODS and future emissions of CH4 and N20 (IPCC 2005). We also account for future demographic change

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Scenario(s) and Type of Assessment

Type of assessment: prognostic.

UVR scenarios: IPCC (2000) SRES A2 and B1: future population & emissions/concentrations of ODS, CH4 and N2O.

SRES population scenarios were downscaled from the regional to the city-level.


IPCC Senario SRES-A2 SRES-B1
ODS Emission Decreasing trend

Same B1

Decreasing trend

same as A2

CH4 Emission Higher Increase Lower Increase
N2 Emission Higher Increase Lower Increase
Population Higher Growth Lower growth
Age Structure Slower Aging Higher Aging


Geographical and temporal scope:

Study area(s): City of Helsinki, Greater London, City of Rome

Populations: 5-year age groups up to 85+; males/females

Timeframe: 2001, 2030, 2050


Environmental and health factors:

Source: emissions of ODS (decreasing), N2O (increasing) and CH4 (increasing) ,affecting ozone fields

Environmental hazard: ambient UVR (erythemal dose).

Other risk factor: age.

Health outcomes: melanoma skin cancer (CMM) incidence/mortality (rates)


Stakeholders:


Stakeholder Interest Role
Health authorities, policy/decision makers and health promotion agencies Healthy population Issue recommendations on solar exposure
Health care providers Disease prevention, treatment Treatment and advice particularly to groups at risk
Societies (cancer, osteoporosis, etc) Support member interests Issue public information
Advocacy groups Protecting vulnerable groups Reduce health impacts related to UVR.
Researchers Research Further knowledge of UVR-related health effects


Assessment methods

Results

Appraisal

See also

References

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