Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management 2013"

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|| 14.1.|| 9-11|| S25|| Marjo ||Lecture:  Case climate change
 
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|| 16.1.|| 9-11|| S22 || Tommi ||Lecture:  Case metal mines
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|| 16.1.|| 9-11|| S22 || Mikko ||Lecture:  Case Puijo forest management
 
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|| 21.1.|| 9-11|| MC2 || Jouni, Mikko, Marjo ||Method session:  Assessments and variables, data storage. Homework given.
 
|| 21.1.|| 9-11|| MC2 || Jouni, Mikko, Marjo ||Method session:  Assessments and variables, data storage. Homework given.

Revision as of 13:30, 3 January 2013

This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management.

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES in 2011

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Aims of the course

To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet.

The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.

The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): Yes

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen    
  • Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 60 h
  • Calculation exercises 9 h
  • Independent assessment study
    • Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
    • Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
  • Web-Based Learning 30 %

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercises

Evaluation

Acceptable completion of the following tasks (ideas to be drafted further):

  • A structured discussion based on written material.
  • A functional code with ovariables.
  • An evaluation of a part of an assessment or a decision process.
  • Computer-class exercises.
  • Decision table of an assessment based on written material.
  • A variable page as a part of an assessment.
  • A moderated discussion or a page development.

Content and schedule

These are the available slots. The aim is to have ca. 40 hours of lectures and seminars, and otherwise work on group and individual tasks.

DARM course schedule 2013
Date Time Classroom Lecturer Topic
8.1. 9-11 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Lecture: Introduction, overview, course tasks. Material: Mikko's thesis + questions
10.1. 9-11 S22 Mikko Lecture: Review of IA methods and overall concept (risk management overview) Literature homework checked.
10.1. 12-14 S22 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 1. New homework given (basic reading of decision analysis)
11.1. 9-11 S23 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 2.
14.1. 9-11 S25 Marjo Lecture: Case climate change
16.1. 9-11 S22 Mikko Lecture: Case Puijo forest management
18.1. 9-11 S24 Tommi Lecture: Case metal mines
21.1. 9-11 MC2 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Method session: Assessments and variables, data storage. Homework given.
22.1. 12-14 MC1 Mikko Method session: Assessment scoping and decision options.
23.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Discussion exercise: roles, participation, who has important information about topic or decision
24.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Organising of contributions (finding questions, finding rationale, finding answers and conclusions)
24.1. 12-14 MC4 Jouni Method session: Structured discussion
25.1. 9-11 MC4 Jouni Method session: Modelling and R codes
25.1. 12-14 MC4 Mikko Method session: Evaluation and management of the assessment
28.1. 12-14 MC4 Jouni Exercise: Assessment description?
29.1. 12-14 MC9 Mikko Exercise: Data upload?
31.1. 9-11 MC1 Marjo Exercise:
1.2. 9-11 MC2 Jouni Exercise:
4.2. 9-11 MC9 Mikko Exercise:
7.2. 9-11 MC9 Marjo Exercise:
11.2. 9-11 MC2 Jouni Exercise:
12.2. 9-11 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Seminar: Group work presentations: Minera A, B
12.2. 12-14 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Seminar: Group work presentations: Urgenche A, B
13.2. 9-11 S32 Mikko Method session: Evaluation of exercises
13.2. 12-14 S26 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Method session: Course evaluation and feedback
32 h lectures, 14 h exercises, 4 h seminars.
MC classrooms are computer classrooms.

This is the content of 2011 course, and it will be updated! Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Pages to improve during the course:

  • Urgenche
    • [[]]
    • City assessments
    • Land use of cities
  • Minera
    • [[]]
    • Method pages
  • Tekaisu?


Introduction to the course

  • introduction to decision analysis: slides

Introduction to risk management

Introduction to using Opasnet

Introduction to probability theory: Slides


Decision analysis. slides

  • Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done


Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides

  • Computer modeling
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions
    • Normal distribution is not the only option


Calculation exercise: slides

Probabilistic models slides


Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R


Overall view of different models slides

  • Why do we do modelling?
  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).


Decision making under uncertainty

Calculation exercise.


Risk management: State-of-the-art?


Risk management: a social learning perspective

  • lecture: slides
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
  • Additional material: heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment


Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management


Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action


Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides

  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
  • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents


Final seminar:

  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements User:Jouni
Case study exercises: content User:Jouni
Case study exercises: technical
Calculation exercises

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

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