Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management 2013"

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:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see [[Decision analysis and risk management]].
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[[Category:Decision_analysis]]
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[[Category:Risk_management]]
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[[Category:Open_assessment]]
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[[Category:YMAL lectures 2013]]
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[[Category:Open assessment training]]
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[[Category:DARM exercise]]
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[[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
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{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
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:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see [[Decision analysis and risk management]]. On this page, there was previously a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
  
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<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES in 2011]</big>
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<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big> (the same link also contains 2011 lectures).
  
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[[Category:Decision_analysis]] [[Category:Risk_management]] [[Category:Open_assessment]] [[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 
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{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 
 
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
 
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
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NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
 
  
 
== Aims of the course ==
 
== Aims of the course ==
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* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment  
 
* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment  
 
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
 
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
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* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  Yes
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* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  in 2011 Yes, in 2013 unclear.
  
 
'''Contacts
 
'''Contacts
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'''Teaching / Learning Methods
 
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
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* Lectures and discussions 60 h
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* Lectures and discussions 14 h
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* Calculation exercises 9 h
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* Method sessions (lectures + practical work) 18 h
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* Independent assessment study
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* Exercises (guided work on practical tasks) 14 h
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** Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
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* Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 4 h  
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** Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
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* Own reading and work 112 h
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* Web-Based Learning 30 %
 
  
 
== Lectures ==
 
== Lectures ==
  
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See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
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See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.
  
 
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
 
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
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== Evaluation ==
 
== Evaluation ==
  
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Acceptable completion of the following tasks (ideas to be drafted further):
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Acceptable completion of the following tasks (details may change):
 +
 
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'''Homeworks''' (for details, see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework]]:
 +
* Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan
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* Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about [[Template:Opasnet training]] and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan
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* Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan.
 +
 
 +
 
 +
'''Method examples:''' For each method, produce an example where you successfully use the method. The actual topics relate to real projects, and they are agreed upon during the respective method session. This list is not yet complete.
 
* A structured discussion based on written material.
 
* A structured discussion based on written material.
 
* A functional code with ovariables.
 
* A functional code with ovariables.
 
* An evaluation of a part of an assessment or a decision process.
 
* An evaluation of a part of an assessment or a decision process.
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* Computer-class exercises.
 
 
* Decision table of an assessment based on written material.
 
* Decision table of an assessment based on written material.
 
* A variable page as a part of an assessment.
 
* A variable page as a part of an assessment.
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== Content and schedule ==
 
== Content and schedule ==
−
 
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These are the available slots. The aim is to have ca. 40 hours of lectures and seminars, and otherwise work on group and individual tasks.
 
  
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
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|}
 
|}
  
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:32 h lectures, 14 h exercises, 4 h seminars.
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:32 h lectures and method sessions, 14 h exercises, 4 h seminars.
 
:MC classrooms are computer classrooms.
 
:MC classrooms are computer classrooms.
  
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** Method pages
 
** Method pages
  
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* Tekaisu?
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* Health impact assessment
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**
  
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== Help and guidance ==
 +
 +
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Topic
 +
! Contact
 +
|-----
 +
| General arrangements
 +
| [[User:Marjo|Marjo]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises related to climate change:
 +
| [[User:Marjo|Marjo]]
 +
|-----
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| Case study exercises related to mining:
 +
| [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Case study exercises related to health impact assessment:
 +
| [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]
 +
|}
 +
 +
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
 +
 +
== See also ==
  
 
===Content of 2011 course===
 
===Content of 2011 course===
  
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'''This is the content of 2011 course, and it will be updated!'''  Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
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Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
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 +
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|
 
'''Introduction to the course  
 
'''Introduction to the course  
 
* introduction to decision analysis:  [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
* introduction to decision analysis:  [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
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*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
 
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
  
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+
|
 
'''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?  
 
'''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?  
 
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]]
 
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]]
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* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
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== Help and guidance ==
 
−
 
−
{|{{prettytable}}
 
−
! Topic
 
−
! Contact
 
−
|-----
 
−
| General arrangements
 
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| [[User:Jouni]]
 
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|-----
 
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| Case study exercises: content
 
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| [[User:Jouni]]
 
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|-----
 
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| Case study exercises: technical
 
−
|
 
−
|-----
 
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| Calculation exercises
 
−
|
 
 
|}
 
|}
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Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
 
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== See also ==
 
  
 
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
 
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
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{{mfiles}}
 
{{mfiles}}
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[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
 
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[[Category:Open assessment training]]
 
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[[Category:DARM exercise]]
 
  
 
{{eracedu}}
 
{{eracedu}}

Revision as of 17:33, 7 January 2013


This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management. On this page, there was previously a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES (the same link also contains 2011 lectures).

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Aims of the course

To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet.

The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.

The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): in 2011 Yes, in 2013 unclear.

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen    
  • Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 14 h
  • Method sessions (lectures + practical work) 18 h
  • Exercises (guided work on practical tasks) 14 h
  • Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 4 h
  • Own reading and work 112 h

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Case study exercises

Evaluation

Acceptable completion of the following tasks (details may change):

Homeworks (for details, see Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework:

  • Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan
  • Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about Template:Opasnet training and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan
  • Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan.


Method examples: For each method, produce an example where you successfully use the method. The actual topics relate to real projects, and they are agreed upon during the respective method session. This list is not yet complete.

  • A structured discussion based on written material.
  • A functional code with ovariables.
  • An evaluation of a part of an assessment or a decision process.
  • Decision table of an assessment based on written material.
  • A variable page as a part of an assessment.
  • A moderated discussion or a page development.

Content and schedule

DARM course schedule 2013
Date Time Classroom Lecturer Topic
8.1. 9-11 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Lecture: Introduction, overview, course tasks. Material: Mikko's thesis + questions
10.1. 9-11 S22 Mikko Lecture: Review of IA methods and overall concept (risk management overview) Literature homework checked.
10.1. 12-14 S22 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 1. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment. Their implementation in Opasnet. Homework 2: read pages listed in Template:Opasnet training and familiarise yourself to the concepts. Make one new question about what is unclear to you about the concepts to Talk:Decision analysis and risk management 2013#Questions.
11.1. 9-11 S23 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 2. Homework 2 checked. Homework 3: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need related to a) Talvivaara mine or b) . The detailed question is your choice.
14.1. 9-11 S25 Mikko Lecture: Case Puijo forest management
16.1. 9-11 S22 Marjo Lecture: Case climate change
18.1. 9-11 S24 Tommi Lecture: Case metal mines
21.1. 9-11 MC2 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Method session: Assessments and variables, data storage. Homework given.
22.1. 12-14 MC1 Mikko Method session: Assessment scoping and decision options.
23.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Discussion exercise: roles, participation, who has important information about topic or decision
24.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Organising of contributions (finding questions, finding rationale, finding answers and conclusions)
24.1. 12-14 MC4 Jouni Method session: Structured discussion
25.1. 9-11 MC4 Jouni Method session: Modelling and R codes
25.1. 12-14 MC4 Mikko Method session: Evaluation and management of the assessment
28.1. 12-14 MC4 Jouni Exercise: Assessment description?
29.1. 12-14 MC9 Mikko Exercise: Data upload?
31.1. 9-11 MC1 Marjo Exercise:
1.2. 9-11 MC2 Jouni Exercise:
4.2. 9-11 MC9 Mikko Exercise:
7.2. 9-11 MC9 Marjo Exercise:
11.2. 9-11 MC2 Jouni Exercise:
12.2. 9-11 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Seminar: Group work presentations: Minera A, B
12.2. 12-14 S25 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Seminar: Group work presentations: Urgenche A, B
13.2. 9-11 S32 Mikko Method session: Evaluation of exercises
13.2. 12-14 S26 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Method session: Course evaluation and feedback
32 h lectures and method sessions, 14 h exercises, 4 h seminars.
MC classrooms are computer classrooms.

Pages to improve during the course:

  • Urgenche
    • [[]]
    • City assessments
    • Land use of cities
  • Minera
    • [[]]
    • Method pages
  • Health impact assessment

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements Marjo
Case study exercises related to climate change: Marjo
Case study exercises related to mining: Jouni
Case study exercises related to health impact assessment: Jouni

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Content of 2011 course

Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Introduction to the course

  • introduction to decision analysis: slides

Introduction to risk management

Introduction to using Opasnet

Introduction to probability theory: Slides


Decision analysis. slides

  • Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done


Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides

  • Computer modeling
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions
    • Normal distribution is not the only option


Calculation exercise: slides

Probabilistic models slides


Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R


Overall view of different models slides

  • Why do we do modelling?
  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).


Decision making under uncertainty

Calculation exercise.

Risk management: State-of-the-art?


Risk management: a social learning perspective

  • lecture: slides
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
  • Additional material: heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment


Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management


Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action


Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides

  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
  • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents


Final seminar:

  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>

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