Difference between revisions of "Decision analysis and risk management 2013"

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:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see [[Decision analysis and risk management]].
+
[[Category:Decision_analysis]]
 +
[[Category:Risk_management]]
 +
[[Category:Open_assessment]]
 +
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2013]]
 +
[[Category:Open assessment training]]
 +
[[Category:DARM exercise]]
 +
[[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 +
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 +
:'' This page is about a course ''Decision analysis and risk management'' organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see [[Decision analysis and risk management]]. On this page, there was previously a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
  
−
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES in 2011]</big>
+
<big>[http://www.ustream.tv/channel/decision-analysis-and-risk-management LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES]</big> (the same link also contains 2011 lectures).
 +
{{attack|# |Due to some minor technical problems live feed from lectures has not been available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture. We hope to have these problems fixed soon.|--[[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko Pohjola]] 09:04, 14 January 2013 (EET)}}{{defend|# |Due to technical problems, live feed from lectures is not available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture |--[[User:Marjo|Marjo]] 11:21, 16 January 2013 (EET)}}
  
−
[[Category:Decision_analysis]] [[Category:Risk_management]] [[Category:Open_assessment]] [[heande:Decision analysis and risk management|heande:Decision analysis and risk management]]
 
−
{{lecture|moderator = Jouni}}
 
 
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
 
'''[https://wiola.uef.fi/weboodi/opintjakstied.jsp?Kieli=1&OpinKohd=25957940 Decision analysis and risk management (DARM)]''' is a course taught in the [http://www.uef.fi/uef/home | University of Eastern Finland] (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment [http://www.uef.fi/toxen ToxEn].
  
−
NOTE! On this page, there was a list of [[:op_fi:Eracedu|related further education courses in Kuopio]] (in Finnish).
+
== Aims of the course ==
  
−
== Aims of the course ==
+
To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet.
  
−
* To give a good overview of modern assessment methods by;
+
The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.
−
** utilizing modern web-workspaces for learning, while;
 
−
** avoiding overlaps with other courses in the ToxEn MSc program,
 
  
 
'''In the course:
 
'''In the course:
  
−
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between societal decision-making and risk assessment, and the role of risk management in a broader societal context. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of risk assessment, and know how to build an assessment based on the requirements of risk management.     
+
The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.
 +
 
 +
The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).
  
 
== Course details ==
 
== Course details ==
Line 27: Line 34:
 
* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment  
 
* Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment  
 
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
 
* Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
−
* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  Yes
+
* Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja):  in 2011 Yes, in 2013 unclear.
  
 
'''Contacts
 
'''Contacts
Line 33: Line 40:
 
* Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the [http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL])          
 
* Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the [http://www.thl.fi/en_US/web/en National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL])          
 
* Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala     
 
* Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala     
−
* Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marko Tainio     
+
* Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen    
 
* Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
 
* Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
 
* Registration for the Course: Wossikka       
 
* Registration for the Course: Wossikka       
  
 
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
 
'''Teaching / Learning Methods
−
* Lectures and discussions 60 h
+
* Lectures and discussions 14 h
−
* Calculation exercises 9 h
+
* Method sessions (lectures + practical work) 16 h
−
* Independent assessment study
+
* Exercises (guided work on practical tasks) 14 h
−
** Decision analysis study (group work) 50 h
+
* Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h  
−
** Risk management study (individual work) 40 h
+
* Own reading and work 112 h
−
* Web-Based Learning 30 %
 
  
 
== Lectures ==
 
== Lectures ==
  
−
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is approximately three hours.
+
See the '''Content and schedule''' table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.
  
 
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
 
Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.
  
−
== Case study exercise ==
+
== Homework exercises ==
  
−
'''For the case study description and instructions, see the [[:Category:DARM exercise|case study exercise page]]'''
+
See [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework]]
−
 
 
−
Note! Self-organised group work requires on-line computers.
 
  
 
== Evaluation ==
 
== Evaluation ==
  
−
=== Whole course (6 ECTS) ===
+
Acceptable completion of the following tasks (details may change):
 +
* Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan
 +
* Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about [[Template:Opasnet training]] and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan
 +
* Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan. Due date for final version: 4 Feb.
 +
* Homeworks 4 to 9: Due date Monday 11 Feb evening. For instructions etc. see [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework]]
 +
* Seminar presentation 12.-13.2. ''Assignment instructions to be given soon.
  
−
The course grade consists of:
 
−
* Completion of classroom exercises (1/3)
 
−
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|Case study exercise]] (2/3)
 
−
* Active participation in lectures and exercises is taken into account while deciding the overall course grades (e.g. rounding up)
 
  
−
'''Classroom exercise scoring
+
:Homeworks 1 and 2 are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed.
 +
:Homeworks 3-9 and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent.
  
−
* Exercise 1: max. score 5 points
 
−
* Exercise 2: no scoring, completion yes/no
 
−
* Exercise 3: max. score 5 points
 
−
* Exercise 4: max. score 5 points
 
  
−
Total max. score from classroom exercises is 15 points. In addition students earn pluses from extraordinary performance and active participation. Missing exercises 1, 3 or 4 count as 0 points. Missing exercises 2 count as minus (thus counterbalancing pluses).
+
Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 10 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 3-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:
−
 
 
−
'''Case study exercise scoring
 
−
 
 
−
* Exercise part 1, DA study plan (group work): max. score 20 points
 
−
* Exercise part 2, RM analysis: max. score 10 points
 
−
 
 
−
In DA study plan exercise, all group members get the same score. The principles for evaluating the case study exercises are presented on the [[:Category:DARM exercise#Evaluation of the case study exercises|case study exercise page]]. With active commenting and discussion in Opasnet both within the group and in between groups and individuals groups and individuals can earn pluses.
 
−
 
 
−
'''Course grading
 
−
 
 
−
The below table presents the tentative guidelines for converting exercise scores into the course grade.
 
  
 
{|{{prettytable}}
 
{|{{prettytable}}
−
! Course grade
+
! Points
−
! Total score
+
! Score
−
|-----
 
−
| 0
 
−
| <20
 
 
|-----
 
|-----
 +
| <11
 
| 1
 
| 1
−
| 21-25
 
 
|-----
 
|-----
 +
| 11-12
 
| 2
 
| 2
−
| 26-30
 
 
|-----
 
|-----
 +
| 12.5-14
 
| 3
 
| 3
−
| 31-35
 
 
|-----
 
|-----
 +
| 14.5-16
 
| 4
 
| 4
−
| 36-40
 
 
|-----
 
|-----
 +
| >16
 
| 5
 
| 5
−
| 41-45
 
 
|}
 
|}
 +
 +
 +
There is also a possibility for a lighter version of the course (2 study credits) consisting participation to lectures, method sessions and the seminar (as a follower). if interested, ask for more details from Jouni Tuomisto (see contacs above).
  
−
The pluses (and minuses) can influence the overall grade in cases where the total exercise scores are close to the limit values. E.g. 35 points from exercises and active participation may be interpreted as grade 4.
+
== Content and schedule ==
  
−
'''Please check the summary table of exercise scores on the [[:heande:Decision analysis and risk management|corresponding password protected course page]] in Heande.
+
{| {{prettytable}}
 +
|+ '''DARM course schedule 2013
 +
|----
 +
! Date || Time || Classroom || Lecturer || Topic
 +
|---Homework#Homework_9|| 8.1.|| 9-11|| S25 || Jouni, Mikko, Marjo ||Lecture: Introduction, overview, course tasks ([[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]). [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 1: Mikko Pohjola's thesis|Homework 1]]: read/browse [[:heande:Assessment is to act: environmental health assessments as mediated open processes of collaborative knowledge creation|Mikko's thesis]] and answer some questions.
 +
|----
 +
|| 10.1.|| 9-11|| S22|| Mikko ||Lecture: Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview ([[:File:IADM.ppt|slides]]). Homework 1 checked.
 +
|----
 +
|| 10.1.|| 12-14|| S22|| Jouni ||Lecture:  Decision analysis 1. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment. Their implementation in Opasnet. Homework 2: read pages listed in [[Template:Opasnet training]] and familiarise yourself to the concepts. Make one new question about what is unclear to you about the concepts to [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 2: Basic concepts of open assessment|the homework page]].
 +
|----
 +
|| 11.1.|| 9-11|| S23 || Jouni ||Lecture:  Decision analysis 2. There are no slides, because we will go through [[Training assessment]]; see the assessment page and related pages. Homework 2 checked. Homework 3: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need related to a) Talvivaara mine or b) metal mining in general or c) climate change policies in cities. The detailed question is your choice.
 +
|----
 +
|| 14.1.|| 9-11|| S25|| Mikko ||Lecture:  Case Puijo forest management ([[:File:Puijo forest management.ppt|slides]])
 +
|----
 +
|| 16.1.|| 9-11|| S22 || Marjo ||Lecture: Case climate change ([[:File:Climate change and URGENCHE project.ppt|slides]])
 +
|----
 +
|| 18.1.|| 9-11|| S24 || Tommi ||Lecture: Case metal mines (slides not available)
 +
|----
 +
|| 21.1.|| 9-11|| MC2 || Jouni, Mikko, Marjo ||Method session:  A run-through of the course contents so far, answers to Homework 2 and 3. Short presentation of method sessions and exercises.
 +
|----
 +
|| 22.1.|| 12-14|| MC1 || Mikko ||Method session: Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts ([[:File:Assessment questions.ppt|slides]]). Topic: Climate policies. [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 4: Climate policy decisions and actions|Homework 4 given]].
 +
|----
 +
|| 23.1.|| 9-11|| MC4 || Marjo ||Method session:  Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. ([[:File:Collaboration in climate policy assessments.ppt|slides]]).  Topic: Climate policies. [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework Collaboration in climate policy assessment|Homework 5 given]].
 +
|----
 +
|| 24.1.|| 9-11|| MC4 || Jouni ||Method session: Structure of pages and objects and R code. No slides, see pages [[Energy consumption of heating of buildings in Kuopio]], [[Variable]], [[Method]], [[Ovariable]], [[Training assessment]]. [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 6: Structure of pages and objects and R code|Homework 6]] given.
 +
|----
 +
|| 24.1.|| 12-14|| MC4 || Jouni ||Method session: Structured discussion. Topic: [[Talk:Environmental impact assessment directive|Environmental impact assessment directive]] [http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-legalcontext.htm]. No slides, see pages [[Discussion]], [[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination#Pandemrix should not be used because of narcolepsy risk|Discussion on safety of Pandemrix]]. [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 7: Structured discussion|Homework 7]] given.
 +
|----
 +
|| 25.1.|| 9-11|| MC4 || Marjo ||Method session: Expert contributions: exposure-response functions in estimating health impacts. ([[:File:Expert contributions and ERFs.pdf|slides]]). Topic: [[Indoor environment quality (IEQ) factors|IEQ factors]]. [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 8: ERF's for IEQ factors |Homework 8]] given.
 +
|----
 +
|| 25.1.|| 12-14|| MC4 || Mikko ||Method session: Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. ([[:File:Management of assessments and decision making.ppt|slides]]) [[Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework#Homework 9: Evaluation of assessment |Homework 9]] given.
 +
|----
 +
|| 28.1.|| 12-14|| MC4 || Mikko || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basic tricks in editing Opasnet) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 29.1.|| 12-14|| MC9 || Marjo || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: links, uploading images and files) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 31.1.|| 9-11|| MC1 || Jouni || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basics of R code) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 1.2.|| 9-11|| MC2 || Mikko || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: page editing and version control in Opasnet) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 4.2.|| 9-11|| MC9 || Jouni || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: using R code effectively) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 7.2.|| 9-11|| MC9 || Marjo || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 11.2.|| 9-11|| MC2 || Jouni || Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises
 +
|----
 +
|| 12.2.|| 9-11|| S25 || Jouni (Mikko, Marjo) || Seminar:  Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
 +
|----
 +
|| 12.2.|| 12-14|| S25 || Jouni (Mikko, Marjo) || Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
 +
|----
 +
|| 13.2.|| 9-11|| S32 ||Jouni, Mikko, Marjo || Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
 +
|----
 +
|| 13.2.|| 12-14|| S26 || Mikko|| Method session: Course evaluation and feedback, including round-up of HW3 & HW9
 +
|}
  
−
=== Partial accomplishments ===
+
:30 h lectures and method sessions, 14 h exercises, 6 h seminars.
 +
:MC classrooms are computer classrooms.
  
−
For non-ToxEn students it is also possible to accomplish only certain parts of the course:
+
'''Tentative Opasnet guidance topics for the beginnings of exercise sessions:
−
* Lectures and classroom exercises (3 ECTS)
+
* basic text editing (ex. 1?)
−
* Case study exercise part 1: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 1: Decision analysis study plan|DA study plan]] (2 ECTS)
+
* categories/categorizing
−
* Case study exercise part 2: [[:Category:DARM exercise#Part 2: Risk management actions and options report|RM analysis]] (1 ECTS)
+
* permanent link
 +
* files in Opasnet: upload, linking, using, ...
 +
* creating articles
 +
* ...
 +
* '''add topics you would like to have taken up
  
−
Partial accomplishments will be graded only on a fail/pass scale according to sufficient participation and fulfillment of required exercises.
+
== Help and guidance ==
  
−
== Content and schedule ==
+
{|{{prettytable}}
 +
! Topic
 +
! Contact
 +
|-----
 +
| General arrangements
 +
| [[User:Marjo|Marjo]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Homework exercises 1, 4 & 9:
 +
| [[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Homework exercises 2, 3, 6 & 7:
 +
| [[User:Jouni|Jouni]]
 +
|-----
 +
| Homework exercises 5, & 8:
 +
| [[User:Marjo|Marjo]]
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
 +
 
 +
== See also ==
 +
 
 +
{{opasnet training}}
 +
 
 +
===Content of 2011 course===
 +
 
 +
Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
  
 
{| {{prettytable}}
 
{| {{prettytable}}
−
|+ '''Schedule and contents of the course. This is the content of 2011 course, and it will be updated!'''
+
|
−
* Each row is a three-hour block of lectures, exercises, discussions, or organised group work.
+
'''Introduction to the course  
−
* Changes in content are likely, but the dates and locations presented here are more or less fixed.
+
* introduction to decision analysis:  [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
* Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.
 
  
−
|-
+
'''Introduction to risk management
−
! Date
+
* Conventional perspectives to RM: [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
−
! Time
+
* Additional material
−
! Lecturer
+
** [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
−
! Lecture room
+
** [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
−
! Topics
+
** [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
−
! Material
+
** [[State of the art in benefit–risk analysis: Environmental health]]
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
'''Introduction to using Opasnet'''  
−
| 10-13
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
−
| '''Introduction to the course
 
−
* introduction to decision analysis: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13001629 video] , [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
−
* introduction to case study exercise and course evaluation: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002338 video], [[:File:Decision analysis and risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
−
* Introduction to the swine flu story: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13002564 video], [[:File:Swine flu story.ppt|slides]]
 
−
|
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=f26f90bb-1dd9-45cb-9b08-10ff419304cb&groupId=10128&t=1255516413730 S31]
 
−
| '''Introduction to risk management
 
−
* Conventional perspectives to RM: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057097 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
−
* Open risk management: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13057604 video], [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
−
|
 
−
* [http://www.riskworld.com/nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/epajan.pdf Framework for environmental health risk management]
 
−
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/An_introduction_to_the_IRGC_Risk_Governance_Framework.pdf An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework]
 
−
* [http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_RiskGovernanceDeficits_PolicyBrief2010.pdf Risk governance deficits - Policy brief]
 
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/State_of_the_art_of_environmental_health_assessments State-of-the-art in environmental health assessment (manuscript)]
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 13-16
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Mikko, Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 
−
| '''Swine flu story: risks and their management''': video, [[:File:Introduction to risk management.ppt|slides]] [http://en.opasnet.org/en-opwiki/images/e/ed/Whiteboard_online.jpg whiteboard]
 
−
* independent exploration
 
−
** Beginning of the pandemic
 
−
** preparedness in Finland and elsewhere
 
−
* mini-presentations and discussion
 
−
* summary
 
−
|
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| '''Mikko''', Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 
−
| '''Introduction to using Opasnet'''  
 
 
* Introduction to Opasnet
 
* Introduction to Opasnet
 
* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
 
* Demonstration of structure, content and functionalities
Line 186: Line 220:
 
** browsing and searching
 
** browsing and searching
 
** commenting and discussing
 
** commenting and discussing
−
|
+
* Additional material
−
* [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
+
** [[:Category:DARM exercise#Introduction to working in Opasnet]]
−
* [[Opasnet]]
+
** [[Opasnet]]
−
* [[Help:Contents]]
+
** [[Help:Contents]]    
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 13-16
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Introduction to probability theory''': [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13079407 video], [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
 
  
 +
'''Introduction to probability theory''': [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|Slides]]
 
*[[Subjective probability]]  
 
*[[Subjective probability]]  
 
*Practical exercise  
 
*Practical exercise  
−
*Bayesian rule [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13080233 video]
+
*Bayesian rule
 
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
 
*Importance of exhaustiveness (coverage)
 +
* Additional material: [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics] [[:heande:File:Lindley Philosophy of Statistics JRSS 200.pdf|Lindley, a backup file]]
 +
* Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.
  
−
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3367&docver=1&fileid=3367&filever=1&filename=Lindley_Philosophy_of_Statistics_JRSS_200.pdf Dennis Lindley: Philosophy of statistics]
 
  
−
[[:heande:File:Lindley Philosophy of Statistics JRSS 200.pdf|Lindley, a backup file]]
+
'''Decision analysis'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Jouni
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
−
| '''Introduction to probability theory.''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13171805 video] [[:File:Introduction to probability theory.ppt|slides]]
 
−
* Bayes' rule. Updating probability. Examples: red balls, narcolepsy test.
 
−
'''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]
 
 
*Measures of outcome: [[:en:Utility|Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[:en:Willingness to pay|WTP]]
 
*Measures of outcome: [[:en:Utility|Utility]], [[DALY]], [[QALY]], [[:en:Willingness to pay|WTP]]
−
|
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Jouni
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
−
| '''Decision analysis (continued)'''. [[:File:Introduction to decision analysis.ppt|slides]]; sorry, no video
 
 
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees  
 
*Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees  
 
*Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
 
*Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
−
'''Swine flu case as a decision problem:''' what are the relevant decisions, outcomes and questions in the case?
 
 
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done  
 
*Purpose of assessment: Why it is done  
−
|
+
 
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
'''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
−
| 9-12
+
*Computer modeling
−
| Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation''': [[:File:ModelingAndMonteCarlo.ppt|slides]]
 
−
*Computer modeling [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13220482 video]
 
 
**Why?
 
**Why?
 
*Approximation
 
*Approximation
Line 238: Line 248:
 
*Monte Carlo simulation
 
*Monte Carlo simulation
 
**When and why to use?
 
**When and why to use?
−
*Common uncertainty distributions [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13221263 video]
+
*Common uncertainty distributions
 
**Normal distribution is not the only option
 
**Normal distribution is not the only option
  
−
'''Swine flu story''' (autumn - winter 2009): First deaths of swine flu (threat was real). Problems with implementation: long queues in health centers. Clear-cut case falls apart. False alarm? Disease was milder than thought.
+
 
−
|
+
'''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 8-11
 
−
| Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 
−
| '''Calculation exercise''': [[:File:Calculation exercise Modeling.ppt|slides]]
 
 
*Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 
*Case: Mortality due to PM2.5 in Kuopio
 +
* Additional material [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/images/7/7b/Pope_2002.pdf Pope et al. 2002]
  
−
| [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/images/7/7b/Pope_2002.pdf Pope et al. 2002]
+
'''Probabilistic models''' [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
−
|-
+
* [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
−
|
+
 
−
| 9-12
+
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Marko
+
'''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''  
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
−
|
 
−
* '''Probabilistic models''' video [[:File:Probabilistic models.ppt|slides]]
 
−
| [[:en:Gibbs sampling|Gibbs sampling]] [[:en:Bayesian network|Bayesian network]] [[:en:Hierarchical Bayes model|Hierarchical Bayes model]]
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| '''Jouni''', Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=e40d7322-7e1e-44a2-93ef-32e284b65a69&groupId=10128&t=1262952468685 MC4]
 
−
| '''Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R'''  
 
 
* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
 
* [[Open assessment quiz]], [[:heande:Calibration of a group]]
 
* [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
 
* [[:heande:Health impacts of PM in Kuopio|Health impacts of PM in Kuopio]]
−
* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' no video [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
+
* '''[[Expert elicitation|Expert judgement]]''' [[:File:Expert judgement.ppt|slides]]
−
| [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
+
* Additional material: [[:heande:File:Tuomisto RESS3866 2007 PMExpertElicitation.pdf|Tuomisto et al: PM expert elicitation]]
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
 
−
| 13-16
+
'''Overall view of different models''' [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
−
| Jouni
+
*Why do we do modelling?
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Overall view of different models''' [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13397033 video], [[:File:Overview of models.ppt|slides]]
 
−
Why do we do modelling?
 
 
* [[Producing result from rationale]].  
 
* [[Producing result from rationale]].  
 
**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.  
 
**Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.  
Line 282: Line 274:
 
**Other relations (neural networks).
 
**Other relations (neural networks).
  
−
'''First drafts of DA study plans.''' Brief presentations by students of and discussions about the first DA study plan drafts.
 
  
−
|
+
'''Decision making under uncertainty'''  
−
|-
+
* Why decision analysis?: [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]  
−
|
 
−
| 11-14
 
−
| Jouni, Marko, Mikko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Decision making under uncertainty'''  
 
−
* Why decision analysis?: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13473130 video], [[:File:Why to learn decision analysis.ppt|Slides]]  
 
 
* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
 
* Sensitivity analysis: [[:File:Sensitivity_analysis_02.ppt|Slides]]
−
* Value of information: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13489919 video], [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]  
+
* Value of information: [[:File:Tainio_ValueOfInformation_02.ppt|Slides]]  
−
|
+
* Additional material:
−
*[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
+
**[http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/risk/Phase3Final.pdf Further information about sensitivity analysis (Frey et al. 2004)]
−
* [[Value of information]]
+
** [[Value of information]], [[Value of information analysis]]
−
* [[Value of information analysis]]
+
* Assessment performance: [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Mikko, Marko, Jouni 
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Decision-making under uncertainty (continued)'''.
 
−
* Assessment performance: [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13490379 video], [[:File: Assessment performance.ppt|Slides]]
 
 
** quality assurance/quality control
 
** quality assurance/quality control
 
** uncertainty
 
** uncertainty
 
** model performance
 
** model performance
 
** information in use
 
** information in use
−
** &rarr; [[:heande:Purpose and properties of good assessments]]
+
** &rarr; [[Properties of good assessment]]
−
|
+
 
−
|-
+
'''Calculation exercise. '''  
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Marko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 
−
| '''Calculation exercise. '''  
 
 
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
 
*[http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Health_impacts_of_PM_in_Kuopio Link to exercise page]
  
−
|  
+
|
−
|-
+
'''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?  
−
|
+
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]]
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Jouni, Mikko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 
−
| '''Full drafts of DA study plans.'''
 
−
* Brief info about updated course evaluation principles
 
−
* A couple of words about the sensitivity analysis calculation exercise held on 25.3.
 
−
* DA study plan presentations by groups and discussions about them
 
−
|
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Mikko, Jouni
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Risk management''': State-of-the-art?  
 
−
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - state of the art.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13656373 video]
 
 
** perspectives to assessment and management
 
** perspectives to assessment and management
 
** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
 
** tendencies in EHA and EHRM
Line 345: Line 303:
 
** assessment and management in the swine flu case
 
** assessment and management in the swine flu case
 
** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
 
** questions, actors, roles in swine flu case RM?
−
|
+
* Additional material:
−
* [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
+
** [[:heande:State of the art of environmental health assessment]]
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
+
** [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3389&docver=1&fileid=3389&filever=1&filename=Decision%20making%20for%20the%20environment.pdf Decision Making for the Environment]
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
+
** [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3390&docver=1&fileid=3390&filever=1&filename=Risk%20assessment%20in%20the%20Federal%20Government%20Managing%20the%20Process.pdf Risk Assessment in the Federal Government]
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
+
** [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3391&docver=1&fileid=3391&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Decisions.pdf Science and Decisions]
−
* [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
+
** [http://heande.opasnet.org/heande/extensions/mfiles/mf_getfile.php?anon=true&docid=3392&docver=1&fileid=3392&filever=1&filename=Science%20and%20Judgment%20in%20Risk%20Assessment.pdf Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment]
−
* [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
+
** [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=5138#toc Understanding Risk (free online version)]
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
 
−
| 9-12
+
'''Risk management''': a social learning perspective  
−
| Mikko, Jouni
+
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]]
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S23]
 
−
| '''Risk management''': a social learning perspective  
 
−
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - a social learning perspective.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13676880 video]
 
 
** participation in assessment and management
 
** participation in assessment and management
 
** dimensions of openness
 
** dimensions of openness
Line 365: Line 320:
 
** role of public in swine flu case RM?
 
** role of public in swine flu case RM?
 
** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
 
** dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
−
|
+
* Additional material: [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
−
* [[:heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment]]
+
 
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
'''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Mikko, Jouni
 
−
|
 
−
* 9-10: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S21]
 
−
* 10-12: [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=57494e30-5678-4e4b-a299-3f83ddeb6c3b&groupId=10128&t=1255516413723 MC9]
 
−
| '''Risk management''': facilitation of (open) risk management
 
 
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
* lecture: [[:File:Risk management - Facilitation of (open) risk management.ppt|slides]]
 
** collective knowledge creation
 
** collective knowledge creation
Line 381: Line 330:
 
** pragmatic knowledge services
 
** pragmatic knowledge services
 
** from an information society towards a knowledge society  
 
** from an information society towards a knowledge society  
−
* exercise ([[Talk:Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|task]]):
+
* exercise
 
** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
 
** [[Discussion]] and structured argumentation in [[Opasnet]]
 
** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
 
** argumentation analysis on some swine flu RM related texts
−
|
+
* Additional material:
−
* [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
+
** [[Pragmatic knowledge services]]
−
* [[Argumentation]]
+
** [[Argumentation]]
−
* [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
+
** [[:en:Pragma-dialectics|Pragma-dialectics]]
−
* [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].  
+
** [[Wisdom of pragma-dialectic crowds|argumentation theory]].  
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
 
−
| 13-16
+
'''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
−
| Jouni, Mikko
+
* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]]  
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=082571f2-50ee-4243-9c9b-6e5b39a58831&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S4069]
 
−
| '''Risk management''': from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action
 
−
* Lecture: [[:File:Risk management - From needs to knowledge, knowledge to action.ppt|slides]] video: Mikko, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13830606 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831230 2] Jouni, part [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831527 1] [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13831967 2]
 
 
** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
 
** Round-up of what has been stated about (open) RM so far
 
** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
 
** It's all about developing shared beliefs to guide action
Line 405: Line 351:
 
* Discussion
 
* Discussion
 
** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
 
** Based on the argumentation exercise (1.4.)
−
|
+
* Additional material:
−
* [[Inference rules]]
+
** [[Inference rules]]
−
* [[Scientific method]]
+
** [[Scientific method]]
−
* [[Falsification]]
+
** [[Falsification]]
−
* [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
+
** [[:en:Justified true belief|Justified true belief]]
−
* [[Shared belief system]]
+
** [[Shared belief system]]
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
 
−
| 9-12
+
'''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]]
−
| Jouni, Mikko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S22]
 
−
| '''Summary of decision analysis and risk management''': [[:File:Overview of DA, RM, OA and ORM.ppt|slides]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13848926 video]
 
 
* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
 
* Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
 
** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
 
** Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
−
** Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
+
* Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
−
* An [[Assessment of the health impacts of H1N1 vaccination|example of a swine flu DA]], [http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13849567 video]
 
 
** overview
 
** overview
 
** model
 
** model
Line 430: Line 372:
 
* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
 
* '''Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture'''
 
** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
 
** topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents
−
|
+
 
−
|-
+
 
−
|
+
'''Final seminar:'''
−
| 9-12
 
−
| Jouni, Mikko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Final seminar:'''
 
 
* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
 
* Presentations of DA study plans by groups
−
** focus on the main improvements since 29.3.
 
−
** presenting order: 2, 3, 1, 4
 
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 
* Presentations of the RM exercises:
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
−
** presenting order: Anna, Bate, Carmen, Enembe
 
−
|
 
−
|-
 
−
|
 
−
| 8-11
 
−
| Jouni, Mikko
 
−
| [http://www.uef.fi/image/image_gallery?uuid=6b09ca8b-07a5-4d8c-82aa-18e08d3565fc&groupId=10128&t=1255516799334 S24]
 
−
| '''Final seminar'''
 
−
* Presentations of the RM exercises continues
 
−
** 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
 
−
** presenting order: Jacob, Jukka-Pekka, June, Kati, Minna (or someone on behalf of her), Oluyemi, Sallamari
 
−
|}
 
−
 
−
== Help and guidance ==
 
−
 
−
{|{{prettytable}}
 
−
! Topic
 
−
! Contact
 
−
|-----
 
−
| General arrangements
 
−
| [[User:Jouni]]
 
−
|-----
 
−
| Case study exercises: content
 
−
| [[User:Jouni]]
 
−
|-----
 
−
| Case study exercises: technical
 
−
|
 
−
|-----
 
−
| Calculation exercises
 
−
|
 
 
|}
 
|}
−
 
−
Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.
 
−
 
−
== See also ==
 
  
 
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
 
=== Links to additional DA materials ===
Line 509: Line 411:
  
 
{{mfiles}}
 
{{mfiles}}
−
[[Category:YMAL lectures 2011]]
 
−
[[Category:Open assessment training]]
 
−
[[Category:DARM exercise]]
 
  
 
{{eracedu}}
 
{{eracedu}}

Latest revision as of 08:18, 20 February 2013


This page is about a course Decision analysis and risk management organised in 2013. For a course organised in 2011, see Decision analysis and risk management. On this page, there was previously a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

LIVE FEED FROM LECTURES (the same link also contains 2011 lectures). ⇤# : Due to some minor technical problems live feed from lectures has not been available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture. We hope to have these problems fixed soon. --Mikko Pohjola 09:04, 14 January 2013 (EET)←# : Due to technical problems, live feed from lectures is not available on DARM2013, except for the first lecture --Marjo 11:21, 16 January 2013 (EET)

Decision analysis and risk management (DARM) is a course taught in the | University of Eastern Finland (UEF) for Master's (MSc) Degree Programme in General Toxicology and Environmental Health Risk Assessment ToxEn.

Aims of the course

To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet.

The capability to act as an expert facilitator is the key objective in developing the course content. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support.

In the course:

The student will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. The student will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making.

The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

Course details

  • Name: Decision analysis and risk management          
  • Abbreviation: DARM
  • ECTS-credits: 6
  • Home page of the course: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Darm
  • Degree Programme: ToxEn, Environment health risk assessment
  • Teaching Language: English, with Finnish accent
  • Offered for Students in Other Universities (JOO-opintoja): in 2011 Yes, in 2013 unclear.

Contacts

  • Organising Departments: Department of environmental science (in collaboration with the National Institute for Health and Welfare, THL)          
  • Course Director: Jukka Juutilainen / Jonne Naarala     
  • Teachers: Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola, Marjo Niittynen    
  • Contact Persons email: jouni.tuomisto(at)thl.fi     
  • Registration for the Course: Wossikka     

Teaching / Learning Methods

  • Lectures and discussions 14 h
  • Method sessions (lectures + practical work) 16 h
  • Exercises (guided work on practical tasks) 14 h
  • Seminars (practical work done presented by students): 6 h
  • Own reading and work 112 h

Lectures

See the Content and schedule table for timing, locations, topics and links to materials. One lecture and classroom exercise session is 2 * 45 min, and they are typically held without a break. The lectures and sessions start 15 min past full hour.

Study materials include e.g. PowerPoint files, scanned articles or book chapters, web-sites and web-documents. Due to copy-right reasons, some of the materials are distributed through a password protected HEANDE-page. Passwords to HEANDE will be distributed during the lectures. In the end of the page there are some more links for further information.

Homework exercises

See Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework

Evaluation

Acceptable completion of the following tasks (details may change):

  • Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan
  • Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about Template:Opasnet training and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan
  • Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan. Due date for final version: 4 Feb.
  • Homeworks 4 to 9: Due date Monday 11 Feb evening. For instructions etc. see Decision analysis and risk management 2013/Homework
  • Seminar presentation 12.-13.2. Assignment instructions to be given soon.


Homeworks 1 and 2 are evaluated on a 0-1 scale, where 0 = not completed and 1 = completed.
Homeworks 3-9 and seminar presentation are evaluated on a 0-2 scale, where 0 = not completed, 1 = satisfactory, 1.5 = good, 2 = excellent.


Satisfactory completion of all homework exercise gives 10 points and score 1 (on a 1-5 scale). By doing better that satisfactorily in exercises 3-9, it is possible to get a higher score as follows:

Points Score
<11 1
11-12 2
12.5-14 3
14.5-16 4
>16 5


There is also a possibility for a lighter version of the course (2 study credits) consisting participation to lectures, method sessions and the seminar (as a follower). if interested, ask for more details from Jouni Tuomisto (see contacs above).

Content and schedule

DARM course schedule 2013
Date Time Classroom Lecturer Topic
10.1. 9-11 S22 Mikko Lecture: Impact assessment and decision making, a risk management overview (slides). Homework 1 checked.
10.1. 12-14 S22 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 1. Basic concepts and information structures in open assessment. Their implementation in Opasnet. Homework 2: read pages listed in Template:Opasnet training and familiarise yourself to the concepts. Make one new question about what is unclear to you about the concepts to the homework page.
11.1. 9-11 S23 Jouni Lecture: Decision analysis 2. There are no slides, because we will go through Training assessment; see the assessment page and related pages. Homework 2 checked. Homework 3: Develop a basic assessment structure about an information need related to a) Talvivaara mine or b) metal mining in general or c) climate change policies in cities. The detailed question is your choice.
14.1. 9-11 S25 Mikko Lecture: Case Puijo forest management (slides)
16.1. 9-11 S22 Marjo Lecture: Case climate change (slides)
18.1. 9-11 S24 Tommi Lecture: Case metal mines (slides not available)
21.1. 9-11 MC2 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Method session: A run-through of the course contents so far, answers to Homework 2 and 3. Short presentation of method sessions and exercises.
22.1. 12-14 MC1 Mikko Method session: Assessment scoping - aims, decisions, actions, impacts (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 4 given.
23.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Assessment scoping & facilitation - participation, roles, perspectives, knowledge, collaboration. (slides). Topic: Climate policies. Homework 5 given.
24.1. 9-11 MC4 Jouni Method session: Structure of pages and objects and R code. No slides, see pages Energy consumption of heating of buildings in Kuopio, Variable, Method, Ovariable, Training assessment. Homework 6 given.
24.1. 12-14 MC4 Jouni Method session: Structured discussion. Topic: Environmental impact assessment directive [1]. No slides, see pages Discussion, Discussion on safety of Pandemrix. Homework 7 given.
25.1. 9-11 MC4 Marjo Method session: Expert contributions: exposure-response functions in estimating health impacts. (slides). Topic: IEQ factors. Homework 8 given.
25.1. 12-14 MC4 Mikko Method session: Management of assessments and decision making: execution, evaluation, facilitation. (slides) Homework 9 given.
28.1. 12-14 MC4 Mikko Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basic tricks in editing Opasnet) + guided work on exercises
29.1. 12-14 MC9 Marjo Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: links, uploading images and files) + guided work on exercises
31.1. 9-11 MC1 Jouni Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: basics of R code) + guided work on exercises
1.2. 9-11 MC2 Mikko Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: page editing and version control in Opasnet) + guided work on exercises
4.2. 9-11 MC9 Jouni Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: using R code effectively) + guided work on exercises
7.2. 9-11 MC9 Marjo Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises
11.2. 9-11 MC2 Jouni Exercise: Opasnet guidance (today's topic: ?) + guided work on exercises
12.2. 9-11 S25 Jouni (Mikko, Marjo) Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
12.2. 12-14 S25 Jouni (Mikko, Marjo) Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
13.2. 9-11 S32 Jouni, Mikko, Marjo Seminar: Group work presentations (3 slots) MANDATORY
13.2. 12-14 S26 Mikko Method session: Course evaluation and feedback, including round-up of HW3 & HW9
30 h lectures and method sessions, 14 h exercises, 6 h seminars.
MC classrooms are computer classrooms.

Tentative Opasnet guidance topics for the beginnings of exercise sessions:

  • basic text editing (ex. 1?)
  • categories/categorizing
  • permanent link
  • files in Opasnet: upload, linking, using, ...
  • creating articles
  • ...
  • add topics you would like to have taken up

Help and guidance

Topic Contact
General arrangements Marjo
Homework exercises 1, 4 & 9: Mikko
Homework exercises 2, 3, 6 & 7: Jouni
Homework exercises 5, & 8: Marjo

Help requests or other comments can be posted on the course web-page or the exercise web-page by using the comment boxes on the end of the pages (no user account / log in required) or on the discussion pages.

See also

Materials and examples for training in Opasnet and open assessment
Help pages Wiki editing • How to edit wikipages • Quick reference for wiki editing • Drawing graphs • Opasnet policies • Watching pages • Writing formulae • Word to Wiki • Wiki editing Advanced skills
Training assessment (examples of different objects) Training assessment • Training exposure • Training health impact • Training costs • Climate change policies and health in Kuopio • Climate change policies in Kuopio
Methods and concepts Assessment • Variable • Method • Question • Answer • Rationale • Attribute • Decision • Result • Object-oriented programming in Opasnet • Universal object • Study • Formula • OpasnetBaseUtils • Open assessment • PSSP
Terms with changed use Scope • Definition • Result • Tool


Content of 2011 course

Abbreviations: DA = decision analysis, RM = risk management, RA = risk assessment, RC = risk communication.

Introduction to the course

  • introduction to decision analysis: slides

Introduction to risk management

Introduction to using Opasnet

Introduction to probability theory: Slides


Decision analysis. slides

  • Measures of outcome: Utility, DALY, QALY, WTP
  • Concepts: decisions, objectives, optimization, uncertainty, decision trees
  • Influence diagrams, Bayesian belief nets.
  • Purpose of assessment: Why it is done


Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation: slides

  • Computer modeling
    • Why?
  • Approximation
    • When data is not available
  • Monte Carlo simulation
    • When and why to use?
  • Common uncertainty distributions
    • Normal distribution is not the only option


Calculation exercise: slides

Probabilistic models slides


Calculation exercise of calibration and PM risks with Opasnet R


Overall view of different models slides

  • Why do we do modelling?
  • Producing result from rationale.
    • Deterministic, heuristic, and probabilistic estimates.
    • Functional, differential, logical, and probabilistic relations.
    • Other relations (neural networks).


Decision making under uncertainty

Calculation exercise.

Risk management: State-of-the-art?


Risk management: a social learning perspective

  • lecture: slides
    • participation in assessment and management
    • dimensions of openness
    • assessments as collaborative information production projects
  • discussion:
    • role of public in swine flu case RM?
    • dimensions of openness -analysis of the narcolepsy study RM
  • Additional material: heande:Open participation in environmental health assessment


Risk management: facilitation of (open) risk management


Risk management: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action


Summary of decision analysis and risk management: slides

  • Overview of DA, RM, OA & ORM
    • Who needs (uses, makes, understands) DA & RM?
  • Examples of past, on-going, and upcoming OA/ORM cases
    • overview
    • model
    • results and analyses
    • conclusions
    • relations to groups' DA study plans
  • What's new about the swine flu case?
  • Q&A, discussions and group feedback on the course contents and arrangements
  • Suggest more topics to be presented or discussed on the last lecture
    • topics can be e.g. some unclear things to be re-reviewed or something you may feel has been missing from the course contents


Final seminar:

  • Presentations of DA study plans by groups
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion
  • Presentations of the RM exercises:
    • 5 minutes for presentation, 10 minutes for discussion

Links to additional DA materials

Links to additional RM materials

Background information about other Decision analysis and risk management study programs in Europe and in USA is provided here: Decision analysis and risk management - background information

NOTE! On this page, there was a list of related further education courses in Kuopio (in Finnish).

Keywords

Risk assessment. Decision analysis. Bayesian theory. Open assessment. Risk management. Societal decision making.     

References


Related files

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