Difference between revisions of "Assessment of building policies' effect on dampness and asthma in Europe"
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|question = Dampness in homes is a major environmental health hazard causing asthma and allergic or respiratory symptoms. Good building policies can reduce dampness in homes. What are the effects of different plausible building policies on dampness in homes and consequently on asthma prevalence in Europe between 2010 and 2050? | |question = Dampness in homes is a major environmental health hazard causing asthma and allergic or respiratory symptoms. Good building policies can reduce dampness in homes. What are the effects of different plausible building policies on dampness in homes and consequently on asthma prevalence in Europe between 2010 and 2050? | ||
|answer = There are currently 1.7 million (95 % CI 0.8 - 2.9 million) cases of asthma due to indoor dampness in Europe. This number is likely to increase in the future due to decreased ventilation in aim to reduce energy consumption, if other measures are not taken. It is important to maintain good air exchange and humidity conditions even when energy saving measures are taken.}} | |answer = There are currently 1.7 million (95 % CI 0.8 - 2.9 million) cases of asthma due to indoor dampness in Europe. This number is likely to increase in the future due to decreased ventilation in aim to reduce energy consumption, if other measures are not taken. It is important to maintain good air exchange and humidity conditions even when energy saving measures are taken.}} | ||
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===Boundaries etc.=== | ===Boundaries etc.=== | ||
− | '''Boundaries, scenarios, intended users, and participants''' are the same as in the [[Mega case study]]. | + | '''Boundaries, scenarios, intended users, and participants''' are the same as in the [[Mega case study|Common Case Study]]. In brief, the situation is assessed in EU-30 (the current 27 EU member states plus Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland) for the next forty years. Four scenarios are considered: 1) '''BAU''': business as usual contains the implementation of already made decisions but no further actions; 2) '''ALL''': all such policies are implemented that are required to reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions by 70 % by 2050; 3) '''INSULATION''': only building insulation policies from ALL are implemented (ALL also contains policies to increase biomass use, but these are not implemented here); 4) '''RENOVATION''': same as ALL except that ventilation is not improved in 50 % of those buildings that are insulated up to tighter standards. |
+ | |||
+ | ==Rationale== | ||
+ | |||
+ | [[image:HIA of dampness in Europe.png|thumb|400 px|A causal diagram of health effects of dampness in Europe.]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | ;Decision variables | ||
+ | *[[Building policies in Europe]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | ;Other variables | ||
+ | *[[Population of Europe by Country]] | ||
+ | *[[Asthma prevalence]] | ||
+ | *[[:heande:HI:Air exchange rate for European residences]] | ||
+ | *[[:heande:Moisture damage]] | ||
+ | *[[ERF of indoor dampness on respiratory health effects]] | ||
+ | *[[Disability weights]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | ;Indicators | ||
+ | *[[Asthma prevalence due to building dampness in Europe]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Analyses=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | '''Building mould and dampness case study | ||
+ | * Estimates health impacts of dampness and mould in residential buildings on asthma prevalence in Europe. | ||
+ | * Nation-wide dampness estimates were obtained from several studies reviewed in this sub-assessment (http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Moisture_damage). | ||
+ | * Several countries (Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta) were rejected due to lack of data. | ||
+ | * Exposure-response function was 1.56 (OR) for current asthma risk (prevalence) due to existing dampness problem (Fisk et al., 2007). | ||
+ | * Linear no-threshold ERF was assumed for the whole population in each country. | ||
+ | * The model development, data storage, and model runs were all performed in Opasnet using R software and Opasnet Base. | ||
+ | * The main page of the sub-assessment is http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessment_of_building_policies%27_effect_on_dampness_and_asthma_in_Europe | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | '''Outcomes of interest of mould and dampness sub-assessment. | ||
+ | * Main health impact: number of asthma cases (prevalence) attributable to indoor problems due to residential mould or dampness. | ||
+ | * Preliminary estimate of DALYs attributable to asthma were based on disability weight 0.056 (weight of a treated asthma case from WHO). | ||
+ | * Preliminary estimate of monetary impact was obtained indirectly by converting DALYs into euros; other cost types were ignored. | ||
+ | ** One DALY estimated to be worth 30-60 k€. | ||
+ | * Methodological outcome: proof of concept for running assessment models via open internet interface. | ||
==Result== | ==Result== | ||
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*This code features [[R]] functions described on [[Opasnet Base Connection for R]] and [[Operating intelligently with multidimensional arrays in R]]. | *This code features [[R]] functions described on [[Opasnet Base Connection for R]] and [[Operating intelligently with multidimensional arrays in R]]. |
Revision as of 16:27, 11 February 2011
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Question:
Dampness in homes is a major environmental health hazard causing asthma and allergic or respiratory symptoms. Good building policies can reduce dampness in homes. What are the effects of different plausible building policies on dampness in homes and consequently on asthma prevalence in Europe between 2010 and 2050? There are currently 1.7 million (95 % CI 0.8 - 2.9 million) cases of asthma due to indoor dampness in Europe. This number is likely to increase in the future due to decreased ventilation in aim to reduce energy consumption, if other measures are not taken. It is important to maintain good air exchange and humidity conditions even when energy saving measures are taken. |
Contents
Scope
In this study, the research question was the following: What are the effects of different building policies on dampness and asthma prevalence in Europe? We looked specifically at years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2050 in the European Union. The study was performed as an open assessment in the internet as a part of the so called Common Case Study of INTARESE and HEIMTSA projects.
Boundaries etc.
Boundaries, scenarios, intended users, and participants are the same as in the Common Case Study. In brief, the situation is assessed in EU-30 (the current 27 EU member states plus Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland) for the next forty years. Four scenarios are considered: 1) BAU: business as usual contains the implementation of already made decisions but no further actions; 2) ALL: all such policies are implemented that are required to reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions by 70 % by 2050; 3) INSULATION: only building insulation policies from ALL are implemented (ALL also contains policies to increase biomass use, but these are not implemented here); 4) RENOVATION: same as ALL except that ventilation is not improved in 50 % of those buildings that are insulated up to tighter standards.
Rationale
- Decision variables
- Other variables
- Population of Europe by Country
- Asthma prevalence
- heande:HI:Air exchange rate for European residences
- heande:Moisture damage
- ERF of indoor dampness on respiratory health effects
- Disability weights
- Indicators
Analyses
Building mould and dampness case study
- Estimates health impacts of dampness and mould in residential buildings on asthma prevalence in Europe.
- Nation-wide dampness estimates were obtained from several studies reviewed in this sub-assessment (http://heande.opasnet.org/wiki/Moisture_damage).
- Several countries (Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta) were rejected due to lack of data.
- Exposure-response function was 1.56 (OR) for current asthma risk (prevalence) due to existing dampness problem (Fisk et al., 2007).
- Linear no-threshold ERF was assumed for the whole population in each country.
- The model development, data storage, and model runs were all performed in Opasnet using R software and Opasnet Base.
- The main page of the sub-assessment is http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessment_of_building_policies%27_effect_on_dampness_and_asthma_in_Europe
Outcomes of interest of mould and dampness sub-assessment.
- Main health impact: number of asthma cases (prevalence) attributable to indoor problems due to residential mould or dampness.
- Preliminary estimate of DALYs attributable to asthma were based on disability weight 0.056 (weight of a treated asthma case from WHO).
- Preliminary estimate of monetary impact was obtained indirectly by converting DALYs into euros; other cost types were ignored.
- One DALY estimated to be worth 30-60 k€.
- Methodological outcome: proof of concept for running assessment models via open internet interface.
Result
Asthma prevalence due to building dampness in Europe: Show results
- Results for the Biomass scenario are wrong and the scenario is perhaps irrelevant because biomass usage does not affect air exchange rates, which this assessment is concerned with, so it should be ignored.
Year | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Policy | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2050 |
BAU | 1715846 (794208-2918407) | 2069089 (929518-3645690) | 2300513 (1007103-4193891) | 2417413 (1016202-4559645) |
All | NA | 2071501 (940391-3650210) | 2634778 (1139578-4745158) | 3009693 (1251020-5519308) |
Insulation | NA | NA | NA | 3002498 (1239186-5524389) |
Renovation | NA | NA | NA | 3416010 (1443227-6233562) |
Year | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Policy | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2050 |
BAU | 101235 (46858-172186) | 122076 (54842-215096) | 135730 (59419-247440) | 142627 (59956-269019) |
All | NA | 122219 (55483-215362) | 155452 (67235-279964) | 177572 (73810-325639) |
Insulation | NA | NA | NA | 177147 (73112-325939) |
Renovation | NA | NA | NA | 201545 (85150-367780) |
Year | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Policy | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2050 |
BAU | 4552 (2065-7861) | 5478 (2464-9800) | 6105 (2617-11307) | 6404 (2622-12279) |
All | NA | 5491 (2434-9869) | 7012 (2981-13005) | 7989 (3285-14872) |
Insulation | NA | NA | NA | 7995 (3244-15283) |
Renovation | NA | NA | NA | 9059 (3827-16881) |
Country of observation | Mean | SD |
---|---|---|
Austria | 23958 | 19818 |
Belgium | 46983 | 24769 |
Cyprus | 3010 | 706 |
Czech Republic | 65640 | 31215 |
Denmark | 9088 | 6502 |
Estonia | 8188 | 2735 |
Finland | 10881 | 17198 |
France | 303354 | 161230 |
Germany | 379346 | 221077 |
Greece | 20517 | 7842 |
Italy | 279127 | 99106 |
Latvia | 11991 | 3158 |
Poland | 270064 | 49342 |
Portugal | 48477 | 18082 |
Spain | 226670 | 93709 |
Sweden | 20039 | 24323 |
Total | 1715846 |
R code for detailed analysis
- This code features R functions described on Opasnet Base Connection for R and Operating intelligently with multidimensional arrays in R.
library(ggplot2) asthma <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en4723", exclude = 48823) array <- DataframeToArray(asthma) array <- array[,,,c(2,1,3,4),,] ##### Cases ##### means <- apply(array, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE) means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE) plot1 <- as.data.frame(as.table(means)) plot1 <- ggplot(plot1[plot1[,"Freq"]!=0,], aes(Year, weight=Freq, fill=policy)) + geom_bar(position="dodge") + scale_x_discrete("Year") + scale_y_continuous("Cases") plot1 ci <- apply(apply(array, c(1,3,4), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975)) final1 <- means final1[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="") final1[c(2:4,7:8,11:12)] <- NA final1 ##### DALYs ##### DALY <- array*0.059 means <- apply(DALY, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE) means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE) plot2 <- as.data.frame(as.table(means)) plot2 <- ggplot(plot2[plot2[,"Freq"]!=0,], aes(Year, weight=Freq, fill=policy)) + geom_bar(position="dodge") + scale_x_discrete("Year") + scale_y_continuous("DALYs") plot2 ci <- apply(apply(DALY, c(1,3,4), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975)) final2 <- means final2[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="") final2[c(2:4,7:8,11:12)] <- NA final2 ##### Cost ##### mpdaly <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en4858") cost <- IntArray(mpdaly, DALY, "DALYs") cost <- data.frame(cost[,c("obs","Country","policy","Year")], Result=cost[,"Result"]*cost[,"DALYs"]) cost <- DataframeToArray(cost) cost <- cost[,,c(2,1,3,4),] means <- apply(cost, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE) means <- apply(means, c(2,3), sum, na.rm=TRUE)/10^6 plot3 <- as.data.frame(as.table(means)) plot3 <- ggplot(plot3[plot3[,"Freq"]!=0,], aes(Year, weight=Freq, fill=policy)) + geom_bar(position="dodge") + scale_x_discrete("Year") + scale_y_continuous("Cost (M€)") plot3 ci <- apply(apply(cost, c(1,3,4), sum, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), quantile, probs=c(0.025,0.975))/10^6 final3 <- means final3[,] <- paste(round(means), " (", round(ci[1,,]), "-", round(ci[2,,]), ")", sep="") final3[c(2:4,7:8,11:12)] <- NA final3 ##### Probability density plot ##### costdf <- as.data.frame(as.table(apply(cost, c(1,3,4), sum)/1e9)) costdf <- costdf[is.na(costdf[,"Freq"])==FALSE,] plot4 <- ggplot(costdf, aes(x=Freq, y=..density.., fill=policy)) + geom_density(alpha=0.2, adjust=4) + scale_x_continuous(expression("Cost ("*10^9*"€)")) + scale_y_continuous("Density") + facet_wrap(~Year) plot4 ##### Expected Value of Perfect Information ##### evpi <- (apply(apply(cost, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE), c(1,3), min, na.rm=TRUE) - apply(apply(cost, c(1,2,4), min, na.rm=TRUE), c(2,3), mean, na.rm=TRUE))/1e6 plot5 <- as.data.frame(as.table(apply(evpi, 2, sum))) plot5 <- ggplot(plot5, aes(Var1, weight=Freq)) + geom_bar(position="dodge") + scale_x_discrete("Year") + scale_y_continuous("Value of perfect information (M€)") plot5 ##### Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information ##### #Same as that of perfect information, because of only one decision variable ae <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Erac2499") aer <- DataframeToArray(ae) aer <- aer[,,c(2,1,4,5),] dropnonmax <- function(x) { x[x<max(x, na.rm = TRUE)] <- NA return(x) } aer <- apply(aer, c(1,2,4), dropnonmax) aer <- as.data.frame(as.table(aer)) aer <- aer[,c(2,3,1,4,5)] colnames(aer)[3] <- "policy" aer <- aer[is.na(aer[,"Freq"])==FALSE,] aer <- IntArray(aer, cost, "Cost") aer <- DataframeToArray(aer[,c("obs","Country","Year","Cost")],"Cost") test2 <- (apply(apply(cost, c(2,3,4), mean, na.rm=TRUE), c(1,3), min, na.rm=TRUE) - apply(aer, c(2,3), mean))/1e6 plot6 <- as.data.frame(as.table(apply(test2, 2, sum))) plot6 <- ggplot(plot6, aes(Var1, weight=Freq)) + geom_bar(position="dodge") + scale_x_discrete("Year") + scale_y_continuous("Value of perfect information (M€)") plot6 test2==evpi #test whether the values are the same
See also
Keywords
Dampness, indoor air, asthma, Europe
References
Related files
<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>