Difference between revisions of "DARM DA study exercise group 3"

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:We want to assess whether the installation of thermal scanners (and performance of PCR flu tests if fever is detected) in the Finnish airports, harbours and other border controls is a good measure to prevent the illness from spreading.  
 
:We want to assess whether the installation of thermal scanners (and performance of PCR flu tests if fever is detected) in the Finnish airports, harbours and other border controls is a good measure to prevent the illness from spreading.  
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The purpose of this assessment is to find out if the thermal scanners could be used for preventing the spreding of swine flu to Finland. What are the benefits of using thermal scanners?  
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:The purpose of this assessment is to find out if the thermal scanners could be used for preventing the spreding of swine flu to Finland.
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<b>Can thermal scanners combined with PCR tests prevent the spreading of swine flu to Finland?
  
 
{{comment|# |Part of this purpose statement could be moved below under the boundaries description. Trying to formulate the purpose as an explicit question (at can probably be answered) might be useful for sharpening the focus of the analysis. Perhaps something like: What are the costs and benefits of a thermal scanning + possible PCR flu testing -procedure for all incoming passengers to Finland? (also consider: benefits in terms of what? costs in terms of what?|--[[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko Pohjola]] 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)}}
 
{{comment|# |Part of this purpose statement could be moved below under the boundaries description. Trying to formulate the purpose as an explicit question (at can probably be answered) might be useful for sharpening the focus of the analysis. Perhaps something like: What are the costs and benefits of a thermal scanning + possible PCR flu testing -procedure for all incoming passengers to Finland? (also consider: benefits in terms of what? costs in terms of what?|--[[User:Mikko Pohjola|Mikko Pohjola]] 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)}}

Revision as of 15:54, 27 March 2011



For some guidance see the discussion page: D↷

Since travel restriction for an indetermined period of time is an unrealistic measure, more feasible tools to control the spreading of the swine flu to Finland are needed. We propose the use of thermal scanners combined with a PCR flu test. The symptoms of swine flu are similar to regular flu symptoms. The most common symptoms include a sudden fever, a sore throat, cough and a runny nose. The incubation period for influenza (the time between infection and appearance of symptoms) is usually 2–3 days, but symptoms may start 1–7 days from contamination. Laboratory tests are required to confirm whether a person has been infected with influenza A(H1N1)virus.

Because fever is one of the most common symtom of swine, the idea of using thermal-image scanners to prevent swine spreding, is to spot people with risen body temperature and check them for fever before they infected others. The thermal scanners could be set up at airports and other border control points for checking all incoming travellers.

Purpose

We want to assess whether the installation of thermal scanners (and performance of PCR flu tests if fever is detected) in the Finnish airports, harbours and other border controls is a good measure to prevent the illness from spreading.
The purpose of this assessment is to find out if the thermal scanners could be used for preventing the spreding of swine flu to Finland.

Can thermal scanners combined with PCR tests prevent the spreading of swine flu to Finland?

--# : Part of this purpose statement could be moved below under the boundaries description. Trying to formulate the purpose as an explicit question (at can probably be answered) might be useful for sharpening the focus of the analysis. Perhaps something like: What are the costs and benefits of a thermal scanning + possible PCR flu testing -procedure for all incoming passengers to Finland? (also consider: benefits in terms of what? costs in terms of what? --Mikko Pohjola 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)

Boundaries

Our assessment takes place in the moment (end of April 2009) when swine flu was starting to spread from Mexico, but no cases had yet been detected in Finland. At that time, The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not issued any travel restrictions to the affected areas. The scanners would be placed in the Finnish airports, harbours and other border control points and all the passengers arriving to Finland abroad would be scanned. The scanning would be continued untill the decision about swine flu vaccination campaign in Finland will be made.

Scenarios

  • Swine flu incubation takes 5 days on average (2 to 7 days)
  • Symptoms last for XX days on average
  • Fever is considered to be a temperature over 37,8 C
  • Sensitvity of the PCR swine flu test: 50% (30-70%)
  • Specificity of the PCR swine flu test: 99%

←# Also this looks to me mostly like specifics of boundary definition. --Mikko Pohjola 16:04, 25 March 2011 (EET)

⇤# : I would rather say that these are other variables in your causal chain. There are properties related to swine flu, and you need to learn about them to be able to make an assessment. You cannot decide the value of these things, they are what they are. The exception is the temperature threshold for further action, which can be adjusted by the person who uses the scanner. --Jouni 07:37, 27 March 2011 (EEST)

Intended users

The Finnish Ministry of Social Affairs and Health
The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
The Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications

--# : This seems to state who will be scanned. Describe here who will/should be using the information that is/will produced by this decision analysis. --Mikko Pohjola 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)

Participants

Group 3 of Darm-course 2011: Bate, Carmen, and Minna 
   * Participants are those who may participate in the making of the assessment. 
     The minimum group of people for a successful assessment is always described. 
     If some groups must be excluded, this must be explicitly motivated.

--# : You can describe both who participate in making the plan and who should be participating in making the actual decision analysis study. --Mikko Pohjola 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)

Definition

Causal diagram
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Add a legend for you diagram.

Decision variables

Use of thermal scanners or not

Indicators

   * Indicators: outcome variables of interest.

--# : What does the scanning have impact on? what do you need to find out in order to answer your assessment question (also see the comment under purpose sub-attribute). --Mikko Pohjola 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)

Other variables

   * Other variables: any variables that link to the causal network and are within the boundaries of the assessment.

Calculation

--# : Try to identify a) the variables that are needed to make a continuous causal chain from decision variable(s) to indicator(s), b) possible other variables needed to estimate the indicator result(s). Based on this you can consider how the calculation could be done (if you had the numbers) --Mikko Pohjola 15:56, 25 March 2011 (EET)

Analyses

EXTRA
* Analyses: statistical and other analyses that contain two or more variables, e.g. optimizing.

Result

References

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